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Re: May 2021

Posted: Tue May 04, 2021 9:07 am
by txbear
hrrr_2021050412_002_29.83--95.91.png
Still working on understanding Skew-Ts, but this seems like a rough set up for hail. CAPE > 3300, no cap, and elevated shear.

Disclaimer: promets and experts feel free to correct me on what I'm seeing.

Re: May 2021

Posted: Tue May 04, 2021 9:10 am
by Cpv17
txbear wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 9:07 am hrrr_2021050412_002_29.83--95.91.png

Still working on understanding Skew-Ts, but this seems like a rough set up for hail. CAPE > 3300, no cap, and elevated shear.

Disclaimer: promets and experts feel free to correct me on what I'm seeing.
I would love to understand how to read those. I’m clueless lol

Re: May 2021

Posted: Tue May 04, 2021 9:14 am
by txbear
Cpv17 wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 9:10 am
txbear wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 9:07 am hrrr_2021050412_002_29.83--95.91.png

Still working on understanding Skew-Ts, but this seems like a rough set up for hail. CAPE > 3300, no cap, and elevated shear.

Disclaimer: promets and experts feel free to correct me on what I'm seeing.
I would love to understand how to read those. I’m clueless lol
Same here! I'm running off limited searches on NWS, SPC, etc. to get some intro knowledge, but would really like to get a much better idea of what I'm seeing in these things.

- I see surfaced based CAPE (energy levels) in the data below the actual chart
- The spread from the red air temp line and the lifted parcel dotted white line is decently big (anything near or to the right of the dotted line would be capped environment)
- Wind barbs out of the SW and increasing in strength particularly at 700mb
- Shear value from SFC - 3km just below the chart has a value of 29; which is conducive for supercells.

But like I said, open to correction and help!

Re: May 2021

Posted: Tue May 04, 2021 9:29 am
by BlueJay
Rumbling of thunder and darkening of skies in The Woodlands.

Re: May 2021

Posted: Tue May 04, 2021 9:58 am
by jasons2k
There a lot of good online tutorials on YouTube now.

We also have a sub-forum on Storm2k dedicated to meteorology with lots of useful information.

Rumbles of thunder here too. Looking to see if an outflow gets spit out this way. The storm to the north/northwest is not what it was, either (thankfully)

Re: May 2021

Posted: Tue May 04, 2021 10:06 am
by don
txbear wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 9:07 am hrrr_2021050412_002_29.83--95.91.png

Still working on understanding Skew-Ts, but this seems like a rough set up for hail. CAPE > 3300, no cap, and elevated shear.

Disclaimer: promets and experts feel free to correct me on what I'm seeing.
Seems correct to me :), the main threat today will be large hail. There are new thunderstorms developing just to the east of I-35,that looks to be the beginning of the storm complex expected to move through over the next few hours.

Re: May 2021

Posted: Tue May 04, 2021 10:16 am
by Cromagnum
Already firing up on the north side of the area and more out west.

Re: May 2021

Posted: Tue May 04, 2021 11:25 am
by jasons2k
Outflow on the way. These showers moving-in are low-topped and can’t bust the cap, at least so far. Things could go boom or this party could be over real quick - the usual feast or famine.

Re: May 2021

Posted: Tue May 04, 2021 12:18 pm
by Cromagnum
As soon as the cells get to the LA state line the storms are blowing up.

Re: May 2021

Posted: Tue May 04, 2021 12:23 pm
by jasons2k
Just a thin line of showers here with .05”

That’s OK - we can dry out a little...emphasis on a little.

Re: May 2021

Posted: Tue May 04, 2021 12:38 pm
by jasons2k
Cromagnum wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 12:18 pm As soon as the cells get to the LA state line the storms are blowing up.
Right? And yes, like clockwork, the cell by IAH busts through as soon as the line passed.

Re: May 2021

Posted: Tue May 04, 2021 12:48 pm
by txbear
Think the HRRR got the storms right in general, location was off though with the biggest cluster going north and east...sound familiar? Models are models, not crystal balls.

Cap must be pretty stout south and west considering the dynamics in play. A little more in rain to add to the "reserve tank" in preparation for summer would've been nice.

Re: May 2021

Posted: Tue May 04, 2021 1:05 pm
by Cpv17
txbear wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 12:48 pm Think the HRRR got the storms right in general, location was off though with the biggest cluster going north and east...sound familiar? Models are models, not crystal balls.

Cap must be pretty stout south and west considering the dynamics in play. A little more in rain to add to the "reserve tank" in preparation for summer would've been nice.
Maybe next week. Rest of this week looks dry.

Re: May 2021

Posted: Tue May 04, 2021 2:39 pm
by don
Models are showing a stormy pattern again next week as a slow moving front stalls near the coast.With disturbances moving over the state in the northwest flow aloft.We'll see if the trends continue...

Re: May 2021

Posted: Tue May 04, 2021 3:15 pm
by jasons2k
Oh it’s only 10 degrees warmer than forecast....nothing to see here....

Re: May 2021

Posted: Tue May 04, 2021 3:30 pm
by djmike
A whole lot of nothing for me in Beaumont. Knew it. Well 2 maaaaaybe 3 drops.

Re: May 2021

Posted: Tue May 04, 2021 5:31 pm
by Cpv17
don wrote: Tue May 04, 2021 2:39 pm Models are showing a stormy pattern again next week as a slow moving front stalls near the coast.With disturbances moving over the state in the northwest flow aloft.We'll see if the trends continue...
The CPC is seeing this as well:

Image

Image

Image

Definitely looks like a wet pattern could be in the works.

Re: May 2021

Posted: Wed May 05, 2021 6:59 am
by Cromagnum
Feels really nice outside this morning.

Re: May 2021

Posted: Wed May 05, 2021 10:42 am
by unome
Texas' dry-line weather on May 3rd made the NOAA / NESDIS Image of the Day

with a great explaination of dry-line storm formation

https://twitter.com/NOAASatellites/stat ... 2673552389
https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/content/goe ... s-dry-line

Image

Re: May 2021

Posted: Fri May 07, 2021 10:28 pm
by DoctorMu
If it feels hotter and in the last decade WHEN it (finally) rains it pours (like Harvey and Memorial Day? events), then you're right!

https://www.chron.com/weather/article/g ... 6a35e392f3