Ouch
June 2021:
Some model support for the newly designated area behind 95l. GFS is bullish into the Gulf, while the Euro picks up on it in the Caribbean but not near as enthused.
Yeah the EPS is on it too but it’s a much weaker signal than the GEFS. The GEFS says watch out Texas but that’s 9-10 days out so it’s just something to watch for now.
Slow start to the widespread rains compared to yesterday. Figured it’d be poppin by now.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Starting to pop now.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4483
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 291059
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
559 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021
.AVIATION...
Mix of IFR/MVFR cigs north of I-10 should lift toward mid morning.
Shra/tstm coverage should increase along/south of I-10 in the next
several hours, then look for increased coverage across the
remainder of the area late this morning and afternoon. A wide
variety of cigs are anticipated during the day considering precip
coverage, though mainly VFR away from the strongest cells (which
could produce heavy rain, gusty winds & reduced vis). Precip
should taper off fairly quickly this evening. MVFR stratus will
probably redevelop from CXO northward after 8z. 47
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021/
SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Night]...
Water vapor imagery shows upper low situated over nw Mexico early
this morning. GOES 16 Total Precip Water product estimating
2.1-2.4" values across SE Tx and surface obs show a well defined
area of speed convergence along a weak trof at the coast. Already
seeing some sct development along and to the south of this zone,
and anticipate an uptick in areal coverage between now and mid
morning across the southern parts of the CWA...expanding further
inland & areawide as temps warm a bit into late morning and this
afternoon. Potential for localized heavy rain in a short time
period remains a possibility, but it should be just that -
localized (with southern parts of the CWA invof srn convergent
zone more favored region). Precip should taper off fairly quickly
this evening.
Moisture availability trends town a touch tonight and Wed (PW`s down
to 1.9-2.1") and weak mid level ridging builds in from the ne.
Combination of both should allow for less precip coverage than we
had Mon & today esp nrn 1/3 of the area. However, still anticipate
most areas south of Brenham-Livingston line to see fairly good
chances of some diurnally driven precip. 47
LONG TERM [Thursday Morning Through Monday Night]...
With a gentle mid-level high pressure in place on Thursday and
ample low-level moisture, a more summer-like pattern of diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms will return. This mid-level high
pressure will begin to retreat back to the west on Friday as a
trough over the Great Lakes deepens and pushes further south. This
trough will drag a cold front into TX this weekend which is
expected to stall across our CWA and dissipate along our coast
early next week. Through the holiday weekend and into early next
week, showers and thunderstorms will be focused along this frontal
boundary. Rain chances will range from 50-80% and peak in the
late afternoon each day.
Rain and cloud cover will help keep daytime high temperatures
near 90 through the long term, but cloud cover overnight and
onshore flow will keep overnight lows in a very muggy mid-70s.
KBL
MARINE...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected once again
today. Winds outside of this convection are southeast at 15 to 20
knots, and therefore a Small Craft Exercise Caution will be in
place until at least tonight. However, winds and seas will be
higher in and around these showers and storms today. Onshore flow
will persist through the weekend as a cold front approaches the
coast on Saturday. Therefore, rain chances are expected each day
through the weekend with activity peaking in the late afternoon
and evening.
Strong rip currents are expected again today along our beaches due
to moderate onshore flow. Beachgoers should swim near a lifeguard
and monitor weather conditions closely while at the beach.
TROPICAL...
Tropical Depression Danny continues to push inland on the Georgia
coast and will continue to push west and dissipate on land. The
hurricane center is also monitoring an area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms in the East Atlantic. As it moves west-
northwest at 15 to 20 mph, it has a 40% chance of development in
the next 5 days. Global deterministic and ensemble models still
vary widely on its path after 5 days. Therefore, our office is
monitoring it, but does not have high confidence on impacts for
southeast TX this far out. Once again, this is a reminder that we
are in the middle of hurricane season and best practice is to
always stay up to date with the latest forecasts from our office
and the hurricane center. Make sure you have a plan in place and
plenty of hurricane supplies.
KBL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 73 89 75 92 / 70 30 40 20 20
Houston (IAH) 84 74 89 76 92 / 70 30 60 20 40
Galveston (GLS) 85 80 87 81 89 / 70 50 60 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for the following
zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Galveston
Island...Matagorda Islands.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 291059
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
559 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021
.AVIATION...
Mix of IFR/MVFR cigs north of I-10 should lift toward mid morning.
Shra/tstm coverage should increase along/south of I-10 in the next
several hours, then look for increased coverage across the
remainder of the area late this morning and afternoon. A wide
variety of cigs are anticipated during the day considering precip
coverage, though mainly VFR away from the strongest cells (which
could produce heavy rain, gusty winds & reduced vis). Precip
should taper off fairly quickly this evening. MVFR stratus will
probably redevelop from CXO northward after 8z. 47
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021/
SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Night]...
