June 2021: PTC 3 & Traking A Cold Front

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
Posts: 335
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: Katy, Texas
Contact:

Re: June 2021

Post by Stratton20 » Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:29 pm

Well whatever happens regardless their is one thing that is pretty clear, if this does end up developing in the BOC it is going to be a western gulf threat, if that is Mexico, Louisiana or Texas , that still is to be determined

Scott747
Posts: 1216
Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2010 9:56 am
Location: Freeport/Surfside Beach
Contact:

Re: June 2021

Post by Scott747 » Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:35 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:25 pm
For those that aren’t aware (and I wasn’t aware of this for the longest time) , the Euro model has 51 ensemble members that make up the EPS while the GFS model has 21 ensemble members that make up the GEFS. I’ve been following the weather closely for over 10 years now and I just recently learned that maybe 2 or 3 years ago. I feel like it’s good to educate everyone on that.
The GFS now has 31 members after the recent upgrade (v.12.0) I've mentioned previously.

Cpv17
Posts: 2044
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Re: June 2021

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:36 pm

Scott747 wrote:
Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:35 pm
Cpv17 wrote:
Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:25 pm
For those that aren’t aware (and I wasn’t aware of this for the longest time) , the Euro model has 51 ensemble members that make up the EPS while the GFS model has 21 ensemble members that make up the GEFS. I’ve been following the weather closely for over 10 years now and I just recently learned that maybe 2 or 3 years ago. I feel like it’s good to educate everyone on that.
The GFS now has 31 members after the recent upgrade (v.12.0) I've mentioned previously.
Sweet. That should help.

Scott747
Posts: 1216
Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2010 9:56 am
Location: Freeport/Surfside Beach
Contact:

Re: June 2021

Post by Scott747 » Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:48 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:36 pm
Scott747 wrote:
Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:35 pm
Cpv17 wrote:
Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:25 pm
For those that aren’t aware (and I wasn’t aware of this for the longest time) , the Euro model has 51 ensemble members that make up the EPS while the GFS model has 21 ensemble members that make up the GEFS. I’ve been following the weather closely for over 10 years now and I just recently learned that maybe 2 or 3 years ago. I feel like it’s good to educate everyone on that.
The GFS now has 31 members after the recent upgrade (v.12.0) I've mentioned previously.
Sweet. That should help.
Yeah between the operational upgrade in March and the ensemble upgrade the change was significant and substantial. Testing showed a much better hit on genesis. So those first few potential storms are important.

One knock though between the two big guns is with the GFS running four times a day as opposed to two like the euro it has more opportunities to be 'wrong.' So far it's been inline with what the euro is showing outside of a few runs and even then it wasn't by much.

Stratton20
Posts: 335
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: Katy, Texas
Contact:

Re: June 2021

Post by Stratton20 » Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:53 pm

18z GFS run has a weak tropical storm slowly heading north and then stalls it somewhere along the middle texas coast🤔🤔

Pas_Bon
Posts: 82
Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:58 am
Location: Kemah, TX
Contact:

Re: June 2021

Post by Pas_Bon » Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:49 pm

Stratton20 wrote:
Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:53 pm
18z GFS run has a weak tropical storm slowly heading north and then stalls it somewhere along the middle texas coast🤔🤔
:(
No. No. No. No. No

Cpv17
Posts: 2044
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Re: June 2021

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:54 pm

18z GFS is a typical June sloppy sheared ts with most of the convection well east of the center.

Stormlover2020
Posts: 301
Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2020 5:04 pm
Contact:

Re: June 2021

Post by Stormlover2020 » Thu Jun 10, 2021 6:23 pm

Yeah no doubt I would agree with the western gulf

User avatar
sambucol
Posts: 602
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 5:43 pm
Location: Baytown
Contact:

Re: June 2021

Post by sambucol » Thu Jun 10, 2021 6:37 pm

When would there be landfall if it forms and heads to the middle to upper Texas coast.

Stratton20
Posts: 335
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: Katy, Texas
Contact:

Re: June 2021

Post by Stratton20 » Thu Jun 10, 2021 6:39 pm

SamBucol If i had to take my best guess, sometime by next friday or ao

Post Reply