June 2021:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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snowman65 wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 5:55 pm sounds like some people in here are disappointed when hurricanes dont hit us...I dont get it...do they actually enjoy destruction?
Many of us on here are major weather enthusiasts. We get very excited when bad weather comes our way. I know I do! I’m like a kid in a candy store. Crazy wild weather and sports are my two biggest passions in my life. Now I don’t exactly wish or want for anything to get destroyed or for anyone to get hurt but I’m always down for some crazy weather but there’s a line I have to draw when it comes to that. If it’s going to cause a lot of damage then no thanks!
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djmike
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As long as I have followed Tropical weather, 30+ years. I think this is the first time Ive ever seen NHC issue a cone to one place when the models are still pointing to another. Wow. I know I know. It’s because of the center reformation and models are STILL confused. And yes its going to La. I know why. BUT...I just have never seen models go one place and an official cone going different. Has this happened before?
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Katdaddy
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Cpv17 wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 6:20 pm
snowman65 wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 5:55 pm sounds like some people in here are disappointed when hurricanes dont hit us...I dont get it...do they actually enjoy destruction?
Many of us on here are major weather enthusiasts. We get very excited when bad weather comes our way. I know I do! I’m like a kid in a candy store. Crazy wild weather and sports are my two biggest passions in my life. Now I don’t exactly wish or want for anything to get destroyed or for anyone to get hurt but I’m always down for some crazy weather but there’s a line I have to draw when it comes to that. If it’s going to cause a lot of damage then no thanks!
Very well stated Cpv17 and could not state it any better. I feel the exact same way.
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Rip76
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Thinking back in my life of watching tropical systems, the one storm for me (growing up near Galveston), that I would say was the perfect scenario was Claudette in 2003. Right amount of wind and rain for a lover of tropical weather. And maybe Jerry in 1989. (I rode out Jerry in a lawn chair in my friend’s front yard having a couple of Long Island Teas. I wasn’t 21.
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DoctorMu
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djmike wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 6:50 pm As long as I have followed Tropical weather, 30+ years. I think this is the first time Ive ever seen NHC issue a cone to one place when the models are still pointing to another. Wow. I know I know. It’s because of the center reformation and models are STILL confused. And yes its going to La. I know why. BUT...I just have never seen models go one place and an official cone going different. Has this happened before?
As a rank amateur but another enthusiast (I might have been a meteorologist if my alma mater had the major) I'm within 50 mi of the NHC prediction. 8-)
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jasons2k
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DoctorMu wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 8:44 pm
djmike wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 6:50 pm As long as I have followed Tropical weather, 30+ years. I think this is the first time Ive ever seen NHC issue a cone to one place when the models are still pointing to another. Wow. I know I know. It’s because of the center reformation and models are STILL confused. And yes its going to La. I know why. BUT...I just have never seen models go one place and an official cone going different. Has this happened before?
As a rank amateur but another enthusiast (I might have been a meteorologist if my alma mater had the major) I'm within 50 mi of the NHC prediction. 8-)
Close enough. Your 500mb height chart is off by 24-hours at landfall, so we won't hold it against you :lol: :lol:
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DoctorMu
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TBF, it works at landfall, too. :lol:
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Cpv17
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The long range GFS has been hinting at another system entering the Gulf in about 2 weeks from now. Probably won’t happen but thought it was worth mentioning.
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djmike
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Ok, Im over 92L. Next...

So what’s moisture looking like for this upcoming Sunday through Tuesday? NWS LC is showing 70% coverage for Beaumont, so hopefully its it doest get chipped away day by day as we get closer which now seems to be the new norm in our area of TX.
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Stratton20
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CPV17 Anything beyond 7-10 days in the GFS just gets ignored , not even worth watching
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DoctorMu
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djmike wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 6:42 am Ok, Im over 92L. Next...

So what’s moisture looking like for this upcoming Sunday through Tuesday? NWS LC is showing 70% coverage for Beaumont, so hopefully its it doest get chipped away day by day as we get closer which now seems to be the new norm in our area of TX.

Gulf return flow and lost "cold" front meanders into the area next week.

FXUS64 KHGX 181110
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
610 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

.AVIATION [12Z TAF ISSUANCE]...

