May 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
txbear
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Re: May 2021

Post by txbear » Tue May 04, 2021 8:07 am

hrrr_2021050412_002_29.83--95.91.png
Still working on understanding Skew-Ts, but this seems like a rough set up for hail. CAPE > 3300, no cap, and elevated shear.

Disclaimer: promets and experts feel free to correct me on what I'm seeing.

Cpv17
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Re: May 2021

Post by Cpv17 » Tue May 04, 2021 8:10 am

txbear wrote:
Tue May 04, 2021 8:07 am
hrrr_2021050412_002_29.83--95.91.png

Still working on understanding Skew-Ts, but this seems like a rough set up for hail. CAPE > 3300, no cap, and elevated shear.

Disclaimer: promets and experts feel free to correct me on what I'm seeing.
I would love to understand how to read those. I’m clueless lol

txbear
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Re: May 2021

Post by txbear » Tue May 04, 2021 8:14 am

Cpv17 wrote:
Tue May 04, 2021 8:10 am
txbear wrote:
Tue May 04, 2021 8:07 am
hrrr_2021050412_002_29.83--95.91.png

Still working on understanding Skew-Ts, but this seems like a rough set up for hail. CAPE > 3300, no cap, and elevated shear.

Disclaimer: promets and experts feel free to correct me on what I'm seeing.
I would love to understand how to read those. I’m clueless lol
Same here! I'm running off limited searches on NWS, SPC, etc. to get some intro knowledge, but would really like to get a much better idea of what I'm seeing in these things.

- I see surfaced based CAPE (energy levels) in the data below the actual chart
- The spread from the red air temp line and the lifted parcel dotted white line is decently big (anything near or to the right of the dotted line would be capped environment)
- Wind barbs out of the SW and increasing in strength particularly at 700mb
- Shear value from SFC - 3km just below the chart has a value of 29; which is conducive for supercells.

But like I said, open to correction and help!

BlueJay
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Re: May 2021

Post by BlueJay » Tue May 04, 2021 8:29 am

Rumbling of thunder and darkening of skies in The Woodlands.

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jasons2k
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Re: May 2021

Post by jasons2k » Tue May 04, 2021 8:58 am

There a lot of good online tutorials on YouTube now.

We also have a sub-forum on Storm2k dedicated to meteorology with lots of useful information.

Rumbles of thunder here too. Looking to see if an outflow gets spit out this way. The storm to the north/northwest is not what it was, either (thankfully)

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don
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Re: May 2021

Post by don » Tue May 04, 2021 9:06 am

txbear wrote:
Tue May 04, 2021 8:07 am
hrrr_2021050412_002_29.83--95.91.png

Still working on understanding Skew-Ts, but this seems like a rough set up for hail. CAPE > 3300, no cap, and elevated shear.

Disclaimer: promets and experts feel free to correct me on what I'm seeing.
Seems correct to me :), the main threat today will be large hail. There are new thunderstorms developing just to the east of I-35,that looks to be the beginning of the storm complex expected to move through over the next few hours.

Cromagnum
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Re: May 2021

Post by Cromagnum » Tue May 04, 2021 9:16 am

Already firing up on the north side of the area and more out west.

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jasons2k
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Re: May 2021

Post by jasons2k » Tue May 04, 2021 10:25 am

Outflow on the way. These showers moving-in are low-topped and can’t bust the cap, at least so far. Things could go boom or this party could be over real quick - the usual feast or famine.

Cromagnum
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Re: May 2021

Post by Cromagnum » Tue May 04, 2021 11:18 am

As soon as the cells get to the LA state line the storms are blowing up.

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jasons2k
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Re: May 2021

Post by jasons2k » Tue May 04, 2021 11:23 am

Just a thin line of showers here with .05”

That’s OK - we can dry out a little...emphasis on a little.

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