June 2021:
Bad storm near Atascocita and points north.
The line along the sea breeze put the brakes on as soon as it got to my doorstep. Normally I'd be pretty upset about such a turn of events but not this time.
-
Katdaddy
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2502
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
- Location: League City, Tx
- Contact:
Time to get the active pattern weather party started. It will be interesting as always to see how storms/storm complexes interact and work over the atmosphere from day to day and who will win the rainfall lottery.
Some of our trees never recovered.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 6:28 pmYep, a severe drought(s) does so much more long term damage than flooding does.
I don't know where it came from but we just received 1.25" in the last hour.
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0267
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
928 PM EDT Wed Jun 02 2021
Areas affected...central to southeastern TX
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 030124Z - 030605Z
Summary...Slow moving and repeating thunderstorms will pose a
flash flood threat to portions of central and southeastern TX
through 06Z. Rainfall rates locally between 2-3 in/hr may lead to
a few pockets of 2-4 inches by 06Z.
Discussion...01Z radar imagery showed a small but slow moving
cluster of convection just north of Houston, located along a
stationary front that draped WNW to ESE across central and
southeastern TX. Ground truth at some nearby stations matched KHGX
rainfall estimates peaking just over 2 in/hr in Harris County.
Upstream radar imagery over central TX showed a southeastward
tracking cluster of thunderstorms moving along the stationary
front to the west of I-35, with additional thunderstorms on either
side of I-35 near Round Rock. The 01Z SPC mesoanalysis showed a
lingering region of MLCAPE between 2000 and 2500 J/kg between
Houston and Austin which will continue to support convection in
the short term.
Radar trends and deeper-layer mean wind forecasts support a
continued east-southeastward movement to the upstream cluster
approaching I-35. Meanwhile, weaker flow near Houston has
supported regeneration of convection to the north of the city with
outflow to the west located over western Montgomery and Harris
counties. Convergence ahead of the advancing cluster west of I-35
and along the surface front should continue to support additional
thunderstorm development over the next 2-4 hours. Rainfall rates
peaking near 2 in/hr may support a few areas with additional
rainfall totals of 2-4 inches through 06Z. Weak 850 mb flow should
allow for eventual propagation of storms off toward the southeast
and a possible end to the flash flood threat beyond 06Z.
Otto
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...
ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...
LAT...LON 30999782 30619586 30529483 30089443 29699475
29419560 29339630 29429735 30099856 30829868
-
Katdaddy
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2502
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
- Location: League City, Tx
- Contact:
...Strong Thunderstorm Continues Moving Southeast Just Outside The
Loop...
At 842 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hunterwood, or over Jacinto City, moving southeast at 10 mph.
Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Pasadena, northwestern Baytown, northern Friendswood, Deer Park,
South Houston, Galena Park, Jacinto City, Greater Fifth Ward,
Cloverleaf, Channelview, South Belt / Ellington, Highlands, Barrett,
northern Clear Lake, Second Ward, Greater Hobby Area, Morgan`s Point,
Golfcrest / Bellfort / Reveille, Harrisburg / Manchester and Park
Place.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Loop...
At 842 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hunterwood, or over Jacinto City, moving southeast at 10 mph.
Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Pasadena, northwestern Baytown, northern Friendswood, Deer Park,
South Houston, Galena Park, Jacinto City, Greater Fifth Ward,
Cloverleaf, Channelview, South Belt / Ellington, Highlands, Barrett,
northern Clear Lake, Second Ward, Greater Hobby Area, Morgan`s Point,
Golfcrest / Bellfort / Reveille, Harrisburg / Manchester and Park
Place.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Some killer outflow in Friendswood.
Heck of a storm just sitting on the north side of Katy right now. Been there for a while now.
Nice little storm barreling down from the Austin area.
Obviously, the Houston NWS is a little frustrated with these small mesoscale features constantly derailing their short-term forecasts. Basically starting now through probably Tuesday evening, I would strongly recommend taking an nowcast approach, essentially focusing on 6 to 12 hours at a time. Of course the NWS and paid meteorologists can’t get away with this approach but I can. So that’s how I’m going to approach these next few days with all of these hard to predict/time mesoscale and regional features that global/mesoscale computer models often struggle with during these types of weather patterns.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1238 AM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021
.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...
Ok. Let's start over again. Numerous boundaries and a favorable
jet placememt aloft have helped to make this a rather messy and
eventful evening. The forecast for the overnight into the early
morning hours will be largely dominated by all these meso feat-
ures. And so, with confidence at an all-time low, have opted to
keep the mention of VCTS/TSRA/SHRA in for most sites these next
6hrs at the very least. Will have to see how all this will play
out for the late morning/afternoon portions of the forecast but
models are keeping things active/wet throughout. We may finally
see some clearing/drying (in the short-term at least) by 01-03Z
if the guidance does verify. 41
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1238 AM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021
.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...
