June 2021:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Your absolutely right blake, most likely this will stay a weak to moderate system, but then again stranger things have happened in the gulf in years past, definitely bears watching
User avatar
Texaspirate11
Posts: 1278
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
Contact:

KHOU BLake wrote: Sat Jun 12, 2021 9:59 pm With the SAL layer moving in, wind shear AND the fact that the circulation is so broad, I find it hard to believe this would become much more than a low grade tropical storm--at least the way it looks to me now. If this is a shrimpy system then landfall will be irrelevant with as most of the rain will be east of the center.
Thank you
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Harveyvsallison
Posts: 51
Joined: Fri Jun 11, 2021 3:39 pm
Contact:

It’s still early !!!! Models will shift
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Harveyvsallison wrote: Sat Jun 12, 2021 10:21 pm It’s still early !!!! Models will shift
Just how many kats with the same i.p. address are there? :lol:
davidiowx
Posts: 1062
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2014 2:39 pm
Location: Richmond, TX
Contact:

DoctorMu wrote: Sat Jun 12, 2021 10:34 pm
Harveyvsallison wrote: Sat Jun 12, 2021 10:21 pm It’s still early !!!! Models will shift
Just how many kats with the same i.p. address are there? :lol:
Lmao! It doesn’t even need that truth to tell it’s the same person.. oh the humanity
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

00z ICON has trended further west, has a tropical storm just off the Texas coast
Kingwood36
Posts: 1592
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
Location: Freeport
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Sat Jun 12, 2021 11:13 pm 00z ICON has trended further west, has a tropical storm just off the Texas coast
Icon is trash not a good tropical model
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Kingwood36 I know its not good, but the trend today in the models has been further to the west, so we will see what the other modes show
Cpv17
Posts: 5235
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Kingwood36 wrote: Sat Jun 12, 2021 11:27 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Sat Jun 12, 2021 11:13 pm 00z ICON has trended further west, has a tropical storm just off the Texas coast
Icon is trash not a good tropical model
Ehhh it’s not one of the best models but it’s not the worst either.
Stormlover2020
Posts: 457
Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:04 pm
Contact:

Gfs shifted way farther east
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

At this point I dont think we can trust any of the models, wish a circulation would form so all of this dang flip flopping would stop
Kingwood36
Posts: 1592
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
Location: Freeport
Contact:

Lol...haven't we been saying this for the longest 😩
Stormlover2020
Posts: 457
Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:04 pm
Contact:

Lol yep that’s what we been saying, throw the models out right now
Kingwood36
Posts: 1592
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
Location: Freeport
Contact:

Until there is a well defined coc...models are pointless...period and ppl who moan and groan over every single swing west or east gets annoying after a while
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Oh im not groaning but it is really annoying with all the model flip flopping going on
Kingwood36
Posts: 1592
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
Location: Freeport
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Sun Jun 13, 2021 12:11 am Oh im not groaning but it is really annoying with all the model flip flopping going on
Didn't say it was you
User avatar
Rip76
Posts: 1787
Joined: Mon Feb 15, 2010 12:38 am
Location: The Woodlands
Contact:

DoctorMu wrote: Sat Jun 12, 2021 10:34 pm
Harveyvsallison wrote: Sat Jun 12, 2021 10:21 pm It’s still early !!!! Models will shift
Just how many kats with the same i.p. address are there? :lol:
Gold, Jerry... Gold :)
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

NHC has increased development odds to 50% now
User avatar
don
Posts: 2576
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

Still have a ways to go before more is none with the outcome of this system.As there is no defined center yet,and still a lack of consistency from run to run. 0z GFS had the storm hitting southeast Louisiana. While the 6z shifted to the west meandering the storm off the Texas coast before being picked up by a trough into southwest Louisiana. Expect more flip flopping over the next few days.But i think by mid week we should have a much better idea on how everything will play out.As there is more room for error than normal with this forecast because of the nature of gyre's and their lack of a defined center, instead consisting of multiple centers or vorticities. And whichever vorticity eventually becomes dominant can have big implications on track.
Attachments
Screenshot 2021-06-13 at 07-10-10 Models GFS — Pivotal Weather.png
Screenshot 2021-06-13 at 07-10-01 Models GFS — Pivotal Weather.png
Dls2010r
Posts: 160
Joined: Sat Dec 01, 2018 6:21 am
Contact:

Don what are the 2 pics?
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot] and 76 guests