General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Ita pretty much impossible to say if this system will be sheared or not, we have seen quite a few times with systems overcoming shear and obviously the opposite as well.
It’s still June so I’d bet on shear being a factor. There is a trough on the models that induce shear and send most of it towards the east. Pretty textbook for a June system.
Hope thats not the case, hope the shear isnt bad, I dont want to end up getting dry slotted, I want more rain haha, not saying I want this to become a powerful system as I dont, but I definitely would love another 3-5 inches in my backyard
If you want some rain the best case scenario would be for this to come in around the middle to south TX coast with a track towards San Antonio.
CPv17 thats what I kinda hope will happen( not wanting anyone to get hit hard though) my backyard dries up extremely fast, and it would definitely be nice to gets some more rain, however since this is tropical moisture Im hoping that nothing excessive occurs but no promise on that, also get ready yall, all the fear mongering people are probably going crazy seeing that yellow hased area in the BOC
The 12z GFS sends the storm to the Alabama/Florida panhandle region.Because it consolidates the system further east over the Yucatan instead of over the BOC. Like i mentioned yesterday where the system forms will have big implications on where a landfall may occur.
Cpv17 thats exactly why im not buying into the GFS, its been too inconsistent in its pst model runs, EURO has been very consistent as well as the CMC,