June 2021: Watching The Bay of Campeche

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
Posts: 323
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: Katy, Texas
Contact:

Re: June 2021: Watching The Bay of Campeche

Post by Stratton20 » Fri Jun 11, 2021 9:06 am

Ita pretty much impossible to say if this system will be sheared or not, we have seen quite a few times with systems overcoming shear and obviously the opposite as well.

AtascocitaWX
Posts: 65
Joined: Mon Jun 19, 2017 2:29 pm
Location: Atascocita,Tx
Contact:

Re: June 2021: Watching The Bay of Campeche

Post by AtascocitaWX » Fri Jun 11, 2021 9:07 am

Storms in Bay of Campeche seems to always have a Crazy nature to them

User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 3620
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Re: June 2021: Watching The Bay of Campeche

Post by jasons2k » Fri Jun 11, 2021 9:36 am

It’s still June so I’d bet on shear being a factor. There is a trough on the models that induce shear and send most of it towards the east. Pretty textbook for a June system.

Stratton20
Posts: 323
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: Katy, Texas
Contact:

Re: June 2021: Watching The Bay of Campeche

Post by Stratton20 » Fri Jun 11, 2021 9:44 am

Hope thats not the case, hope the shear isnt bad, I dont want to end up getting dry slotted, I want more rain haha, not saying I want this to become a powerful system as I dont, but I definitely would love another 3-5 inches in my backyard

Cpv17
Posts: 2038
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Re: June 2021: Watching The Bay of Campeche

Post by Cpv17 » Fri Jun 11, 2021 9:57 am

Stratton20 wrote:
Fri Jun 11, 2021 9:44 am
Hope thats not the case, hope the shear isnt bad, I dont want to end up getting dry slotted, I want more rain haha, not saying I want this to become a powerful system as I dont, but I definitely would love another 3-5 inches in my backyard
If you want some rain the best case scenario would be for this to come in around the middle to south TX coast with a track towards San Antonio.

Stratton20
Posts: 323
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: Katy, Texas
Contact:

Re: June 2021: Watching The Bay of Campeche

Post by Stratton20 » Fri Jun 11, 2021 9:59 am

CPv17 thats what I kinda hope will happen( not wanting anyone to get hit hard though) my backyard dries up extremely fast, and it would definitely be nice to gets some more rain, however since this is tropical moisture Im hoping that nothing excessive occurs but no promise on that, also get ready yall, all the fear mongering people are probably going crazy seeing that yellow hased area in the BOC😂🙂

User avatar
don
Posts: 1132
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

Re: June 2021: Watching The Bay of Campeche

Post by don » Fri Jun 11, 2021 10:41 am

The 12z GFS sends the storm to the Alabama/Florida panhandle region.Because it consolidates the system further east over the Yucatan instead of over the BOC. Like i mentioned yesterday where the system forms will have big implications on where a landfall may occur.

Stratton20
Posts: 323
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: Katy, Texas
Contact:

Re: June 2021: Watching The Bay of Campeche

Post by Stratton20 » Fri Jun 11, 2021 10:48 am

Don I think the GFS is an outlier at the moment as its been really inconsistent, not buying its mode runs at all

Cpv17
Posts: 2038
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Re: June 2021: Watching The Bay of Campeche

Post by Cpv17 » Fri Jun 11, 2021 10:49 am

The GFS is all over the place.

Stratton20
Posts: 323
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: Katy, Texas
Contact:

Re: June 2021: Watching The Bay of Campeche

Post by Stratton20 » Fri Jun 11, 2021 10:51 am

Cpv17 thats exactly why im not buying into the GFS, its been too inconsistent in its pst model runs, EURO has been very consistent as well as the CMC,

Post Reply