June 2021:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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DoctorMu wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 7:34 pm https://youtu.be/iZXgQrPAgRw
One of the best. I'm privileged to say I've seen him live - a bucket-list item checked-off about 8-ish years ago. It was one of the best shows I've been to. Not just the music but also the vibe and the atmosphere.

It's still 92 degrees outside here at the casa. I'm afraid August is going to be hell for us.
Cpv17
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I’ve been having issues with my a/c recently as well. You’re not alone. I’m not sure what the heck is going on. Been in the 80’s several times in the past week inside my house with the temp set to 76.
davidiowx
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^ sounds like a Freon issue.

Have had some nice showers, lots of lightning and thunder this evening. The best is the cool winds coming down. I had .4” last night and right at .2” so far. The cool breeze is just amazing as the wife and I watch the Astros continue this whoopin on the Rangers :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Cpv17
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davidiowx wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 8:07 pm ^ sounds like a Freon issue.

Have had some nice showers, lots of lightning and thunder this evening. The best is the cool winds coming down. I had .4” last night and right at .2” so far. The cool breeze is just amazing as the wife and I watch the Astros continue this whoopin on the Rangers :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
A/c company has been out here twice and haven’t found anything. Been working fine at night when the temps have cooled but during the day it wasn’t keeping up. But the past 2-3 days it’s been working fine. No clue.
Dls2010r
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It’s the dang coil. It’s ordered. Just taking too long. It’s even under warranty
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sambucol
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Dls2010r wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 8:21 pm It’s the dang coil. It’s ordered. Just taking too long. It’s even under warranty
Go buy a small window unit to cool one room until the parts arrive. Then keep the window unit to run on a generator in the event we have a hurricane that knocks out power. That’s what I did for Ike. Went to Home Depot and bought a generator, mini fridge, and had a small window ac. Left the generator in the box in case I didn’t need it. Turns out I did need everything I had bought. Maybe using a small ac will help keep you cool until the parts arrive.
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djmike
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Thats what I had to do last year. Buy a window unit to help my central AC cool the house in these 95-100 temps. Its done wonders. I have a NEST so I check throughout the day while at work and highest temp inside today was 73. Without my window unit to help out, yeah it would have been in the 80s inside. When fall arrives, just take it out of the window and store it till next year. I have central Ac and heat but I also bought two small window units for hurricane season to plug into my generator. It saved me and my elderly mother and family last year when we got hit and had no power for a week. I will ALWAYS have window units on hand. Assist my AC during extreme temps and life saving during hurricane season. I tell ALL my family and friends to have one available and on standby. Dont need to use it, just have it for emergencies. We cooled two rooms, shut the doors and it was like the central AC power was never off. Plugged in some lamps, fridge, cable boxes and tvs and we were good to go!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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DoctorMu
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Really good idea about window unit + generator. I think this is in our future with the Texas grid undependable.
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sambucol
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DoctorMu wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 9:12 pm Really good idea about window unit + generator. I think this is in our future with the Texas grid undependable.
Yep. Me too. It’s better to have it on hand and not need it rather than need it and not have it.
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Rip76
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Man, not even an outflow boundary out here tonight for a cool-down.
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DoctorMu
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Rip76 wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 9:39 pm Man, not even an outflow boundary out here tonight for a cool-down.
It didn't really get hot with the DP in the 60s until about 6 pm. Sun continued to beat down and the DP rose.
MH5
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Katdaddy wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 7:38 pm A few seabreeze thunderstorms this evening that will make a beautiful sunset for some and a wet sunset for others.
Caught the beautiful side of it here!
90EF3E16-CA00-4642-A6E2-577FA69006BD.jpeg
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Rip76
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That’s killer.
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djmike
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Latest 80-90% development hatched area from NHC looks to be angled more towards Houston to Vermilion Bay area. Have not hd a chance to look at latest models yet. Just making a quick visual notice.
Mike
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don
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I expect a landfall around Vermilion Bay in south central Louisiana.Due to a center reformation that the models show taking place north of the Yucatan.The tropical models shows what could happen if the current area of low pressure staid dominate, instead of a center reformation to the north.But that is not expected to happen, as a new center should reform near the heavier convection.
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djmike
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One thing for sure is this storm will need to start hauling butt if its to start nearing landfall Fri-Sat timeframe. Has it even begun its northward trek?
Mike
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jasons2k
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Update from Jeff Lindner:
There has been little change to the overall structure of 92L since yesterday morning. There continues to be a broad area of surface low pressure at the southern end of a trough axis that extends NE across the Gulf of Mexico toward the central Gulf coast. An upper level trough and large mass of dry air is located over the extreme western Gulf of Mexico resulting in W/SW shear across the broad surface pressure minimum and trough axis. 92L remains very disorganized and convection scattered in clusters mainly across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan.

Global models continue to suggest that a more consolidated surface low pressure system will form with 92L and move northward in the general direction of Louisiana over the next 24-48 hours. Where any more defined surface low may form is still in question, but the general model consensus continues to keep the majority of the impacts east of SE TX and aimed toward the central and eastern US Gulf coast.

Local Impacts:
Minimal impacts are expected as the tropical system passes generally SE and E of our area. Winds will begin to back to the E and NE later today into Friday and increase into the 20-25kt range over the coastal waters mainly east of Galveston. Seas will build into the 4-6 ft range Friday into Saturday. The combination of NE surface winds and building offshore swells will yield increasing tides along the upper TX coast, but guidance is keeping values in the 3-4 ft range for total water level or about 1.0-1.5 feet above normal. This is generally below levels that cause any significant issues. Would not be surprised to see a bit of run-up at times of high tide near the vulnerable east end of Bolivar and some minor flooding. Rain chances will increase from the SE starting Friday afternoon and linger into Saturday, but there will likely be a sharp gradient with any rainfall with 92L over SE TX with mainly areas ESE of Galveston Bay having the better chances of squalls moving onshore as drier air wraps into the west side of the system.

Moisture values actually increase more late in the weekend into early next week as 92L pulls NE away from the area and a cool front approaches from the north. We may actually see better chances of active weather early next week than with 92L locally.
Cromagnum
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Been said a few times before, but NEXT
Stratton20
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12z Spaghetti plot models on tropical tidbits are still aimed at Texas, I will continue to say this very Clearly, do not expect anything from this system, whether thats a center reformation and its track, do not expect or assume anything. Mother Nature doesnt always follow what the computer models say, yall cant just base this track off just the global models, they have been wrong before, the hurricane center likes to follow the TVCN model as its usually one they rely on to make forecasted tracks with (usually) another good model the UKMET is also aimed at Texas. It aint over till its over, despite what jeff said and hes a great meteorologist by the way, absolutely cannot discount these spaghetti plots though
Last edited by Stratton20 on Thu Jun 17, 2021 10:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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