Ok. Let's start over again. Numerous boundaries and a favorable
jet placememt aloft have helped to make this a rather messy and
eventful evening. The forecast for the overnight into the early
morning hours will be largely dominated by all these meso feat-
ures. And so, with confidence at an all-time low, have opted to
keep the mention of VCTS/TSRA/SHRA in for most sites these next
6hrs at the very least. Will have to see how all this will play
out for the late morning/afternoon portions of the forecast but
models are keeping things active/wet throughout. We may finally
see some clearing/drying (in the short-term at least) by 01-03Z
if the guidance does verify. 41
Werent these crazy rain totals originally supposed to start early/mid week? Now it seems the 70-80% coverages starts Friday Saturday Sunday Monday. AtLeast for Beaumont it does. Did the start of this get pushed later? Havent gotten a drop all week. Just curious if this event timeline changed. TIA
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
There was alot of thunder and lightning with the storm late last night.Woke me up in the middle of the night lol. Looks like today may be the first day of more widespread rain this afternoon.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
452 AM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021
.SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday Night]...
Storms moving out of CWA with the tail end of the s/w over the
ARKLATEX early this morning. Outflow pushing down into the coastal
areas with rain cooled air in the upper 60s over the west and
northwest areas. This should get the area a period to recover this
morning as winds first relax then begin to increase out of the
east/southeast drawing back the moisture. Convective temperatures
of 81-82 will be easily reachable today and as next s/w (over S
TX/Rio Grande Valley) arrives this afternoon expect a blossoming
of the convection over the area. PW 1.75-1.9" should provide
abundant moisture to the storms and wind profiles are weak with
storm motion of around 10 to possibly 15 knots so will support
heavy rainfall/rates of 2"+/hour. Remnant boundary drifting back
north today will likely be the initial trigger but where storms go
after that is still in question albeit generally moving north or
northeast. Profiles indicate abundant CAPE 2500-3300 j/kg and no
cap by early afternoon. Some strong gusty winds will be possible
in these storms Will start off the afternoon with a belt of
higher rain chances along the I-10 corridor but then quickly
expanding northward. Heavy rainfall amounts should be localized
today. This evening rain chances fall quickly and will probably be
more focused toward the coast where some weak speed convergence
will be available. Rain chances then increase toward sunrise near
the coast Friday morning and quickly ramp up into fairly
widespread coverage central and south then areawide in the
afternoon. Soundings again support locally heavy rainfall, strong
gusty winds with steep low level lapse rates. CAPE again in excess
of 2500 with no cap. Upper level winds will become more favorable
as subtropical jet taps into 1.9-2.0" PW with a strengthening
left front quad before switching to the right rear this weekend.
At this point - Friday may warrant a Flash Flood Watch as
clusters of storms look a bit more likely. Will likely let the day
shift make that call IF the guidance continues to point to this
same scenario evolving. Temperatures will be running below climo
during the day and near or above climo south/near climo north
thanks to all the rain and extensive cloud cover.
45
.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...
As the weekend continues (along with our extended period of active
weather), the synoptic pattern continues to look favorable for
periods of locally heavy rainfall. By early Saturday, global models
continue to indicate a robust upper-level low over central/western
TX, with broad surface high pressure over the Western
Atlantic/Eastern CONUS and deepening pressures along the leeside of
the Rocky Mountains. Surface moisture availability will remain
abundant with persistent southerly flow over the Gulf of Mexico
keeping total PW values close to 2 inches. Based on SPC`s upper-air
sounding climatology at our two nearest RAOB sites (CRP/LCH), these
values would fall somewhere in the ~90th percentile range for early
June across our area. An upper-jet streak associated with the
advancing low will draw nearer to SE TX during this time, placing
the region within its right rear quadrant and thereby enhancing
divergence aloft.
As a series of vort maxes/shortwave axes round the trough base,
several periods of locally heavy rainfall will be possible through
the remainder of the weekend and into the early part of next week.
Our main window of initial concern continues to be in the late
Saturday to early Sunday timeframe, though the latest EC continues
to highlight this scenario to a greater extent than the GFS.
Additional periods of heavy rainfall remain a possibility through
Wednesday despite the loss of support via upper jet dynamics, though
it`s difficult to pinpoint more specific location/rainfall amounts
for impacts at this time as global deterministic solutions continue
to vary with each run.
Most locations can still expect to see 4-7" of total rainfall over
the next 7 days per WPC`s latest totals. That being said, locally
higher amounts during this time with the formation of individually
stronger storms/training cells are a strong possibility. The
potential for flash flooding as a result of locally heavy downpours
remains a concern for us, and Flash Flood Watches may be needed in
the coming days. As this event unfolds, continue to stay up to date
with the latest forecast information, particularly if you`re
planning to travel or partake in any outdoor activities.