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. NE-E winds at
5-10 KTS today. Passing SH/TS associated with the outer rainbands
of Potential Tropical Storm Three is expected across the Gulf
waters later this morning as the system continues to move
northward and approaches the LA coastline. Some of this activity
is expected to spread inland today and tonight, and could
affect GLS, HOU, IAH, LBX, SGR from time to time. Winds will
become VRB tonight as the system moves inland. Local conditions
improve Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021/

DISCUSSION...

Focus for the next couple of days continues to be on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Three in the Gulf of Mexico, though not much has
changed in expectations, and in Southeast Texas, that focus will
almost certainly take the form of watching it cruise by well to
our east. We may manage to see the remnants of an outer band or
two, but upper level winds will keep most everything sheared off
to the eastern side of the storm.


In the wake of PTC Three, however, is something that is actually
likely to have more direct impacts on the area. As onshore flow
returns and moisture surges into the region, an unseasonably late
front looks to wander down from the north on Tuesday.
There`s
still a decent spread in the guidance on many of the details, but
there`s pretty good confidence that we`ll see the return of daily
rounds of showers and storms for the first half of next week.

SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday Night]...

The short term forecast will be focused on Potential Tropical Storm
Three, currently moving northward at around 9 MPH and approaching
the Central Gulf of Mexico. The system is progged to approach the
north-central Gulf Coast sometime late today or early Saturday.
Although the strong upper level winds are keeping storm organization
poor at this time, some strengthening is forecast later today as it
approaches the Louisiana coastline. Locally, the system`s outer
rainbands will bring an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity
later this morning across the Gulf waters
...gradually expanding
north into the southern, central, and eastern counties of the CWA
during the afternoon/evening
as it makes its way towards the
Louisiana coast. Associated rainfall activity is expected to
dissipate on Saturday as the system progresses further inland.
Despite us expecting some rainfall, it will remain hot and muggy
both Friday and Saturday with high temperatures in the low to mid
90s along with heat indices between 95 and 105. Those who plan to
spend time outdoors this weekend are urged to take extra precaution
and continue to practice heat safety.

LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...

Sunday and Monday puts us in the wake of PTC Three moving into the
Deep South, and the key weather activity here is more setting the
table for the rest of early next week. Winds should return to
being mainly onshore, and whatever dip in humidity we`ve seen with
this recent stretch of drier northeast winds will be wiped out.
Precipitable water values are progged to return to being around or
above two inches. Have kept temperatures that are roughly
persistence, though higher humidity will likely keep things just a
touch cooler - not enough to feel any different, as the higher
humidity will offset any slight cooling as far as apparent
temperatures go.

By Monday evening, look for a...checks notes...cold front to cross
the Red River and make its way south across Texas, likely reaching
our area Tuesday morning(ish).
All of the dynamics will be far,
far, far to our north, which probably limits the severe threat
pretty effectively. Still, with plenty of hot, humid boundary
layer air that I just talked about coming in, that could
definitely fuel storms that briefly pulse towards severe levels,
and provide efficient rainers for some locally heavy rain. All the
global deterministic are showing hints of potential for some
solid convective precip up and down the coast, though some are
clearly more aggressive with the QPF than others.

Looking at the NBM distribution, there`s about a 1-in-10 to
1-in-7 chance of exceeding an inch on Monday and/or Tuesday, so
there`s at least something there, there. As always, when looking
at events that will be driven by convective cells in global models
4+ days out, I`m not really expecting to get realistic QPF, but
I`m looking more for them to show a potentially favorable
environment. That probably is something that we`re looking at
here. Boundary moving in to be a focus for convection, onshore
flow pumping moisture and unstable air right into that oncoming
boundary, precipitable water getting up around the 90th
percentile...we`re not checking all the heavy rain boxes, but
probably enough boxes that we`ll want to be on the lookout for
isolated heavy rain, at least.


For the second half of the week, look for this front to dissipate,
and for subtropical ridging to build back across the region.
Assuming this verifies, we should settle right back into a
seasonable pattern: hot and humid, with a summertime wind and
shower pattern that will give us isolated to scattered showers and
storms each afternoon.

MARINE...

