June 2021: PTC 3 & Traking A Cold Front

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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Re: June 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Thu Jun 10, 2021 9:27 am

Pas_Bon wrote:
Thu Jun 10, 2021 7:43 am
djmike wrote:
Thu Jun 10, 2021 7:14 am
don wrote:
Thu Jun 10, 2021 6:51 am
0Z Euro
I SAID NOOOO TX/LA BORDER! Stop it! <wink wink>

Well, these model runs are happening because you’re an A&M fan.
Yeah, the models would mean 100°F and no rain in College Station. Again. I haven't used the sprinklers in quite awhile and would like to keep it that way. ;)

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don
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Re: June 2021

Post by don » Thu Jun 10, 2021 11:12 am

12Z GFS shows the storm slowly moving north out of the BOC late next week. With landfall of a category 1 the following week around Baffin Bay FWIW.
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Screenshot 2021-06-10 at 11-56-30 Models GFS — Pivotal Weather.png

Stratton20
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Re: June 2021

Post by Stratton20 » Thu Jun 10, 2021 11:21 am

Even though thats 12 days out, I think what’s happening here is that it seems that the models are saying that whatever forms in the BOC is going to be really moving slowly North or just meandering because of weak steering currents

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don
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Re: June 2021

Post by don » Thu Jun 10, 2021 11:29 am

The Canadian is faster than the GFS fwiw with a landfall in north Mexico over the weekend of next week.
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gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_38.png

Stratton20
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Re: June 2021

Post by Stratton20 » Thu Jun 10, 2021 11:36 am

Even a landfall in North Mexico would still bring us impacts , definitely something to watch, hope this system doesnt end up stall, but we shall see, definitely wouldnt be surpised by Saturday or Sunday if the NHC highlights the Southern Gulf

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DoctorMu
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Re: June 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Thu Jun 10, 2021 12:17 pm

A kat-astrophe.

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CRASHWX
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Re: June 2021

Post by CRASHWX » Thu Jun 10, 2021 12:46 pm

Again would not focus on the details....i would focus on the big picture development right now. So many things will change over the next 10 days
:ugeek: CRASHWX :ugeek:

Stratton20
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Re: June 2021

Post by Stratton20 » Thu Jun 10, 2021 12:49 pm

I think its important to focus on details as these model depictions can give us hints and clues as to what may happen next week( not saying these models will be right, but they definitely give us reason to watch them), I have moderate to high confidence that something will spin up in the BOC, after that well im not going to evem try to say where it will go, steering currents look to be pretty sporadic

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don
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Re: June 2021

Post by don » Thu Jun 10, 2021 1:18 pm

Yep we shouldn't pay too much attention to details such as track and strength this far out,whats more important in this range is seeing consistency from run to run in regards to tc genesis. 12z EURO with a Depression or weak Tropical Storm meandering around the coast the end of next week.Until we at least have an invest expect big differences in regards to strength and track from run to run.Saying that it does seem at this time if something does develop in the gulf it will be in the western gulf and we need to keep a very close eye next week.
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Screenshot 2021-06-10 at 14-00-28 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.png

Stratton20
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Re: June 2021

Post by Stratton20 » Thu Jun 10, 2021 1:27 pm

I know its definitely impossible to know the strength of this potential system, what am I growing somewhat concerned is the fact that the Euro is meandering this system off the Texas coast for a few days , definitely too early still, but thats not something you want to see a model showing

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