June 2021:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
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CPV17 yeah im not 100% buying it yet but it definitely is a signal, hope this holds off until after the 4th though:(
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DoctorMu
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don wrote: Tue Jun 29, 2021 2:26 pm Yep the Euro has been showing a cut off low forming over the state for the last several runs.Showing more of a Spring like pattern than Summer.
That's crazy for July.
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jasons2k
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Nightmare for a pool contractor. My hopes for having this done before Labor Day appear to be diminishing. Murphy’s Law at work I suppose.
Kingwood36
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Just cloudy here no rain all day...
Cromagnum
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Got all of our rain out the way yesterday (for now anyways). Goose egg at the house today.
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DoctorMu
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Kingwood36 wrote: Tue Jun 29, 2021 4:22 pm Just cloudy here no rain all day...
Same here. I'll take it. We were surrounded by rain for awhile.
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DoctorMu
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
404 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021


.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Tomorrow/Wednesday Night]...

Showers and thunderstorms that developed along the coast this morn-
ing have spread inland through the day. 12Z soundings did indicate
PWs around 2.1-2.2" across the CWA and this helped to fuel the mod-
erate to heavy rains that developed. Still expecting precipitation
to taper off quickly this evening with the loss of heating...but we
are seeing a couple of the shorter-range models trying to keep the
POPs in place over the coastal counties well into the late evening
hours (HRRR in particular). Otherwise, quieter conditions will pre-
vail overnight. A mid-level ridge that is progged to build in from
the NE could help to limit POPs a bit by tomorrow (afternoon). But
did opt to err on the side of wet until more evidence of this high
is available. And so based on the higher POPs/clouds, did keep max
temperatures tomorrow near 90. 41



.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...
Thursday morning weak upper ridging over NCTX will be slowly
weakening and drifting very slowly west and southwest while the
low levels remain moist with onshore flow into Friday. This should
lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly following a
diurnal pattern. Thursday night into Friday with an area of
disturbed weather moving into the SE Gulf and bringing an increase
in low level moisture for the weekend and upper weakness over
OK/AR/E TX opening the door to a weak cold front Friday wobbling
south into the area. Scattered to possibly numerous storms along
the frontal boundary.
..timing may change but at this point it
looks to arrive into the northeastern counties in the late
afternoon/evening. NW flow events can be a real challenge in the
summertime as to how aggressive to go with POPs.
For now will cap
them at around 70-80 percent but some areas could see much higher
as the frontal boundary continues to sag south Friday night and
Saturday. The potential for locally heavy rainfall increases with
PW of 2.2 to 2.4" pooled along the boundary and enough instability
to fuel storms overnight into the 4th of July holiday. High rain
chances will continue Sunday the 4th as the front stalls then
probably starts to wobble back north with weak disturbances still
meandering about over the region.
The typical diurnal pattern
probably won`t apply given the frontal boundary and abundant
moisture/instability so storms go well into the late evening
festivities. Monday and Tuesday a weakness in the upper heights
develops and drifts overhead or just south of the CWA and so SETX
should remain in a very wet pattern.
Temperatures Saturday through
Tuesday should be moderated by cloud cover/rain for the area and
slightly drier spreading into the northern CWA in the wake of the
front too.
45

