May 2021:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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don
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The HRRR is also is showing training tomorrow in localize spots.As a disturbance moves over the area from south central Texas.Definitely need to watch for street flooding issues tomorrow if the training pans out.12Z GFS is still showing significant rainfall totals.
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Scott747
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Cpv17 wrote: Sat May 15, 2021 10:57 am Again, I’m not too sure how reliable this model is but it’s going crazy with the rainfall in the next 48 hours:
The fv-3 was an upgraded version of the gfs based on the gfdl grid and released back in 2019.

The latest upgrade of the gfs that was released back in March is basically an upgrade of the fv-3.
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don
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12z EURO showing some localized spots getting up to 15 inches.
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don
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Exact rainfall amounts and locations are nearly impossible to forecast accurately this far out.What to take from the models right now is that the the setup is there for significant rainfall totals possibly over a widespread area,but it will be a couple of more days still before the forecasts is fine tuned more.
Cpv17
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Goodness, that’s a huge swath of land that rain will cover. The whole eastern two thirds or 3/4 of the state and much of Oklahoma basically. Big ticket event, no doubt.
Last edited by Cpv17 on Sat May 15, 2021 3:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
oleander
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Will any of the weather currently east of San Antonio and around Victoria make it here today/tonight?
Cpv17
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oleander wrote: Sat May 15, 2021 3:14 pm Will any of the weather currently east of San Antonio and around Victoria make it here today/tonight?
It doesn’t look like it. Short range models have that falling apart within the next few hours. Maybe some areas in the far western part of the viewing area could see a little bit out of it.
Cpv17
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Looks like the WPC has finally bought in, sorta:

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Dls2010r
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Geez. My dang yard looks like a lake
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