June 2021:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
Posts: 4225
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Ar this point ai dont even know what to believe anymore lol
User avatar
sambucol
Posts: 1047
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 5:43 pm
Location: Mont Belvieu
Contact:

Me either.
User avatar
sambucol
Posts: 1047
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 5:43 pm
Location: Mont Belvieu
Contact:

I’ve read on a chat the storm is coming here, no it’s going to Louisiana, wait! It’s going to Alabama and Mississippi and even to Florida. The hysteria over a tropical blob is over the top. And all this time I thought we had to have a center of circulation to
determine where a storm most likely go. Not go in a tour of the Gulf Coast 😂. Oh and don’t anyone dare contradict anyone else’s track forecast because they will get mad if anyone does😳😂😂😂😂
Stratton20
Posts: 4225
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Lmao😂😂😂 for a landfall only 2.5 days out, this is ridiculous to see this models flip flopping this much
Kingwood36
Posts: 1592
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
Location: Freeport
Contact:

Not having a actual center will do that
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5360
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

The model watching will drive you crazy.

The forecast for this one is actually pretty straightforward. I don’t expect any significant changes in the thinking between now and landfall.

I ran my sprinklers today.
Stratton20
Posts: 4225
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Jasons2k Dont jinx it
User avatar
Texaspirate11
Posts: 1278
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
Contact:

Has anyone listened to the hgx update?
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
User avatar
Texaspirate11
Posts: 1278
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
Contact:

txbear wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 3:31 pm For what it's worth, USAF Hurricane Hunters TDY to Ellington. Suspect will see flights and data soon.

Edit: Looks like they're off on first recon...callsign TEAL95
Thought it was tomorrow???
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Stratton20
Posts: 4225
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Im confused, I thiught they were out flying today?
txbear
Posts: 234
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2018 12:54 pm
Contact:

Texaspirate11 wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 4:37 pm
txbear wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 3:31 pm For what it's worth, USAF Hurricane Hunters TDY to Ellington. Suspect will see flights and data soon.

Edit: Looks like they're off on first recon...callsign TEAL95
Thought it was tomorrow???
I honestly haven't observed the mission schedule, but did notice they went up and offshore. They've since returned closer to shore around KGLS.
Attachments
Capture.PNG
Stratton20
Posts: 4225
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Maybe it was just a test flight?
User avatar
Texaspirate11
Posts: 1278
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
Contact:

txbear wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 4:49 pm
Texaspirate11 wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 4:37 pm
txbear wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 3:31 pm For what it's worth, USAF Hurricane Hunters TDY to Ellington. Suspect will see flights and data soon.

Edit: Looks like they're off on first recon...callsign TEAL95
Thought it was tomorrow???
I honestly haven't observed the mission schedule, but did notice they went up and offshore. They've since returned closer to shore around KGLS.
Probably just found a mess
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
User avatar
don
Posts: 2575
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

18Z GFS, you can see the split of energy with the main center close to the upper Texas coast, with a separate piece of energy in Mississippi.The vorticty is also helping to rob moisture away from the main storm. Seems like whats giving the models a hard time is the split of energy that occurs between the main circulation and vorticity on the north side of the storm. In some runs the northern vorticity becomes the main circulation and pulls off to the northeast. While in other runs the models show the main circulation remaining separated from the vorticity to the north.And continuing further west until the trough picks up the storm.
Attachments
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_11.png
Last edited by don on Wed Jun 16, 2021 5:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
txbear
Posts: 234
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2018 12:54 pm
Contact:

Texaspirate11 wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 5:14 pm
txbear wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 4:49 pm
Texaspirate11 wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 4:37 pm

Thought it was tomorrow???
I honestly haven't observed the mission schedule, but did notice they went up and offshore. They've since returned closer to shore around KGLS.
Probably just found a mess
Had a quick minute and checked NHC. You were correct that USAF mission tasking is for tomorrow. Reposition, familiarization, etc today. As I type, TEAL95 has since departed our area for our neighbors along I-35.
Stratton20
Posts: 4225
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

OFC the GFS trended back to the west, surprise surprise lol
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

jasons2k wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 4:25 pm The model watching will drive you crazy.

The forecast for this one is actually pretty straightforward. I don’t expect any significant changes in the thinking between now and landfall.

I ran my sprinklers today.
Yeah, I don't seem anything tricky about this mess. A few showers along the SETX shore, but the bulk of activity in Louisiana and east.
Attachments
AL92_2021061618_GEFS_0-120h_large.png
Stratton20
Posts: 4225
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

As i said we will see , dont jinx it, until we have a defined center of circulation we still arent out of the woods
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5360
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

DoctorMu wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 6:56 pm
jasons2k wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 4:25 pm The model watching will drive you crazy.

The forecast for this one is actually pretty straightforward. I don’t expect any significant changes in the thinking between now and landfall.

I ran my sprinklers today.
Yeah, I don't seem anything tricky about this mess. A few showers along the SETX shore, but the bulk of activity in Louisiana and east.
Drive to Biloxi if you want to see any action from this one ;)
Dls2010r
Posts: 160
Joined: Sat Dec 01, 2018 6:21 am
Contact:

Please pass way way east. My ac broke yesterday. 12 days for parts. Ugh
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot] and 73 guests