East to northeast winds expected today as Potential Tropical Cyclone
Three continues to track northward toward the Louisiana coastline.
Caution flags will likely go into effect later this morning for
winds between 15 and 20 KTS and seas building up to 6 feet. Although
the current forecast have winds and seas below Advisory criteria,
there is a chance for winds and seas to reach the Advisory threshold
later today. There will also be an increased risk for strong rip
currents along the Gulf facing beaches. Mariners are urged to
continue to closely monitor the forecast in case any changes are
made.

Onshore flow will return Saturday as the system progresses further
inland and remain southerly through the next several days. Wind
speeds of up to around 20 KTS are forecast to remain through early
next week, likely continuing Caution flags over the Gulf waters
through that time.

TROPICAL...

NHC continues advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three in
the Gulf. There is not a whole lot to add that hasn`t already been
said further up in this product as far as concerns for Southeast
Texas go. Namely, there really aren`t any, except for potential
marine and rip current concerns at the shore.

One thing of note, in case you run across any spaghetti plots that
are showing a number of "noodles" leading to Texas. There`s no
need to be concerned about this. Since we are dealing with a
proto-tropical depression/storm, the automated vortex trackers
that generate these spaghetti plots are going to have a difficult
time figuring out what is and what is not PTC Three. These tracks
that come to Texas are more highlighting that those models are
having a hard time finding anything at all to track, rather than a
storm headed our way.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 93 73 94 75 95 / 10 10 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 94 76 96 78 94 / 20 20 30 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 92 80 93 83 92 / 30 30 20 20 40
Scott747
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 9:53 am CPV17 Anything beyond 7-10 days in the GFS just gets ignored , not even worth watching
I hate to pick on you but this is just a bad statement. Go back in this very thread 10 days ago and look what was being discussed. ;)
Stratton20
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Scott747 No its not a bad statement, I said beyond 10 days is pretty unreliable, its a phantom storm, so nope you have your opinion and I have mine, unless the GFS shows something withun the 10 say range, its not very reliable, yes the GFS was correct on 1 long range storm. but tell me how many times have you seen a storm form WHEN THE GFS is showing something 16 days out? Very few and I mean very few times, so nope its not a bad statement, you are entitled to your opinion and I am to mine
Scott747
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Jun 04, 2021 8:18 pm Cp17 yeah I noticed this as well on the Euro, definitely going to watch it as it has ensemble support and the CMC model also is showing something in the BOC by days 8-9
Hmm.
Scott747
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Jun 05, 2021 2:20 am 00z Euro run definitely is trying to spin up some sort of tropical system in the bay of Campeche around 9 days from now, definitely seeing a strong signal from the models here
You don't say. :)
Scott747
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Jun 05, 2021 2:18 pm 12z Euro is definitely developing something in the central gulf around the 14th. Looks like we will have to watch the gulf next week
I agree!
Stratton20
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Scott747 notice how I said if a storm is within 10 days the. it bears watching and thats exactly what I said in these posts, unless that storm shows up inside of 10 days on the GFS and not 16 days out then its something to watch, im not trying to argue over this anymore, I didnt join this weather group to argue with people, ofc I will disagree with some people. but hey thats what discussions are meant for.
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We are more prone to issues later in the summer as the water heats up and sheer quiets down. Long ways to go yet.
Stratton20
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Cromagnum Gulf temps off the Texas Coast are in the 86-87 range, usually we dont see thise sea surface temps until August, Gulf has definitely warmed up very fast
Scott747
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 12:07 pm Scott747 notice how I said if a storm is within 10 days the. it bears watching and thats exactly what I said in these posts, unless that storm shows up inside of 10 days on the GFS and not 16 days out then its something to watch, im not trying to argue over this anymore, I didnt join this weather group to argue with people, ofc I will disagree with some people. but hey thats what discussions are meant for.
What began this little back and forth was your statement about anything beyond 7-10 days and what I responded too. There's a big difference between a 240 panel and even a 312ish panel and a 384 one. Just this storm alone shows that a 'signal' even in the very long range is at least worthy of some discussion and proved by your many posts.

And fwiw I even do tentative logistical chase planning support on a 384 panel after a few runs. ;)
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