June 2021:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stormlover2020
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I wouldn’t buy it yet!!! Last year models struggled 3 days out, now last year they didn’t have data from airlines so maybe this year they will be better 3-4 days out
Last edited by Stormlover2020 on Sat Jun 12, 2021 6:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Texaspirate11
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Stormlover2020 wrote: Sat Jun 12, 2021 6:31 pm I wouldn’t buy it yet!!! Last year models struggled 3 days out, now last year the didn’t have data from airlines so maybe this year they will be better 3-4 days out
You are right cant jump with every model gotta watch and wait
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Kingwood36
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This isn't gospel...it hasn't even made it to the gulf yet...wait and watch
Stratton20
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Kingwood36 no the disturbance is in the gulf now, but the GFS is starting to come in line with what the Euro is showing, thats why this gets our attention
Stormlover2020
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Until we have a center models will flip
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srainhoutx
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of cloudiness and showers over the Bay of Campeche and the
adjacent land areas is associated with a trough of low pressure.
Slow development is possible over the next several days while this
system moves slowly and erratically, and a tropical depression could
form in this area by the middle of next week. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Central
America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Please
consult products from your local meteorological service for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Pasch
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Kingwood36
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Stormlover2020 wrote: Sat Jun 12, 2021 6:47 pm Until we have a center models will flip
Bingo
Stratton20
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Still at 40% pretty surprised the NHC hasnt upped development chances even more
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DoctorMu
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srainhoutx wrote: Sat Jun 12, 2021 6:56 pm Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of cloudiness and showers over the Bay of Campeche and the
adjacent land areas is associated with a trough of low pressure.
Slow development is possible over the next several days while this
system moves slowly and erratically, and a tropical depression could
form in this area by the middle of next week. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Central
America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Please
consult products from your local meteorological service for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Pasch

Just about to post this. No initiation yet, so we know nothing really.

Models:
Euro - weak TS/TD ; landfall Galveston
GFS - TD crawls ashore in LA
CMC - TD aiming at LaTx.
Stormlover2020
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Gfs is stronger then a depression
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