June 2021:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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The first month of Summer. Shall it be hot? Shall it be rainy? We shall see.
Cpv17
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tireman4 wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 8:01 am The first month of Summer. Shall it be hot? Shall it be rainy? We shall see.
Hopefully rainy.
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Katdaddy
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Hopefully no visitors from the tropics. PCH&H as Tom Siler the “Weather Wizard” said many years ago on Ch 11.
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DoctorMu
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Won't happen, but more of the same please!
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DoctorMu
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DoctorMu wrote: Mon May 31, 2021 11:08 am Won't happen, but more of the same please!
...or maybe so through mid-month. 80s and chance of rain through June 14. 8-)
Cpv17
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The latest 12z runs by the GFS and the Euro are pretty much complete washouts. I think we could be dealing with some more flash flood watches possibly as soon as Wednesday.
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srainhoutx
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I talked to my Family back in SE Texas today. I let them know that we are suffering with low temperatures in the 40's the past couple of days here in the Smokies. It's been a very mild Spring and early Summer for you Texas folk as well as here in the Mountains!
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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Monday evening weather briefing from Jeff:

After a few drier days…wet weather will return as soon as Tuesday and last into next week.

Overall upcoming pattern is similar to the heavy rains of last week and similar patterns of 2015 an 2016 with a slow moving and at times cut off upper level low over the SW US which will send multiple disturbances across TX starting today and lasting into early next week. Influx of Gulf of Mexico moisture will remain steady as onshore winds provide a continuous supply of low level moisture into the region. PWS will hover in the 1.75-2.0 inch range for much of the week helping to ensure efficient rainfall production. As disturbances eject out of NE MX and into C and SC TX nearly daily, clusters and complexes of thunderstorms will develop and move E or SE over the region. When exactly each disturbance will rotate out of MX is uncertain and what state the local air mass will be ahead of each disturbance can also be hard to determine when dealing with large thunderstorm complexes (MCS).

Point is that the pattern will support complexes and clusters of thunderstorms nearly at any time from Tuesday onward with both a heavy rainfall and marginal severe weather threat. Some days will likely have higher threats on both heavy rainfall and severe weather depending on local mesoscale factors and timing of disturbances aloft.

Widespread rainfall of 3-5 inches is likely over the next several days, and while the initial logical is the spread such totals out evenly over the course of 5-7 days, that is usually not how it works here this time of year and 1-3 inches may fall in a few hours or less as clusters and complexes move across the region. Grounds are still wet from the 10-15 inches of rainfall in May over the region and it will not take much rainfall to result in run-off and renewed rises on area watersheds…especially as the rainfall totals accumulate over time.

Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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DoctorMu
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More 80s and wet through possibly mid-month.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
640 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

Confidence is quite high in the broad idea of unsettled weather
tonight into tomorrow as a convective system comes in from the
north, and shower/storm chances continue with a front sweeping
through tomorrow. The specifics of how this plays out is much less
certain. As a result, have broad windows of VCSH/VCTS at most
sites, especially from IAH northward. Refinements will gradually
try to whittle down times for storms to more narrow windows in
coming cycles, but would rather err on the side of caution for now
rather than potentially have to make dramatic changes later
tonight/tomorrow morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 310 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021/...

.SHORT TERM [This Afternoon Through Tuesday Night]...

Currently, moderate low-level onshore flow has helped increase cloud
and moisture across southeast Texas. Much like yesterday, isolated
showers have developed west of I-45 where this onshore temperature
and moisture advection is the strongest. With daytime temperatures
peaking later this afternoon, expect some of these showers to
strengthen into thunderstorms that will soon diminish after sunset
when temperatures begin to cool.

Overnight, higher rain chances return as an upper-level trough digs
deeper into the Southwest US where its western flank will leave a
cutoff low over the Baja Peninsula. This cutoff low will begin our
period of prolonged wet weather this week. The remaining trough will
push a cold front across Texas overnight where it is expected to
reach our northern counties a few hours before sunrise. Hi-res
models differ on where this front will stall throughout the day,
with some deterministic solutions indicating as far south as Harris
County, but most models predict it will stay draped across our
northern counties as it dissipates through Tuesday evening. SPC has
placed Houston, Polk, and Trinity counties in a marginal risk for
thunderstorms tomorrow. With the frontal boundary stalled overhead
and breaks in the cloud cover leading to surface heating, some
strong to severe afternoon thunderstorms are possible for these
counties. With strengthening onshore flow across the rest of our
counties, isolated pulse showers and thunderstorms are also possible
tomorrow afternoon, especially in areas where breaks in the cloud
cover lead to the most daytime heating. Temperatures tomorrow will
be similar to today`s with daytime highs reaching the mid-80s and
overnight lows in the very muggy 70s.

