June 2021:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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Rip76 wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 9:39 pm Man, not even an outflow boundary out here tonight for a cool-down.
It didn't really get hot with the DP in the 60s until about 6 pm. Sun continued to beat down and the DP rose.
MH5
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Katdaddy wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 7:38 pm A few seabreeze thunderstorms this evening that will make a beautiful sunset for some and a wet sunset for others.
Caught the beautiful side of it here!
90EF3E16-CA00-4642-A6E2-577FA69006BD.jpeg
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Rip76
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That’s killer.
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djmike
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Latest 80-90% development hatched area from NHC looks to be angled more towards Houston to Vermilion Bay area. Have not hd a chance to look at latest models yet. Just making a quick visual notice.
Mike
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don
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I expect a landfall around Vermilion Bay in south central Louisiana.Due to a center reformation that the models show taking place north of the Yucatan.The tropical models shows what could happen if the current area of low pressure staid dominate, instead of a center reformation to the north.But that is not expected to happen, as a new center should reform near the heavier convection.
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djmike
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One thing for sure is this storm will need to start hauling butt if its to start nearing landfall Fri-Sat timeframe. Has it even begun its northward trek?
Mike
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jasons2k
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Update from Jeff Lindner:
There has been little change to the overall structure of 92L since yesterday morning. There continues to be a broad area of surface low pressure at the southern end of a trough axis that extends NE across the Gulf of Mexico toward the central Gulf coast. An upper level trough and large mass of dry air is located over the extreme western Gulf of Mexico resulting in W/SW shear across the broad surface pressure minimum and trough axis. 92L remains very disorganized and convection scattered in clusters mainly across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan.

Global models continue to suggest that a more consolidated surface low pressure system will form with 92L and move northward in the general direction of Louisiana over the next 24-48 hours. Where any more defined surface low may form is still in question, but the general model consensus continues to keep the majority of the impacts east of SE TX and aimed toward the central and eastern US Gulf coast.

Local Impacts:
Minimal impacts are expected as the tropical system passes generally SE and E of our area. Winds will begin to back to the E and NE later today into Friday and increase into the 20-25kt range over the coastal waters mainly east of Galveston. Seas will build into the 4-6 ft range Friday into Saturday. The combination of NE surface winds and building offshore swells will yield increasing tides along the upper TX coast, but guidance is keeping values in the 3-4 ft range for total water level or about 1.0-1.5 feet above normal. This is generally below levels that cause any significant issues. Would not be surprised to see a bit of run-up at times of high tide near the vulnerable east end of Bolivar and some minor flooding. Rain chances will increase from the SE starting Friday afternoon and linger into Saturday, but there will likely be a sharp gradient with any rainfall with 92L over SE TX with mainly areas ESE of Galveston Bay having the better chances of squalls moving onshore as drier air wraps into the west side of the system.

Moisture values actually increase more late in the weekend into early next week as 92L pulls NE away from the area and a cool front approaches from the north. We may actually see better chances of active weather early next week than with 92L locally.
Cromagnum
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Been said a few times before, but NEXT
Stratton20
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12z Spaghetti plot models on tropical tidbits are still aimed at Texas, I will continue to say this very Clearly, do not expect anything from this system, whether thats a center reformation and its track, do not expect or assume anything. Mother Nature doesnt always follow what the computer models say, yall cant just base this track off just the global models, they have been wrong before, the hurricane center likes to follow the TVCN model as its usually one they rely on to make forecasted tracks with (usually) another good model the UKMET is also aimed at Texas. It aint over till its over, despite what jeff said and hes a great meteorologist by the way, absolutely cannot discount these spaghetti plots though
Last edited by Stratton20 on Thu Jun 17, 2021 10:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
Kingwood36
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I agree next...maybe a passing shower. Bulk of the rain will be long gone away from here
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djmike
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When do you think NHC will apply the cone?
Mike
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jasons2k
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The pro-mets aren’t being fooled by the ‘spaghetti plots’ ;)

They have this system pegged. Have for some time. After about Saturday, this one was easy. NEXT.
Stratton20
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Keep this **** away from Florida, I dont need this crap ruining my vacation that we spend months planning for😡,this is actually making me mad and weather never makes me mad!
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jasons2k
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 10:52 am Keep this **** away from Florida, I dont need this crap ruining my vacation that we spend months planning for😡
There’s not anything that anybody can do about the weather.

It rains in Orlando every day from Mid June-Late September. Always has. If you don’t want rain to interfere with your vacation, go in November. The weather is much nicer for enjoying the parks.
Stratton20
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Ah forget ill, even if there is rain and thunder and heavy surf , that aint stopping me from boogie boarding,but thanks for the heads up, im going to Destin and Panama City though not Orlando
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don
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I'm already looking at the next rainmaker...As the bigger weather story for us may be the cool front models are showing next week.That looks to have enough lift to produce widespread showers/thunderstorms, we'll see.
Pas_Bon
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 10:52 am Keep this **** away from Florida, I dont need this crap ruining my vacation that we spend months planning for😡,this is actually making me mad and weather never makes me mad!
Mother Nature doesn't give a flip about anyone's vacation plans.
TexasBreeze
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Not the next couple days, but look towards Sunday through Tuesday morning for rains here with the approaching moisture and front according to the gfs model. A day later on the Ecmwf. 92l should make the next couple days hotter and drier with it's outer subsident and dry air, but can't rule out a seabreeze storm at peak heating.
Stratton20
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Pas_Bon I said I know, thats why I said I dont care if I have to deal with heavy surf and rain, im still going out boogie boarding
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