June 2021:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cromagnum
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Rip76 wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 3:59 pm Image
Blast furnace engage for us.
Dls2010r
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GEEZ!!!!!!!!!
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Rip76
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Cromagnum wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 4:09 pm
Rip76 wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 3:59 pm Image
Blast furnace engage for us.
Yes sir. Get ready for a week of Hades.
Really a bummer for weather lovers. Well, not the ones in Pensacola. 😀
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jasons2k
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From Jeff Lindner a while ago:
At 400pm a tropical storm warning has been issued for the US Gulf coast from Intracoastal City, LA to the FL/AL state line.

Both satellite derived wind products and the early afternoon USAF mission confirm that 92L has a broad low pressure center over the south-central Gulf of Mexico with winds generally in the 25 kt range. The current organizational structure is that below what is classifiable as a tropical cyclone, however global models continue to insist that a tropical cyclone will form in the next 12-24 hours and make landfall along the central US Gulf coast. Given the proximity of the system to landfall on the US Gulf coast, the potential tropical cyclone advisories along with tropical storm warnings have been issued with this system. Besides now an official product from the National Hurricane Center, there has been little change to the forecasting thinking today and the good model consensus continues to take the developing tropical system well east of SE TX with most of the weather and impacts focused east of the center toward the central and eastern US Gulf coast.

Any impacts to SE TX are expected to be minimal with some increase in coastal tides (likely below) levels that would cause any significant coastal flooding and an increase in showers near and east of Galveston Bay.
Cpv17
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I’ve pretty much been over this system since Saturday. Like Jason said, the writings been on the table with this one for a while already. No sense in talking about it anymore. Looking for the next potential system that could give us some excitement!
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jasons2k
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Well that 60% chance of rain “likely” on Tuesday has been lowered to a 40% “chance” now. Still a long way to go on that one.
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snowman65
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sounds like some people in here are disappointed when hurricanes dont hit us...I dont get it...do they actually enjoy destruction?
Stratton20
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Wel tbh Id rather us take a hit from a hurricane than Lousiana, these folks dont need anymore tropical trouble, but still I dont think those people wanted us to get hit, maybe they just wanted some rain?
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Rip76
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snowman65 wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 5:55 pm sounds like some people in here are disappointed when hurricanes dont hit us...I dont get it...do they actually enjoy destruction?
A Hurricane no way.
A minimum tropical storm, I’ll take.
Cpv17
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Rip76 wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 6:05 pm
snowman65 wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 5:55 pm sounds like some people in here are disappointed when hurricanes dont hit us...I dont get it...do they actually enjoy destruction?
A Hurricane no way.
A minimum tropical storm, I’ll take.
Exactly! Tropical storm Bill was a great example a few years ago. I took basically a direct hit from it. Got about 8” of rain and 40-50mph winds. It was awesome!
Cpv17
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snowman65 wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 5:55 pm sounds like some people in here are disappointed when hurricanes dont hit us...I dont get it...do they actually enjoy destruction?
Many of us on here are major weather enthusiasts. We get very excited when bad weather comes our way. I know I do! I’m like a kid in a candy store. Crazy wild weather and sports are my two biggest passions in my life. Now I don’t exactly wish or want for anything to get destroyed or for anyone to get hurt but I’m always down for some crazy weather but there’s a line I have to draw when it comes to that. If it’s going to cause a lot of damage then no thanks!
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djmike
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As long as I have followed Tropical weather, 30+ years. I think this is the first time Ive ever seen NHC issue a cone to one place when the models are still pointing to another. Wow. I know I know. It’s because of the center reformation and models are STILL confused. And yes its going to La. I know why. BUT...I just have never seen models go one place and an official cone going different. Has this happened before?
Mike
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(IH-10 & College Street)
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Katdaddy
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Cpv17 wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 6:20 pm
snowman65 wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 5:55 pm sounds like some people in here are disappointed when hurricanes dont hit us...I dont get it...do they actually enjoy destruction?
Many of us on here are major weather enthusiasts. We get very excited when bad weather comes our way. I know I do! I’m like a kid in a candy store. Crazy wild weather and sports are my two biggest passions in my life. Now I don’t exactly wish or want for anything to get destroyed or for anyone to get hurt but I’m always down for some crazy weather but there’s a line I have to draw when it comes to that. If it’s going to cause a lot of damage then no thanks!
Very well stated Cpv17 and could not state it any better. I feel the exact same way.
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Rip76
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Thinking back in my life of watching tropical systems, the one storm for me (growing up near Galveston), that I would say was the perfect scenario was Claudette in 2003. Right amount of wind and rain for a lover of tropical weather. And maybe Jerry in 1989. (I rode out Jerry in a lawn chair in my friend’s front yard having a couple of Long Island Teas. I wasn’t 21.
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DoctorMu
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djmike wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 6:50 pm As long as I have followed Tropical weather, 30+ years. I think this is the first time Ive ever seen NHC issue a cone to one place when the models are still pointing to another. Wow. I know I know. It’s because of the center reformation and models are STILL confused. And yes its going to La. I know why. BUT...I just have never seen models go one place and an official cone going different. Has this happened before?
As a rank amateur but another enthusiast (I might have been a meteorologist if my alma mater had the major) I'm within 50 mi of the NHC prediction. 8-)
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jasons2k
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DoctorMu wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 8:44 pm
djmike wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 6:50 pm As long as I have followed Tropical weather, 30+ years. I think this is the first time Ive ever seen NHC issue a cone to one place when the models are still pointing to another. Wow. I know I know. It’s because of the center reformation and models are STILL confused. And yes its going to La. I know why. BUT...I just have never seen models go one place and an official cone going different. Has this happened before?
As a rank amateur but another enthusiast (I might have been a meteorologist if my alma mater had the major) I'm within 50 mi of the NHC prediction. 8-)
Close enough. Your 500mb height chart is off by 24-hours at landfall, so we won't hold it against you :lol: :lol:
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DoctorMu
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TBF, it works at landfall, too. :lol:
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Cpv17
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The long range GFS has been hinting at another system entering the Gulf in about 2 weeks from now. Probably won’t happen but thought it was worth mentioning.
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djmike
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Ok, Im over 92L. Next...

So what’s moisture looking like for this upcoming Sunday through Tuesday? NWS LC is showing 70% coverage for Beaumont, so hopefully its it doest get chipped away day by day as we get closer which now seems to be the new norm in our area of TX.
Mike
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Stratton20
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CPV17 Anything beyond 7-10 days in the GFS just gets ignored , not even worth watching
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