June 2021:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
unome
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Re: June 2021:

Post by unome » Tue Jun 29, 2021 7:15 pm

jasons2k wrote:
Tue Jun 29, 2021 3:20 pm
Nightmare for a pool contractor. My hopes for having this done before Labor Day appear to be diminishing. Murphy’s Law at work I suppose.
First world problems, heh ?

Cpv17
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Re: June 2021:

Post by Cpv17 » Tue Jun 29, 2021 7:25 pm

Looks like 97L has a shot at being classified as early as tomorrow at the rate it’s consolidating.

Stratton20
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Re: June 2021:

Post by Stratton20 » Tue Jun 29, 2021 7:27 pm

CPV17 yep I suspect it will at least become a depression by tommorow, looks very healthy on satillite imagery ,

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jasons2k
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Re: June 2021:

Post by jasons2k » Tue Jun 29, 2021 11:30 pm

unome wrote:
Tue Jun 29, 2021 7:15 pm
jasons2k wrote:
Tue Jun 29, 2021 3:20 pm
Nightmare for a pool contractor. My hopes for having this done before Labor Day appear to be diminishing. Murphy’s Law at work I suppose.
First world problems, heh ?
Umm hmm

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.thegua ... o-everyone

869MB
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Re: June 2021:

Post by 869MB » Wed Jun 30, 2021 12:08 am

Image


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the
Windward Islands. This system is producing a large area of showers
and thunderstorms that continues to show some signs of organization.
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for development,
and a tropical depression is likely form during the next few days
while the system moves west-northwestward at about 20 mph.
Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should closely
monitor this system as it will likely be moving through that region
on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

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don
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Re: June 2021:

Post by don » Wed Jun 30, 2021 8:04 am

One thing to keep in mind, if a cutoff low does form over the state, that could help to block whatever comes of 97L from Texas if it were to make it into the gulf.Depending on the position and strength of the low.But still a long ways out so alot is likely to change over the next week.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...

Latest model runs continue to show a wet and rainy holiday
weekend. A deepening mid-level trough over the Great Lakes will
push a cold front through Texas on Friday. This front will reach
the Texas coast by Friday afternoon where it stall and meander
across our CWA over the weekend and into next week. Scattered to
numerous showers are possible along this frontal boundary through
the weekend at any given time, but activity will peak in the
afternoon and early evening each day.

Ingredients are also coming together for potential heavy rainfall
this weekend as well. Early Saturday morning, the GFS and ECMWF
are showing an inverted trough pushing its way into the Gulf from
the Yucatan Peninsula and supplying Southeast Texas with ample
PWATS of 2.2 to 2.4 inches. Forecast soundings show long, skinny
CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, so convective growth will be slow and
gradual with long-living showers and storms. Persistent diffluence
aloft will also aid in low-level convergence for convection.
Storm motion appears to be relatively low, so any showers/storms
producing heavy rainfall will be slow moving. Long story short,
plenty of moisture, slow growing storms, slow moving storms, and
persistent low-level convergence all point to heavy rainfall
potential this weekend.

This wet rainy pattern will continue through the work week as
well. Global models are messy regarding the stalled frontal
boundary, but its remnants still appear to be on the coast by
Monday. Meanwhile, an upper-level low will be vertically stacked
with a surface low over the High Plains of Texas on Monday. This
low will push southeast and reach our region by late Monday or
early Tuesday. Much of the same setup is in place regarding PWATS,
instability, and storm motion. This will only keep rain chances
going through mid-week next week with PoPs ranging from 50-80%.

On Friday, daytime highs will reach the lower 90s, but Saturday
onwards, daytime highs will only reach the upper 80s due to cloud
cover and rainfall. Overnight lows will muggy and in the mid-70s.

Stratton20
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Re: June 2021:

Post by Stratton20 » Wed Jun 30, 2021 8:27 am

Even if 97L doesnt effect us I dont really think it matters that much really, a potential cut off low over texas definitely would create some big problems

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DoctorMu
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Re: June 2021:

Post by DoctorMu » Wed Jun 30, 2021 9:14 am

unome wrote:
Tue Jun 29, 2021 7:15 pm
jasons2k wrote:
Tue Jun 29, 2021 3:20 pm
Nightmare for a pool contractor. My hopes for having this done before Labor Day appear to be diminishing. Murphy’s Law at work I suppose.
First world problems, heh ?
Perfect for ice skating next February! :lol:

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jasons2k
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Re: June 2021:

Post by jasons2k » Wed Jun 30, 2021 10:00 am

It’s looking like the 4th Fireworks may actually be rained-out this year. I don’t recall this happening as long as I’ve lived here. Of course it’s the year we are (trying to) build a pool. :x

Got a note from them today the dig is on-hold until the 7-day forecast looks better.

Stratton20
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Re: June 2021:

Post by Stratton20 » Wed Jun 30, 2021 10:04 am

In still shooting fireworks even if its raining, gotta take a bit of risk sometimes🙂🙂

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