June 2021: Watching The Bay of Campeche

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srainhoutx
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Re: June 2021

Post by srainhoutx » Fri Jun 11, 2021 7:01 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure is expected to form early next week over
the Bay of Campeche and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Subsequent
slow development of this system is possible as it drifts
northwestward to northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven
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Re: June 2021

Post by Cpv17 » Fri Jun 11, 2021 7:10 am

The EPS seems to have came in a bit more bullish overnight.

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don
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Re: June 2021

Post by don » Fri Jun 11, 2021 7:12 am

Yep they sure have,a decent increase in ensemble support in the 0z runs.
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Re: June 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Fri Jun 11, 2021 7:34 am

The lemonade stand opens next week.

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Re: June 2021

Post by oleander » Fri Jun 11, 2021 7:46 am

jasons2k wrote:
Thu Jun 10, 2021 1:40 pm
As others have posted, it’s too early to focus on the details of any particular model run. A lot will change over the next week that just can’t be resolved by the models this far out.

I’d advise folks to pay attention to our Senior Members and Pro-Mets for reliable information 😉
Yes! I can't imagine the combined years of experience our members have. What an incredible resource!

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Re: June 2021

Post by don » Fri Jun 11, 2021 7:48 am

This is what Wxman57 is thinking about the system from Storm2k.
I changed the thread title. I'm becoming confident in what will happen next week. Squalls will increase in the BoC by next Monday/Tuesday. All models are now in very good agreement on the timing of development and the track. Still some disagreement on the intensity, but shear will be a factor. A low center will develop Tue-Wed and track northward, generally toward the upper TX coast or the SW LA coast. The NHC will classify this low as a depression Thursday morning and likely a TS prior to its moving ashore Fri/Sat, once recon finds a small area of TS winds. It will be a sheared, weak TS with heavy rainfall being the primary threat to TX/LA.

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Re: June 2021

Post by Cpv17 » Fri Jun 11, 2021 8:02 am

don wrote:
Fri Jun 11, 2021 7:48 am
This is what Wxman57 is thinking about the system from Storm2k.
I changed the thread title. I'm becoming confident in what will happen next week. Squalls will increase in the BoC by next Monday/Tuesday. All models are now in very good agreement on the timing of development and the track. Still some disagreement on the intensity, but shear will be a factor. A low center will develop Tue-Wed and track northward, generally toward the upper TX coast or the SW LA coast. The NHC will classify this low as a depression Thursday morning and likely a TS prior to its moving ashore Fri/Sat, once recon finds a small area of TS winds. It will be a sheared, weak TS with heavy rainfall being the primary threat to TX/LA.
If it’s sheared and goes towards the upper TX coast we probably won’t get much of anything around here and could help support drier and hotter conditions for much of Texas.

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Re: June 2021: Watching The Bay of Campeche

Post by don » Fri Jun 11, 2021 8:09 am

Not necessarily, as it would depend on just how sheared it is, as a sheared systems doesn't necessarily mean there wont be heavy convection near the center. It's the areas to the west of the center that would be high and dry though.And of course the center could be devoid of convection also, but again it would depend on the amount of shear in place.

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Re: June 2021: Watching The Bay of Campeche

Post by Cpv17 » Fri Jun 11, 2021 8:19 am

don wrote:
Fri Jun 11, 2021 8:09 am
Not necessarily, as it would depend on just how sheared it is, as a sheared systems doesn't necessarily mean there wont be heavy convection near the center. It's the areas to the west of the center that would be high and dry though.And of course the center could be devoid of convection also, but again it would depend on the amount of shear in place.
Yeah I’ve seen some systems in June have hardly any convection near the center. Like you said it depends how much shear there is. Sometimes in June shear can be pretty bad in the Gulf.

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Re: June 2021: Watching The Bay of Campeche

Post by Kingwood36 » Fri Jun 11, 2021 8:56 am

Wxmn57 is good..but alot of times he is wrong also...just saying..

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