June 2021:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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srainhoutx
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This thing likely will not be named until it exits the Carolina Coast on Monday.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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DoctorMu
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Tropical Mess #3 is nearing landfall...whatever that means - near Morgan City, LA. Spot on per NHC guidance.
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DoctorMu
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There is a light outer band that "might" make it to Orange and Beaumont.
Cpv17
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DoctorMu wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 7:12 pm There is a light outer band that "might" make it to Orange and Beaumont.
Yawn. Srain might actually get something outta it though.
unome
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from latest Claudette discussion https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Claudette
...The biggest change to the forecast is that almost all of the
reliable global models, save the GFS, are showing the system
regenerating near or offshore of the North Carolina coast in 60 to
72 hours. Thus the forecast has been extended from the last one
and now shows the system as a tropical cyclone over the western
Atlantic Ocean.
Stratton20
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Thank goodness it appears this system will be moving rapidly to the North East so all the rains should be exiting florida with the next 2 days😃😃😃looks Like my vacation outlook is getting more optimistic
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don
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May be time to start watching the tropics again as the GFS has been showing a sharp wave moving from the Caribbean into the Gulf around the end of the month or beginning of July.And has been hinting at possible TC genesis again.The GFS has its ups and downs like every model, but it has gotten pretty darn good at sniffing out TC genesis in the long range(Tropical storm Claudette ongoing right now for example).Still a long ways out but something to keep an eye on.
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Cpv17
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don wrote: Sat Jun 19, 2021 12:01 pm May be time to start watching the tropics again as the GFS has been showing a sharp wave moving from the Caribbean into the Gulf around the end of the month or beginning of July.And has been hinting at possible TC genesis again.The GFS has its ups and downs like every model, but it has gotten pretty darn good at sniffing out TC genesis in the long range(Tropical storm Claudette ongoing right now for example).Still a long ways out but something to keep an eye on.
There’s some support from the GEFS as well.
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DoctorMu
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At least Claudette brought lower dewpoints into the area on the back side.
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DoctorMu
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A trough and front following Gulf moisture return will bring some excitement and a chance of rain Monday and into Tuesday.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
327 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday Night]...

Radar is clear thus far this afternoon, though the inland
propagation of the seabreeze may trigger a few isolated airmass
thunderstorms through the early evening hours. That being said, any
rainfall of significance is unlikely as a lack of vertical shear
along with dry air aloft will stifle convective activity. Meanwhile,
with the departure of Tropical Storm Claudette well to our east,
winds will continue to veer to the south/southeast overnight (though
wind speeds should remain lighter and variable through tomorrow
morning). This should allow for a recovery of moisture over the next
few days and a return to surface dew points in the mid to upper 70s.
Expect more of the same for overnight lows this evening, with values
remaining in the mid/upper 70s inland and around 80 along the coast.
Galveston and Houston Hobby low temperatures may approach record
high minimum values (82 and 80, respectively).

Rainfall chances will be on the increase tomorrow as a plume of
abundant moisture arrives in SE TX.
Global models continue to
indicate PW values rising to anomalous levels across the area--
around 2 to 2.3 inches by late Sunday.
This increase in moisture, as
well as ample surface instability and the passage of a weak midlevel
disturbance, should be sufficient to trigger showers and storms
during the day and evening tomorrow. The most widespread activity
should initially be confined to the coast before spreading inland.
Another day of highs in the mid 90s is also on the cards, with heat
indicies expected to be near (but likely below) the advisory
threshold of 108. Continue to practice heat safety if planning any
outdoor activities for Father`s Day. Showers/storms will continue
through Sunday night with lows once again remaining in the upper 70s
to lower 80s.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...[Monday through Saturday]

On Monday morning, A weak short wave trough will extend from
Louisiana across coastal Texas.
Lift associated with the trough
axis coupled with PW values around 2.00 inches should allow for
some diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. An upper level
disturbance embedded in the NW flow aloft coupled with a weak
surface front will produce additional showers and storms Monday
night into Tuesday.
Upper level winds show a split over SE TX will
should aid in lift and the GFS (moreso than the EC) shows some jet
dynamics in play as SE TX will lie in a weak jet couplet. The weak
cold front will likely stall before reaching the coast and models
have the front in various location but there is a growing
consensus that the front will stall across the central CWA or
roughly along a Columbus to Tomball to Cleveland line. A weak
boundary, high moisture levels and some jet dynamics could yield
pockets of locally heavy rain Monday night into Tuesday and that
is something that will need to be watched as we approach that time
period.


Upper level ridging will try to reassert itself for the middle and
latter half of next week but the ridge is centered west and
heights only build to around 592 DM so suppression from the ridge
looks modestly strong but probably not enough to suppress isolated
activity along the seabreeze each aftn with a touch of heating.
Will maintain lowish PoPs, again mainly diurnally driven for the
second half of next week.

As for temps, slightly cooler than climo to start the week due to
clouds and precip but the second half of the week looks warm with
MaxT values climbing back up into the mid and upper 90`s. MinT
values should be a bit cooler with some rain cooled air Mon/Tues
but values will warm to above climo by the end of the week as the
upper level ridge begins to expand eastward. 43

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and lower pressures
over the central plains will maintain a light onshore flow
tonight. Long period swells propagating into the coastal waters
will promt a SCEC for the offshore waters tongiht. The flow will
strengthen Sunday and especially Sunday night into Monday as the
pressure gradient tightens. An SCA will be required by late Sunday
as winds and seas build. Although the rip current risk was lower
today, feel the increasing onshore flow on Sunday will bring the
rip current risk back up by Sunday afternoon. The pressure
gradient will relax on Monday as a weak front moves into SE TX. A
more typical summer pattern will develop over the second half of
next week as onshore winds increase at night over the Gulf and
decrease during the day. Over the bays, winds will increase during
the day and decrease at night.

Water levels will stay below 3.0 feet through Sunday but a
developing strong onshore flow will bring water levels to between
3.0 and 3.5 feet Monday and Tuesday. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 94 78 94 74 / 0 10 10 40 50
Houston (IAH) 77 94 79 94 76 / 20 50 30 50 60
Galveston (GLS) 83 91 83 91 80 / 40 60 40 40 60
Cpv17
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Man, the western Gulf waters have warmed significantly. 29-30°C all over the place.
Stratton20
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Just arrived to Panama Beach , Florida after what was supposed to be a 10 hour drive ended up becoming 13 hours thanks to some awful traffic and some heavy rain bands from the Tropical storm that moved inland😂😂
Scott747
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Well the 12z gfs went a little bonkers.
Cpv17
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Scott747 wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 12:08 pm Well the 12z gfs went a little bonkers.
Haha yeah I’d say so.
Stratton20
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CPV17 haha yeah just saw that, maybe something to watch in the gulf around days 10-11,but yeah I definitely dont expect a major hurricane, conditions still are not overly conducive for that to occur in the gulf yet
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 12:29 pm CPV17 haha yeah just saw that, maybe something to watch in the gulf around days 10-11,but yeah I definitely dont expect a major hurricane, conditions still are not overly conducive for that to occur in the gulf yet
I’m not sure if there’s ever been a major in the Gulf that early in the season.
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don
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I know there's been at least one major in the gulf in June. Which was Hurricane Audrey in 1957.
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Two nice looking rounds of storms today in my area and both times the cell splits in half and I barely get anything. Hoping Monday delivers something.
cperk
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Scott747 wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 12:08 pm Well the 12z gfs went a little bonkers.
Yeah just a little. :)
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