June 2021: PTC 3 & Traking A Cold Front

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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Re: June 2021

Post by jasons2k » Thu Jun 10, 2021 1:40 pm

As others have posted, it’s too early to focus on the details of any particular model run. A lot will change over the next week that just can’t be resolved by the models this far out.

I’d advise folks to pay attention to our Senior Members and Pro-Mets for reliable information 😉

Stratton20
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Re: June 2021

Post by Stratton20 » Thu Jun 10, 2021 3:16 pm

The 12z Euro has the tropical disturbance getting into the BOC by this sunday/ monday, thats sooner than the GFS or other models, thats something to watch and see if this occurs

Cpv17
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Re: June 2021

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Jun 10, 2021 3:16 pm

The EPS definitely looks concerning for the western Gulf.

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Re: June 2021

Post by Stratton20 » Thu Jun 10, 2021 3:19 pm

Cpv17 do you have a picture?

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Re: June 2021

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Jun 10, 2021 3:25 pm

Stratton20 wrote:
Thu Jun 10, 2021 3:19 pm
Cpv17 do you have a picture?
Yep:

Image

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Re: June 2021

Post by Stratton20 » Thu Jun 10, 2021 3:27 pm

Oh yeah that’s definitely concerning, next week is going to be interesting for sure, we got alot to watch

Scott747
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Re: June 2021

Post by Scott747 » Thu Jun 10, 2021 3:34 pm

Actually, that's not 'concerning' considering there's 50 ensemble members....

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don
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Re: June 2021

Post by don » Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:15 pm

Scott747 wrote:
Thu Jun 10, 2021 3:34 pm
Actually, that's not 'concerning' considering there's 50 ensemble members....
To be fair that's still a decent amount of ensemble support,and operational support considering were still 7+ days out from possible tc genesis.

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Re: June 2021

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:25 pm

For those that aren’t aware (and I wasn’t aware of this for the longest time) , the Euro model has 51 ensemble members that make up the EPS while the GFS model has 21 ensemble members that make up the GEFS. I’ve been following the weather closely for over 10 years now and I just recently learned that maybe 2 or 3 years ago. I feel like it’s good to educate everyone on that.

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Re: June 2021

Post by Scott747 » Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:26 pm

don wrote:
Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:15 pm
Scott747 wrote:
Thu Jun 10, 2021 3:34 pm
Actually, that's not 'concerning' considering there's 50 ensemble members....
To be fair that's still a decent amount of ensemble support,and operational support considering were still 7+ days out from possible tc genesis.
For a potential system? Somewhat, no disagreement there. But even then the ensembles are having issues with an eventual epac focus, a split or a BoC genesis. Standard op with these gyre systems.

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