June 2021:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Dls2010r
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Re: June 2021:

Post by Dls2010r » Wed Jun 30, 2021 7:45 pm

Yep I agree. I was at Disney and Ike was suppose to go up the Florida peninsula. I got home a day later and here the monster comes. I don’t trust any of the storms.

cperk
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Re: June 2021:

Post by cperk » Thu Jul 01, 2021 5:08 am

Dls2010r wrote:
Wed Jun 30, 2021 7:45 pm
Yep I agree. I was at Disney and Ike was suppose to go up the Florida peninsula. I got home a day later and here the monster comes. I don’t trust any of the storms.
You are right but it ended up getting trapped under a rebuilding ridge and we know the rest of the story.

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jasons2k
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Re: June 2021:

Post by jasons2k » Thu Jul 01, 2021 6:27 am

cperk wrote:
Thu Jul 01, 2021 5:08 am
Dls2010r wrote:
Wed Jun 30, 2021 7:45 pm
Yep I agree. I was at Disney and Ike was suppose to go up the Florida peninsula. I got home a day later and here the monster comes. I don’t trust any of the storms.
You are right but it ended up getting trapped under a rebuilding ridge and we know the rest of the story.
Euro had seen early it but most were just in disbelief because there was no historical precedent for that before.

We’ve seen a lot of “firsts” and “1,000 year events” since we moved here in 2005. Too many to count. Extremes seem to be commonplace now. Nothing surprises me anymore…

Dls2010r
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Re: June 2021:

Post by Dls2010r » Thu Jul 01, 2021 6:56 am

I just remember Dr. Neil Frank saying during Ike never trust a storm and he was right. Sure do miss his knowledge.

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tireman4
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Re: June 2021:

Post by tireman4 » Tue Jul 27, 2021 10:24 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 271157
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
657 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

A cluster of thunderstorms could move in the vicinity of KGLS
in the next few hours; however, trends look to keep these storms
offshore. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected late this afternoon with better chances in terminals
along I-45. Gusty/erratic winds of 20-30 knots will be possible
with any storms. Light southwest winds this morning will shift to
the south this afternoon with speeds 5-10 knots. Expect light and
variable winds late this evening into the overnight hours. VFR
conditions are expected through the period. 05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 401 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021/...





.SHORT TERM [through Wednesday Night]...

Hot weather, increased cloud cover and thunderstorm chances are the
main weather stories today. The region is positioned between an
upper level ridge centered over the Rockies and an upper-level low
over the Deep South Texas/northeastern Mexico. The influence of the
ridge aloft becomes weaker, resulting in a more dominant easterly
flow over the region. This flow pattern aloft will result in
different energy impulses riding over the region today and
Wednesday.

As of 3AM this morning, an area of showers and thunderstorms
associated with a weak sfc trough over the Louisiana area will
continue to move westward into the Upper Texas coast this morning.
Expect these showers/storms to weaken as they reach our coastal
zones this morning. Best chances for isolated to scattered showers
and storms are expected later today. While we remain slightly capped
through most of the day, the atmosphere will become less stable as
moisture increases (PWs around 2.0 inches) with moderate instability
at low to mid-levels and convective temperatures in the low 90s.
This activity is expected to develop along and east of I-45, with
better chances in the afternoon and evening. Another hot day is
expected, though cloud cover should result in some cooling. Highs
are expected to reach the low to mid 90s.

Rain and storm chances continue Tuesday night into Wednesday as
another vort max/disturbance moves over the region. These
showers/storms could be enhanced by the interaction of
seabreezes/outflow boundaries. Have continued with 20-40 percent
chance over most of the CWA. 05


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...

With a persistent central U.S. mid/upper level ridge, will continue
to carry mainly diurnal rain chances each day as enough weakness along
the ridge`s southern fringes traverse the area and precipitable water
values remain elevated. A slight strengthening of the ridge over the
weekend could end up bringing a decrease in area rain chances. The ridge
looks to reposition itself to the west toward the end of the weekend
and into the start of next week, and this pattern change could eventually
allow for a southward sagging cold front to get close enough to bring
rising rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures to parts of the
area.

The main weather feature will continue to be elevated heat index values
that outside of rain areas could occasionally approach a 105-110 range.
All heat safety precautions should continue to be taken. 42


.MARINE...

Light to occasionally moderate winds the first half along with
smooth to slightly choppy bay waters and 1 to 3 foot seas can be
expected for the remainder of the week and on into the weekend.
Mainly low rain chances will be in the forecast. 42


.CLIMATE...

Houston Hobby Airport tied their record high minimum temperature
yesterday when the low only dropped to 79 degrees. The old record
of 79 was last set in 2020. So far this month, the average low
temperature of 77.7 degrees ranks as Hobby`s 5th warmest July 1-26
on record (dating back to 1931). In first place is 79.1 degrees
set in 2020, and in fact all of the ten warmest July 1-26 records
have occurred since 2010. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 96 76 95 75 96 / 20 20 40 10 20
Houston (IAH) 96 77 96 77 96 / 30 30 40 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 91 81 91 82 91 / 20 20 20 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

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