June 2021:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
sau27
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12z GFS operational loses 97L around Cuba but the ensemble has some members keeping it through the Gulf around the end of next week.
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jasons2k
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Cpv17 wrote: Tue Jun 29, 2021 12:12 pm
jasons2k wrote: Tue Jun 29, 2021 12:10 pm Rain is moving-in here now.
Pool construction did not start today due to the weather. What are the odds? For now…we wait.
You’ve been waiting forever on that pool lol
Yeah, when we signed in April, we were #13 in line. The gunite shortage (and crazy demand) backed everyone up.

Now, we are finally next in line, utilities marked, etc…..and waiting on the rain to clear. At this point, we are totally at the mercy of mother nature. For once, I just want the rain to stop.
Scott747
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Despite how far 97l is out chances are increasing of a system moving across the Caribbean with a setup that could get it into the Gulf. 12z GFS has joined the Euro with a weaker system. The Ukie is now on board with a TS approaching Eastern Cuba/ Yucatan channel.
Stratton20
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Holy Crap is anyone seeing the 12z Euro run!!?! Flooding could become a major concern by the 4th
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don
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Yep the Euro has been showing a cut off low forming over the state for the last several runs.Showing more of a Spring like pattern than Summer.
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Screenshot 2021-06-29 at 14-11-12 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.png
Stratton20
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That would spell big time trouble potentially, Euro has a 23 inch bullseye somewhere in SE or Central Texas
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Tue Jun 29, 2021 2:34 pm That would spell big time trouble potentially, Euro has a 23 inch bullseye somewhere in SE or Central Texas
If that much rain fell in CTX think about what would happen downstream.
Stratton20
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CPV17 yeah that would be awful, but yeah seeing as the Euro has been showing a Cut off Low in its previous runs, this definitely needs to be watched
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Tue Jun 29, 2021 2:42 pm CPV17 yeah that would be awful, but yeah seeing as the Euro has been showing a Cut off Low in its previous runs, this definitely needs to be watched
Yeah, seriously. Those cut off lows can produce some of our biggest floods. Even more so sometimes than tropical systems.
Cpv17
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don wrote: Tue Jun 29, 2021 2:26 pm Yep the Euro has been showing a cut off low forming over the state for the last several runs.Showing more of a Spring like pattern than Summer.
GFS is nowhere’s near that so I’m not sure I buy it yet.
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