June 2021:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 3275
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

June 2021:

Post by tireman4 » Fri May 21, 2021 7:01 am

The first month of Summer. Shall it be hot? Shall it be rainy? We shall see.

Cpv17
Posts: 2513
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Re: June 2021

Post by Cpv17 » Sat May 22, 2021 12:33 am

tireman4 wrote:
Fri May 21, 2021 7:01 am
The first month of Summer. Shall it be hot? Shall it be rainy? We shall see.
Hopefully rainy.

User avatar
Katdaddy
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2396
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
Location: League City, Tx
Contact:

Re: June 2021

Post by Katdaddy » Sun May 23, 2021 11:00 am

Hopefully no visitors from the tropics. PCH&H as Tom Siler the “Weather Wizard” said many years ago on Ch 11.

User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 3311
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 10:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Re: June 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Mon May 31, 2021 10:08 am

Won't happen, but more of the same please!

User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 3311
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 10:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Re: June 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Mon May 31, 2021 12:35 pm

DoctorMu wrote:
Mon May 31, 2021 10:08 am
Won't happen, but more of the same please!
...or maybe so through mid-month. 80s and chance of rain through June 14. 8-)

Cpv17
Posts: 2513
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Re: June 2021

Post by Cpv17 » Mon May 31, 2021 3:07 pm

The latest 12z runs by the GFS and the Euro are pretty much complete washouts. I think we could be dealing with some more flash flood watches possibly as soon as Wednesday.

User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19516
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Contact:

Re: June 2021

Post by srainhoutx » Mon May 31, 2021 4:57 pm

I talked to my Family back in SE Texas today. I let them know that we are suffering with low temperatures in the 40's the past couple of days here in the Smokies. It's been a very mild Spring and early Summer for you Texas folk as well as here in the Mountains!
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity

User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19516
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Contact:

Re: June 2021

Post by srainhoutx » Mon May 31, 2021 5:56 pm

Monday evening weather briefing from Jeff:

After a few drier days…wet weather will return as soon as Tuesday and last into next week.

Overall upcoming pattern is similar to the heavy rains of last week and similar patterns of 2015 an 2016 with a slow moving and at times cut off upper level low over the SW US which will send multiple disturbances across TX starting today and lasting into early next week. Influx of Gulf of Mexico moisture will remain steady as onshore winds provide a continuous supply of low level moisture into the region. PWS will hover in the 1.75-2.0 inch range for much of the week helping to ensure efficient rainfall production. As disturbances eject out of NE MX and into C and SC TX nearly daily, clusters and complexes of thunderstorms will develop and move E or SE over the region. When exactly each disturbance will rotate out of MX is uncertain and what state the local air mass will be ahead of each disturbance can also be hard to determine when dealing with large thunderstorm complexes (MCS).

Point is that the pattern will support complexes and clusters of thunderstorms nearly at any time from Tuesday onward with both a heavy rainfall and marginal severe weather threat. Some days will likely have higher threats on both heavy rainfall and severe weather depending on local mesoscale factors and timing of disturbances aloft.

Widespread rainfall of 3-5 inches is likely over the next several days, and while the initial logical is the spread such totals out evenly over the course of 5-7 days, that is usually not how it works here this time of year and 1-3 inches may fall in a few hours or less as clusters and complexes move across the region. Grounds are still wet from the 10-15 inches of rainfall in May over the region and it will not take much rainfall to result in run-off and renewed rises on area watersheds…especially as the rainfall totals accumulate over time.

Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity

User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 3311
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 10:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Re: June 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Mon May 31, 2021 9:00 pm

More 80s and wet through possibly mid-month.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
640 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

Confidence is quite high in the broad idea of unsettled weather
tonight into tomorrow as a convective system comes in from the
north, and shower/storm chances continue with a front sweeping
through tomorrow. The specifics of how this plays out is much less
certain. As a result, have broad windows of VCSH/VCTS at most
sites, especially from IAH northward. Refinements will gradually
try to whittle down times for storms to more narrow windows in
coming cycles, but would rather err on the side of caution for now
rather than potentially have to make dramatic changes later
tonight/tomorrow morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 310 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021/...

.SHORT TERM [This Afternoon Through Tuesday Night]...

Currently, moderate low-level onshore flow has helped increase cloud
and moisture across southeast Texas. Much like yesterday, isolated
showers have developed west of I-45 where this onshore temperature
and moisture advection is the strongest. With daytime temperatures
peaking later this afternoon, expect some of these showers to
strengthen into thunderstorms that will soon diminish after sunset
when temperatures begin to cool.

Overnight, higher rain chances return as an upper-level trough digs
deeper into the Southwest US where its western flank will leave a
cutoff low over the Baja Peninsula. This cutoff low will begin our
period of prolonged wet weather this week. The remaining trough will
push a cold front across Texas overnight where it is expected to
reach our northern counties a few hours before sunrise. Hi-res
models differ on where this front will stall throughout the day,
with some deterministic solutions indicating as far south as Harris
County, but most models predict it will stay draped across our
northern counties as it dissipates through Tuesday evening. SPC has
placed Houston, Polk, and Trinity counties in a marginal risk for
thunderstorms tomorrow. With the frontal boundary stalled overhead
and breaks in the cloud cover leading to surface heating, some
strong to severe afternoon thunderstorms are possible for these
counties. With strengthening onshore flow across the rest of our
counties, isolated pulse showers and thunderstorms are also possible
tomorrow afternoon, especially in areas where breaks in the cloud
cover lead to the most daytime heating. Temperatures tomorrow will
be similar to today`s with daytime highs reaching the mid-80s and
overnight lows in the very muggy 70s.

KBL


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...

Periods of showers and thunderstorms can be expected through much
of the long term period as a slow moving upper low currently near
the Baja California area gradually works its way toward Texas. A
series of shortwaves will be moving across the state, and with a
persistent onshore flow in place expect these currently hard to
time impulses to bring the state a lot more rain. Our area`s best
chances look like they might end up at the end of the week and
especially over the weekend when the low works its way into the
state and becomes an even slower mover. The positioning of the low
and how fast (or slow?) it moves will become a major player as to
any chances of locally heavy rainfall and how much rain our area
eventually receives.

For now, in the short and long term periods combined (roughly over
the next eight days), look for widespread 2 to 4 inch rainfall
totals with isolated amounts possibly exceeding 5 inches for
potentially a large part of the area. As you well know, 2 to 4
inch rains in Southeast Texas can easily fall in a hour or less,
and if this happens over the same area over several rounds of
storms, flooding could easily become a threat. Stay tuned to the
forecasts as the week progresses (they can easily and significantly
change) and monitor how much rain falls/accumulates in and near
your area. Grounds have been wet across much of Southeast Texas
these past couple of weeks, and it will probably not take a whole
lot of additional rain to lead to flooding issues. 42


.MARINE...

Another extended period of wet weather is expected over the next week
or so, with rain chances generally on the rise through mid-week as
a series of upper-level disturbances move through the area. Winds will
generally remain out of the southeast through the period, occasionally
approaching caution levels through Tuesday and relaxing through the
remainder of the week. Over the weekend and into the start of next
week, look for an increase in winds and seas along with even better
rain chances. Elevated winds and seas will be possible in and around
the storms. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 70 85 70 82 69 / 50 50 50 60 30
Houston (IAH) 72 86 72 85 71 / 30 50 40 70 30
Galveston (GLS) 76 84 76 84 76 / 20 30 40 40 30

&&

User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 3311
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 10:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Re: June 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Mon May 31, 2021 9:35 pm

The storms near Del Rio could be heading toward the Houston area.

Post Reply