June 2021:

[Stratton20]

At this point I dont think we can trust any of the models, wish a circulation would form so all of this dang flip flopping would stop

[Kingwood36]

Lol...haven't we been saying this for the longest

[Stormlover2020]

Lol yep that’s what we been saying, throw the models out right now

[Kingwood36]

Until there is a well defined coc...models are pointless...period and ppl who moan and groan over every single swing west or east gets annoying after a while

[Stratton20]

Oh im not groaning but it is really annoying with all the model flip flopping going on

[Kingwood36]

Oh im not groaning but it is really annoying with all the model flip flopping going on

Didn't say it was you

[Rip76]

It’s still early !!!! Models will shift

Just how many kats with the same i.p. address are there?

Gold, Jerry... Gold

[Stratton20]

NHC has increased development odds to 50% now

[don]

Still have a ways to go before more is none with the outcome of this system.As there is no defined center yet,and still a lack of consistency from run to run. 0z GFS had the storm hitting southeast Louisiana. While the 6z shifted to the west meandering the storm off the Texas coast before being picked up by a trough into southwest Louisiana. Expect more flip flopping over the next few days.But i think by mid week we should have a much better idea on how everything will play out.As there is more room for error than normal with this forecast because of the nature of gyre's and their lack of a defined center, instead consisting of multiple centers or vorticities. And whichever vorticity eventually becomes dominant can have big implications on track.

[Dls2010r]

Don what are the 2 pics?

[don]

Don what are the 2 pics?

Its just a comparison of the run to run swings in the GFS. (Last nights run, and this morning's model run)

[Cpv17]

Man, some of these ensemble members look pretty interesting. And just to think 24 hours ago at this time I was kinda writing this system off. This was a good reminder for me that you can’t do that especially when it’s still 5+ days out.

[Dls2010r]

So the top pic is last night and the bottom pic is today?

[Cpv17]

So the top pic is last night and the bottom pic is today?

Yes. And the GFS model (12z) will be starting around 11am. The GFS model runs 4 times a day.

[Dls2010r]

Thank You!

[oleander]

It’s still early !!!! Models will shift

Just how many kats with the same i.p. address are there?

Lmao! It doesn’t even need that truth to tell it’s the same person.. oh the humanity

My thoughts exactly! Here we go again.......

[don]

12Z intensity models. I would like to see the global models get onboard though, before i buy into these intensity models showing a strong tropical storm.

[Cpv17]

12Z intensity models. I would like to see the global models get onboard though, before i buy into these intensity models showing a strong tropical storm.

Well the GFS is onboard. Euro might pick back up on it at 12z.

[snowman65]

unless you've been living in a cave the past 5 years, you know good and well this will be a TS at some point, so just skip the 20%, now40%, oh, now 60%...just skip to the chase already lol

[don]

12Z intensity models. I would like to see the global models get onboard though, before i buy into these intensity models showing a strong tropical storm.

Well the GFS is onboard. Euro might pick back up on it at 12z.

I noticed that also, 6z GFS has a strong storm or category 1 into southwest Louisiana. Will be interesting to see if the trend continues.