KBL


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...

Periods of showers and thunderstorms can be expected through much
of the long term period as a slow moving upper low currently near
the Baja California area gradually works its way toward Texas. A
series of shortwaves will be moving across the state, and with a
persistent onshore flow in place expect these currently hard to
time impulses to bring the state a lot more rain. Our area`s best
chances look like they might end up at the end of the week and
especially over the weekend when the low works its way into the
state and becomes an even slower mover. The positioning of the low
and how fast (or slow?) it moves will become a major player as to
any chances of locally heavy rainfall and how much rain our area
eventually receives.

For now, in the short and long term periods combined (roughly over
the next eight days), look for widespread 2 to 4 inch rainfall
totals with isolated amounts possibly exceeding 5 inches for
potentially a large part of the area. As you well know, 2 to 4
inch rains in Southeast Texas can easily fall in a hour or less,
and if this happens over the same area over several rounds of
storms, flooding could easily become a threat. Stay tuned to the
forecasts as the week progresses (they can easily and significantly
change) and monitor how much rain falls/accumulates in and near
your area. Grounds have been wet across much of Southeast Texas
these past couple of weeks, and it will probably not take a whole
lot of additional rain to lead to flooding issues. 42


.MARINE...

Another extended period of wet weather is expected over the next week
or so, with rain chances generally on the rise through mid-week as
a series of upper-level disturbances move through the area. Winds will
generally remain out of the southeast through the period, occasionally
approaching caution levels through Tuesday and relaxing through the
remainder of the week. Over the weekend and into the start of next
week, look for an increase in winds and seas along with even better
rain chances. Elevated winds and seas will be possible in and around
the storms. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 70 85 70 82 69 / 50 50 50 60 30
Houston (IAH) 72 86 72 85 71 / 30 50 40 70 30
Galveston (GLS) 76 84 76 84 76 / 20 30 40 40 30

&&
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DoctorMu
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The storms near Del Rio could be heading toward the Houston area.
Cpv17
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DoctorMu wrote: Mon May 31, 2021 10:35 pm The storms near Del Rio could be heading toward the Houston area.
The HRR has them fizzling out before the reach Houston.
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GBinGrimes
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Getting blasted in Grimes County. Heavy, heavy downpour for at least the past hour when the 1st overhead thunderclap bounced me off the ceiling.
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Is the rain pretty much done for today?
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don
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p1xz68i.gif
A flash flood watch may be needed tomorrow.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
546 AM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021

.SHORT TERM [Today through Wednesday Night]...
Heavy rainfall overnight from Caldwell to College Station to
Crocket/Grapeland. Very heavy rainfall over Houston county with
rainfall estimates over 10" just east of Grapeland including 1 high
water rescue.

Band of storms continues to move through the area and should
continue to do so and have trended the forecast towards this with
the storms pushing down into the coastal counties by 10 am.
Rainfall rates this morning of 2-3"/hour are going to be possible
where storms train. The line should move and could split but will
also probably leave a boundary near the coast for the afternoon
hours in which storms could develop upon. In addition the pesky
cold front is going to move into the northern CWA this afternoon
and will probably become a focus for some garden variety storms
driven primarily by daytime heating and fortunately should
dissipate with the loss of heating but the coastal storms may not.


A potent shortwave is headed towards the area Wednesday and will
bring back 1.8-2.0" PW/a right rear quad up the upper jet and likely
a wave on the stationary front as a focus for more organized
rainfall. It may not arrive until the the late morning or more
likely afternoon/evening. After all of the rain recently and then
todays rains thinking that a Flash Flood watch will probably be in
the works for Wednesday as we head into the upcoming wet
period...see below.

Temperatures will be somewhat moderated by the expansive cloud cover
and rainfall the couple of days.

&&
.LONG TERM [Thursday through Tuesday]...

With the prevailing upper-level trough/low remaining to our
southwest, the period of unsettled weather will continue through the
end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. As the trough axis
ejects eastward and advances towards SE TX during the day on
Thursday, the synoptic pattern will become more favorable for the
development of locally heavy rainfall. At the surface, persistent
onshore flow will continue to make moisture plentifully available,
with global models indicating total PWs in the 1.75 to 2.0 in
range. The propagation of the upper low into Western TX by late
Thursday will place SE TX within the left rear quadrant of an
associated jet streak, which will enhance upper-level divergence.
As a series of shortwave troughs traverse the region beginning on
Thursday and persisting through the weekend, shower and
thunderstorm development will remain likely each day. Of the
latest deterministic solutions, the ECMWF remains the most
aggressive in its depiction of heavy rainfall on Saturday and
Sunday where jet dynamics/moisture availability look to be most
favorable. While the GFS is more bearish, its latest solution
nonetheless shows the entirety of SE TX receiving several inches
of rainfall.

