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Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon May 03, 2021 8:19 pm That stuff up towards Dallas is nasty.

So is that supercell directly over San Antonio. Baseball size hail and 60mph winds with that bad boy.

What is with the weather pattern where this really bad stuff is hitting the hill country every few days at the same time at night? Nothing seems to show up earlier in the day.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon May 03, 2021 8:40 pm What is with the weather pattern where this really bad stuff is hitting the hill country every few days at the same time at night? Nothing seems to show up earlier in the day.

Dry line

Local met future cast storms majority look to be all north. Figures. I only got .23” over the weekend. Then Tuesdays storms look promising till on cue, I see percentages slowly diminish on NWS for Beaumont. Was 90 and now 60%. Once again not holding my breath.

Dixie Alley set to do its thing again today. :-/

HRRR model is nasty for Harris County around lunchtime. Has a supercell right over Houston.

djmike wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 5:35 am Local met future cast storms majority look to be all north. Figures. I only got .23” over the weekend. Then Tuesdays storms look promising till on cue, I see percentages slowly diminish on NWS for Beaumont. Was 90 and now 60%. Once again not holding my breath.

I wouldn’t sweat it. It’s almost impossible to maintain a drought over in the Golden Triangle. The summer time storms will start soon enough.

Yep the HRRR is showing a potent storm this afternoon. SPC has just issued a Severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Texas.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 142
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
810 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
East/Southeast Texas
Coastal Waters

* Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 810 AM until
100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage
and intensity across portions of East/Southeast Texas through the
morning, with severe hail and isolated damaging winds as the primary
hazards.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles southwest of
College Station TX to 65 miles north northeast of Port Arthur TX.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon May 03, 2021 9:05 pm

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon May 03, 2021 8:40 pm What is with the weather pattern where this really bad stuff is hitting the hill country every few days at the same time at night? Nothing seems to show up earlier in the day.

Dry line

Yeah that was my thought as well...seemed like classic dryline set up. Now, I'm not sure how typical that feature is for as far south as San Antonio, but it's the common trigger (outside of fronts) from Central Texas and on north and west.

Looking out west, it’s gonna be close at this location. The current supercell might safely pass to the north.

Still working on understanding Skew-Ts, but this seems like a rough set up for hail. CAPE > 3300, no cap, and elevated shear.

Disclaimer: promets and experts feel free to correct me on what I'm seeing.

txbear wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 9:07 am hrrr_2021050412_002_29.83--95.91.png

Still working on understanding Skew-Ts, but this seems like a rough set up for hail. CAPE > 3300, no cap, and elevated shear.

Disclaimer: promets and experts feel free to correct me on what I'm seeing.

I would love to understand how to read those. I’m clueless lol

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 9:10 am

txbear wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 9:07 am hrrr_2021050412_002_29.83--95.91.png

Still working on understanding Skew-Ts, but this seems like a rough set up for hail. CAPE > 3300, no cap, and elevated shear.

Disclaimer: promets and experts feel free to correct me on what I'm seeing.

I would love to understand how to read those. I’m clueless lol

Same here! I'm running off limited searches on NWS, SPC, etc. to get some intro knowledge, but would really like to get a much better idea of what I'm seeing in these things.

- I see surfaced based CAPE (energy levels) in the data below the actual chart
- The spread from the red air temp line and the lifted parcel dotted white line is decently big (anything near or to the right of the dotted line would be capped environment)
- Wind barbs out of the SW and increasing in strength particularly at 700mb
- Shear value from SFC - 3km just below the chart has a value of 29; which is conducive for supercells.

But like I said, open to correction and help!

Rumbling of thunder and darkening of skies in The Woodlands.

There a lot of good online tutorials on YouTube now.

We also have a sub-forum on Storm2k dedicated to meteorology with lots of useful information.

Rumbles of thunder here too. Looking to see if an outflow gets spit out this way. The storm to the north/northwest is not what it was, either (thankfully)

txbear wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 9:07 am hrrr_2021050412_002_29.83--95.91.png

Still working on understanding Skew-Ts, but this seems like a rough set up for hail. CAPE > 3300, no cap, and elevated shear.

Disclaimer: promets and experts feel free to correct me on what I'm seeing.

Seems correct to me , the main threat today will be large hail. There are new thunderstorms developing just to the east of I-35,that looks to be the beginning of the storm complex expected to move through over the next few hours.

Already firing up on the north side of the area and more out west.

Outflow on the way. These showers moving-in are low-topped and can’t bust the cap, at least so far. Things could go boom or this party could be over real quick - the usual feast or famine.

As soon as the cells get to the LA state line the storms are blowing up.

Just a thin line of showers here with .05”

That’s OK - we can dry out a little...emphasis on a little.