Relief may finally arrive towards the end of next week as upper
ridging begins to build into the central CONUS. Overall, temperature
forecast remains generally unchanged with daily highs in the low
to mid 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Cady
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
452 AM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021
.SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday Night]...
Storms moving out of CWA with the tail end of the s/w over the
ARKLATEX early this morning. Outflow pushing down into the coastal
areas with rain cooled air in the upper 60s over the west and
northwest areas. This should get the area a period to recover this
morning as winds first relax then begin to increase out of the
east/southeast drawing back the moisture. Convective temperatures
of 81-82 will be easily reachable today and as next s/w (over S
TX/Rio Grande Valley) arrives this afternoon expect a blossoming
of the convection over the area. PW 1.75-1.9" should provide
abundant moisture to the storms and wind profiles are weak with
storm motion of around 10 to possibly 15 knots so will support
heavy rainfall/rates of 2"+/hour. Remnant boundary drifting back
north today will likely be the initial trigger but where storms go
after that is still in question albeit generally moving north or
northeast. Profiles indicate abundant CAPE 2500-3300 j/kg and no
cap by early afternoon. Some strong gusty winds will be possible
in these storms Will start off the afternoon with a belt of
higher rain chances along the I-10 corridor but then quickly
expanding northward. Heavy rainfall amounts should be localized
today. This evening rain chances fall quickly and will probably be
more focused toward the coast where some weak speed convergence
will be available. Rain chances then increase toward sunrise near
the coast Friday morning and quickly ramp up into fairly
widespread coverage central and south then areawide in the
afternoon. Soundings again support locally heavy rainfall, strong
gusty winds with steep low level lapse rates. CAPE again in excess
of 2500 with no cap. Upper level winds will become more favorable
as subtropical jet taps into 1.9-2.0" PW with a strengthening
left front quad before switching to the right rear this weekend.
At this point - Friday may warrant a Flash Flood Watch as
clusters of storms look a bit more likely. Will likely let the day
shift make that call IF the guidance continues to point to this
same scenario evolving. Temperatures will be running below climo
during the day and near or above climo south/near climo north
thanks to all the rain and extensive cloud cover.
45
.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...
As the weekend continues (along with our extended period of active
weather), the synoptic pattern continues to look favorable for
periods of locally heavy rainfall. By early Saturday, global models
continue to indicate a robust upper-level low over central/western
TX, with broad surface high pressure over the Western
Atlantic/Eastern CONUS and deepening pressures along the leeside of
the Rocky Mountains. Surface moisture availability will remain
abundant with persistent southerly flow over the Gulf of Mexico
keeping total PW values close to 2 inches. Based on SPC`s upper-air
sounding climatology at our two nearest RAOB sites (CRP/LCH), these
values would fall somewhere in the ~90th percentile range for early
June across our area. An upper-jet streak associated with the
advancing low will draw nearer to SE TX during this time, placing
the region within its right rear quadrant and thereby enhancing
divergence aloft.
As a series of vort maxes/shortwave axes round the trough base,
several periods of locally heavy rainfall will be possible through
the remainder of the weekend and into the early part of next week.
Our main window of initial concern continues to be in the late
Saturday to early Sunday timeframe, though the latest EC continues
to highlight this scenario to a greater extent than the GFS.
Additional periods of heavy rainfall remain a possibility through
Wednesday despite the loss of support via upper jet dynamics, though
it`s difficult to pinpoint more specific location/rainfall amounts
for impacts at this time as global deterministic solutions continue
to vary with each run.
Most locations can still expect to see 4-7" of total rainfall over
the next 7 days per WPC`s latest totals. That being said, locally
higher amounts during this time with the formation of individually
stronger storms/training cells are a strong possibility. The
potential for flash flooding as a result of locally heavy downpours
remains a concern for us, and Flash Flood Watches may be needed in
the coming days. As this event unfolds, continue to stay up to date
with the latest forecast information, particularly if you`re
planning to travel or partake in any outdoor activities.
Relief may finally arrive towards the end of next week as upper
ridging begins to build into the central CONUS. Overall, temperature
forecast remains generally unchanged with daily highs in the low
to mid 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Cady
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4245
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
I dont think we will be seeing that Ridge by the end of next week, seems like the GFS continues rain chances into next Monday-Tuesday or ao
The solution of the MCS over the Hill Country this afternoon is an enigma wrapped in a mystery. Probable bust.
More action likely on Friday with a 50% chance of rain (daily) after that until Tuesday at least.
More action likely on Friday with a 50% chance of rain (daily) after that until Tuesday at least.
The atmosphere is juicy and cooking now. Storms already firing up around the area.
Not concerned about a bust today, storms are already firing off.