Water vapor imagery shows upper low situated over nw Mexico early
this morning. GOES 16 Total Precip Water product estimating
2.1-2.4" values across SE Tx and surface obs show a well defined
area of speed convergence along a weak trof at the coast. Already
seeing some sct development along and to the south of this zone,
and anticipate an uptick in areal coverage between now and mid
morning across the southern parts of the CWA...expanding further
inland & areawide as temps warm a bit into late morning and this
afternoon. Potential for localized heavy rain in a short time
period remains a possibility, but it should be just that -
localized (with southern parts of the CWA invof srn convergent
zone more favored region). Precip should taper off fairly quickly
this evening.
Moisture availability trends town a touch tonight and Wed (PW`s down
to 1.9-2.1") and weak mid level ridging builds in from the ne.
Combination of both should allow for less precip coverage than we
had Mon & today esp nrn 1/3 of the area. However, still anticipate
most areas south of Brenham-Livingston line to see fairly good
chances of some diurnally driven precip. 47
LONG TERM [Thursday Morning Through Monday Night]...
With a gentle mid-level high pressure in place on Thursday and
ample low-level moisture, a more summer-like pattern of diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms will return. This mid-level high
pressure will begin to retreat back to the west on Friday as a
trough over the Great Lakes deepens and pushes further south. This
trough will drag a cold front into TX this weekend which is
expected to stall across our CWA and dissipate along our coast
early next week. Through the holiday weekend and into early next
week, showers and thunderstorms will be focused along this frontal
boundary. Rain chances will range from 50-80% and peak in the
late afternoon each day.
Rain and cloud cover will help keep daytime high temperatures
near 90 through the long term, but cloud cover overnight and
onshore flow will keep overnight lows in a very muggy mid-70s.
KBL
MARINE...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected once again
today. Winds outside of this convection are southeast at 15 to 20
knots, and therefore a Small Craft Exercise Caution will be in
place until at least tonight. However, winds and seas will be
higher in and around these showers and storms today. Onshore flow
will persist through the weekend as a cold front approaches the
coast on Saturday. Therefore, rain chances are expected each day
through the weekend with activity peaking in the late afternoon
and evening.
Strong rip currents are expected again today along our beaches due
to moderate onshore flow. Beachgoers should swim near a lifeguard
and monitor weather conditions closely while at the beach.
TROPICAL...
Tropical Depression Danny continues to push inland on the Georgia
coast and will continue to push west and dissipate on land. The
hurricane center is also monitoring an area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms in the East Atlantic. As it moves west-
northwest at 15 to 20 mph, it has a 40% chance of development in
the next 5 days. Global deterministic and ensemble models still
vary widely on its path after 5 days. Therefore, our office is
monitoring it, but does not have high confidence on impacts for
southeast TX this far out. Once again, this is a reminder that we
are in the middle of hurricane season and best practice is to
always stay up to date with the latest forecasts from our office
and the hurricane center. Make sure you have a plan in place and
plenty of hurricane supplies.
KBL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 73 89 75 92 / 70 30 40 20 20
Houston (IAH) 84 74 89 76 92 / 70 30 60 20 40
Galveston (GLS) 85 80 87 81 89 / 70 50 60 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for the following
zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Galveston
Island...Matagorda Islands.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Rain is moving-in here now.
Pool construction did not start today due to the weather. What are the odds? For now…we wait.
Pool construction did not start today due to the weather. What are the odds? For now…we wait.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Interesting to note that their is a huge blow up of convection/ storms in the southern gulf, not sure if those are just general storms or if its a weak feature to watch
12z GFS operational loses 97L around Cuba but the ensemble has some members keeping it through the Gulf around the end of next week.
Yeah, when we signed in April, we were #13 in line. The gunite shortage (and crazy demand) backed everyone up.
Now, we are finally next in line, utilities marked, etc…..and waiting on the rain to clear. At this point, we are totally at the mercy of mother nature. For once, I just want the rain to stop.
Despite how far 97l is out chances are increasing of a system moving across the Caribbean with a setup that could get it into the Gulf. 12z GFS has joined the Euro with a weaker system. The Ukie is now on board with a TS approaching Eastern Cuba/ Yucatan channel.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Holy Crap is anyone seeing the 12z Euro run!!?! Flooding could become a major concern by the 4th
Yep the Euro has been showing a cut off low forming over the state for the last several runs.Showing more of a Spring like pattern than Summer.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
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That would spell big time trouble potentially, Euro has a 23 inch bullseye somewhere in SE or Central Texas
If that much rain fell in CTX think about what would happen downstream.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 29, 2021 2:34 pm That would spell big time trouble potentially, Euro has a 23 inch bullseye somewhere in SE or Central Texas
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
CPV17 yeah that would be awful, but yeah seeing as the Euro has been showing a Cut off Low in its previous runs, this definitely needs to be watched
Yeah, seriously. Those cut off lows can produce some of our biggest floods. Even more so sometimes than tropical systems.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 29, 2021 2:42 pm CPV17 yeah that would be awful, but yeah seeing as the Euro has been showing a Cut off Low in its previous runs, this definitely needs to be watched