WPC 7-Day QPF forecast amounts for SE TX remain in the 4-5" range.
Of course, these forecast values indicate areal average totals and
the occurrence of locally higher amounts is a distinct
possibility. As we draw closer to the weekend, the potential for
flooding will need to be monitored closely. Those planning any
travel/outdoor activities should continue to stay up to date with
the latest forecast information.

Generally overcast/broken cloud decks and precipitation should keep
daytime highs slightly below normal through the remainder of the
week and into the weekend, with forecast temperatures expected to
stay confined to the lower to mid 80s (normals for early June are 90
at IAH, 90 at CLL, and 87 at GLS). Overnight lows will remain near
normal, in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Early indications are that the wet period may continue into next
week with the approach of another upper trough axis to our northwest
and continued onshore flow at the surface supplying widespread
moisture.
unome
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https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1200 PM EDT Tue Jun 01 2021

Day 1
Valid 16Z Tue Jun 01 2021 - 12Z Wed Jun 02 2021

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN LOUISIANA, ACROSS ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI...

...Southern Missouri into Arkansas, northern to Central
Louisiana...
1600 UTC Update -- Minor adjustments were made to the Slight Risk
area, mainly to include a bit more real estate across eastern TX
and the Upper TX coast, based on the latest observational
(convective) trends and 12Z high-res CAMs, including the HREF
exceedance probabilities.

0800 UTC Discussion...

A MCV will continue to press eastward out of Oklahoma and across
northern Arkansas/southern Missouri Tuesday and toward the Lower
Ohio Valley by early Wednesday. Model consensus is for an axis of
heavy rains and isolated excessive rainfall amounts in the axis of
above average PW values stretching from southern Missouri, through
much of Arkansas into northern to central Louisiana to the east
and southeast of this MCV. The best instability will be to the
south of the MCV, across much of Arkansas into Louisiana. The
slight risk was extended farther to the south from the previous
issuance into northern and central Louisiana given this. This is
supported by the latest HREF neighborhood probabilities that are
high (50-90%+) for 2"+ amounts into northern to central Louisiana
and 30-60%+ for 3"+ amounts this period. On the hourly time
scale, the greater probabilities for 1 and 2"/hr amounts are from
central AR into northern to central Louisiana given the location
of the better instability. We were tempted to trim the northern
portion of the slight risk area, but given the model consensus for
heavy amounts farther to the north and current watches, we did
not. Models do have a heavy bias closer to the MCV track, with
the heavier totals often farther south into the better
instability. The marginal risk was also expanded farther eastward
into the Middle Tennessee Valley and central Gulf coast to cover
model spread with heavy rains across these areas.

...South Texas, northwestward into West Texas and eastern New
Mexico...
The previous marginal risk area over portions of central Texas was
expanded into West Texas and eastern New Mexico and pushed
southward into South Texas. The extension of the marginal risk
into South Texas was to cover current convection pressing
southeastward through the Lower Rio Grande Valley. This activity
may affect South Texas for the first few hours of the day 1 period
after 1200 UTC Tuesday. Across West Texas into eastern New
Mexico, additional scattered convection likely to fire this
afternoon from southeast Colorado into eastern New Mexico and West
Texas. With recent rains across these areas, FFG values have
lowered. While confidence is low with respect to details, there
is a model signal for locally heavy rains. HREF neighborhood
probabilities are greatest across West Texas, with 40-60%
probabilities of 1"+ totals this period, with lower probabilities
westward into eastern New Mexico.

Hurley/Oravec


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt


Image
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jasons2k
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A true legend has passed. I grew-up watching Roy.

He had AMS Seal #10.

https://www.fox13news.com/news/roy-leep ... asses-away
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DoctorMu
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The high was 10°F below normal. Nice northerly breeze. Partly cloudy. No rain.
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unome
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https://twitter.com/NWSCPC/status/1399806269599281153
Moderate confidence exists for tropical cyclones to form over both the Western Caribbean and East Pacific during June 9th through 15th.

Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook Discussion
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... /index.php
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DoctorMu
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unome wrote: Tue Jun 01, 2021 7:48 pm https://twitter.com/NWSCPC/status/1399806269599281153
Moderate confidence exists for tropical cyclones to form over both the Western Caribbean and East Pacific during June 9th through 15th.

Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook Discussion
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... /index.php
West Caribbean gyre
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jasons2k
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I'd be OK with the occasional sea breeze shower to keep things green, but this is ridiculous. It should be transitioning to the meteorological summer right now, but instead, we are stuck in this late-spring muck for awhile it looks like.

At least my pool outline is painted on the grass now. Progress. But it's still just in my imagination until they can get that hole dug!
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