djmike wrote: ↑Fri Jun 18, 2021 6:42 am Ok, Im over 92L. Next...
So what’s moisture looking like for this upcoming Sunday through Tuesday? NWS LC is showing 70% coverage for Beaumont, so hopefully its it doest get chipped away day by day as we get closer which now seems to be the new norm in our area of TX.
Gulf return flow and lost "cold" front meanders into the area next week.
FXUS64 KHGX 181110
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
610 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021
.AVIATION [12Z TAF ISSUANCE]...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. NE-E winds at
5-10 KTS today. Passing SH/TS associated with the outer rainbands
of Potential Tropical Storm Three is expected across the Gulf
waters later this morning as the system continues to move
northward and approaches the LA coastline. Some of this activity
is expected to spread inland today and tonight, and could
affect GLS, HOU, IAH, LBX, SGR from time to time. Winds will
become VRB tonight as the system moves inland. Local conditions
improve Saturday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021/
DISCUSSION...
Focus for the next couple of days continues to be on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Three in the Gulf of Mexico, though not much has
changed in expectations, and in Southeast Texas, that focus will
almost certainly take the form of watching it cruise by well to
our east. We may manage to see the remnants of an outer band or
two, but upper level winds will keep most everything sheared off
to the eastern side of the storm.
In the wake of PTC Three, however, is something that is actually
likely to have more direct impacts on the area. As onshore flow
returns and moisture surges into the region, an unseasonably late
front looks to wander down from the north on Tuesday. There`s
still a decent spread in the guidance on many of the details, but
there`s pretty good confidence that we`ll see the return of daily
rounds of showers and storms for the first half of next week.
SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday Night]...
The short term forecast will be focused on Potential Tropical Storm
Three, currently moving northward at around 9 MPH and approaching
the Central Gulf of Mexico. The system is progged to approach the
north-central Gulf Coast sometime late today or early Saturday.
Although the strong upper level winds are keeping storm organization
poor at this time, some strengthening is forecast later today as it
approaches the Louisiana coastline. Locally, the system`s outer
rainbands will bring an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity
later this morning across the Gulf waters...gradually expanding
north into the southern, central, and eastern counties of the CWA
during the afternoon/evening as it makes its way towards the
Louisiana coast. Associated rainfall activity is expected to
dissipate on Saturday as the system progresses further inland.
Despite us expecting some rainfall, it will remain hot and muggy
both Friday and Saturday with high temperatures in the low to mid
90s along with heat indices between 95 and 105. Those who plan to
spend time outdoors this weekend are urged to take extra precaution
and continue to practice heat safety.
LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...
Sunday and Monday puts us in the wake of PTC Three moving into the
Deep South, and the key weather activity here is more setting the
table for the rest of early next week. Winds should return to
being mainly onshore, and whatever dip in humidity we`ve seen with
this recent stretch of drier northeast winds will be wiped out.
Precipitable water values are progged to return to being around or
above two inches. Have kept temperatures that are roughly
persistence, though higher humidity will likely keep things just a
touch cooler - not enough to feel any different, as the higher
humidity will offset any slight cooling as far as apparent
temperatures go.
By Monday evening, look for a...checks notes...cold front to cross
the Red River and make its way south across Texas, likely reaching
our area Tuesday morning(ish). All of the dynamics will be far,
far, far to our north, which probably limits the severe threat
pretty effectively. Still, with plenty of hot, humid boundary
layer air that I just talked about coming in, that could
definitely fuel storms that briefly pulse towards severe levels,
and provide efficient rainers for some locally heavy rain. All the
global deterministic are showing hints of potential for some
solid convective precip up and down the coast, though some are
clearly more aggressive with the QPF than others.
Looking at the NBM distribution, there`s about a 1-in-10 to
1-in-7 chance of exceeding an inch on Monday and/or Tuesday, so
there`s at least something there, there. As always, when looking
at events that will be driven by convective cells in global models
4+ days out, I`m not really expecting to get realistic QPF, but
I`m looking more for them to show a potentially favorable
environment. That probably is something that we`re looking at
here. Boundary moving in to be a focus for convection, onshore
flow pumping moisture and unstable air right into that oncoming
boundary, precipitable water getting up around the 90th
percentile...we`re not checking all the heavy rain boxes, but
probably enough boxes that we`ll want to be on the lookout for
isolated heavy rain, at least.
For the second half of the week, look for this front to dissipate,
and for subtropical ridging to build back across the region.
Assuming this verifies, we should settle right back into a
seasonable pattern: hot and humid, with a summertime wind and
shower pattern that will give us isolated to scattered showers and
storms each afternoon.
MARINE...
East to northeast winds expected today as Potential Tropical Cyclone
Three continues to track northward toward the Louisiana coastline.
Caution flags will likely go into effect later this morning for
winds between 15 and 20 KTS and seas building up to 6 feet. Although
the current forecast have winds and seas below Advisory criteria,
there is a chance for winds and seas to reach the Advisory threshold
later today. There will also be an increased risk for strong rip
currents along the Gulf facing beaches. Mariners are urged to
continue to closely monitor the forecast in case any changes are
made.
Onshore flow will return Saturday as the system progresses further
inland and remain southerly through the next several days. Wind
speeds of up to around 20 KTS are forecast to remain through early
next week, likely continuing Caution flags over the Gulf waters
through that time.
TROPICAL...
NHC continues advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three in
the Gulf. There is not a whole lot to add that hasn`t already been
said further up in this product as far as concerns for Southeast
Texas go. Namely, there really aren`t any, except for potential
marine and rip current concerns at the shore.
One thing of note, in case you run across any spaghetti plots that
are showing a number of "noodles" leading to Texas. There`s no
need to be concerned about this. Since we are dealing with a
proto-tropical depression/storm, the automated vortex trackers
that generate these spaghetti plots are going to have a difficult
time figuring out what is and what is not PTC Three. These tracks
that come to Texas are more highlighting that those models are
having a hard time finding anything at all to track, rather than a
storm headed our way.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 93 73 94 75 95 / 10 10 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 94 76 96 78 94 / 20 20 30 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 92 80 93 83 92 / 30 30 20 20 40