&&

.MARINE...
Relatively quiet with south and southeasterly flow of around 10 to
10-15 knots with seas of 3-5 feet through the weekend. Tides
remain elevated through the weekend and will probably be
contending with elevated tides and moderate to strong rip
currents. Seas should begin to build Monday into Tuesday as fetch
gets longer.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 74 90 73 91 74 / 30 40 20 20 10
Houston (IAH) 75 90 74 91 76 / 40 60 20 30 10
Galveston (GLS) 80 89 80 87 80 / 50 50 20 30 10
Cpv17
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Fwiw the 18z GFS has slightly trended towards the 12z Euro.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 yeah the GFS has trended a little wetter this evening
Scott747
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NHC has become a little more bullish on 97l developing. Setup still looks like a potential cruiser to me if it stays low enough.
unome
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jasons2k wrote: Tue Jun 29, 2021 4:20 pm Nightmare for a pool contractor. My hopes for having this done before Labor Day appear to be diminishing. Murphy’s Law at work I suppose.
First world problems, heh ?
Cpv17
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Looks like 97L has a shot at being classified as early as tomorrow at the rate it’s consolidating.
Stratton20
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CPV17 yep I suspect it will at least become a depression by tommorow, looks very healthy on satillite imagery ,
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jasons2k
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unome wrote: Tue Jun 29, 2021 8:15 pm
jasons2k wrote: Tue Jun 29, 2021 4:20 pm Nightmare for a pool contractor. My hopes for having this done before Labor Day appear to be diminishing. Murphy’s Law at work I suppose.
First world problems, heh ?
Umm hmm

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.thegua ... o-everyone
869MB
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Image


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the
Windward Islands. This system is producing a large area of showers
and thunderstorms that continues to show some signs of organization.
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for development,
and a tropical depression is likely form during the next few days
while the system moves west-northwestward at about 20 mph.
Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should closely
monitor this system as it will likely be moving through that region
on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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don
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One thing to keep in mind, if a cutoff low does form over the state, that could help to block whatever comes of 97L from Texas if it were to make it into the gulf.Depending on the position and strength of the low.But still a long ways out so alot is likely to change over the next week.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...

Latest model runs continue to show a wet and rainy holiday
weekend. A deepening mid-level trough over the Great Lakes will
push a cold front through Texas on Friday. This front will reach
the Texas coast by Friday afternoon where it stall and meander
across our CWA over the weekend and into next week. Scattered to
numerous showers are possible along this frontal boundary through
the weekend at any given time, but activity will peak in the
afternoon and early evening each day.

Ingredients are also coming together for potential heavy rainfall
this weekend as well. Early Saturday morning, the GFS and ECMWF
are showing an inverted trough pushing its way into the Gulf from
the Yucatan Peninsula and supplying Southeast Texas with ample
PWATS of 2.2 to 2.4 inches. Forecast soundings show long, skinny
CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, so convective growth will be slow and
gradual with long-living showers and storms. Persistent diffluence
aloft will also aid in low-level convergence for convection.
Storm motion appears to be relatively low, so any showers/storms
producing heavy rainfall will be slow moving. Long story short,
plenty of moisture, slow growing storms, slow moving storms, and
persistent low-level convergence all point to heavy rainfall
potential this weekend.

This wet rainy pattern will continue through the work week as
well. Global models are messy regarding the stalled frontal
boundary, but its remnants still appear to be on the coast by
Monday. Meanwhile, an upper-level low will be vertically stacked
with a surface low over the High Plains of Texas on Monday. This
low will push southeast and reach our region by late Monday or
early Tuesday. Much of the same setup is in place regarding PWATS,
instability, and storm motion. This will only keep rain chances
going through mid-week next week with PoPs ranging from 50-80%.

On Friday, daytime highs will reach the lower 90s, but Saturday
onwards, daytime highs will only reach the upper 80s due to cloud
cover and rainfall. Overnight lows will muggy and in the mid-70s.
Stratton20
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Even if 97L doesnt effect us I dont really think it matters that much really, a potential cut off low over texas definitely would create some big problems
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DoctorMu
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unome wrote: Tue Jun 29, 2021 8:15 pm
jasons2k wrote: Tue Jun 29, 2021 4:20 pm Nightmare for a pool contractor. My hopes for having this done before Labor Day appear to be diminishing. Murphy’s Law at work I suppose.
First world problems, heh ?
Perfect for ice skating next February! :lol:
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jasons2k
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It’s looking like the 4th Fireworks may actually be rained-out this year. I don’t recall this happening as long as I’ve lived here. Of course it’s the year we are (trying to) build a pool. :x

Got a note from them today the dig is on-hold until the 7-day forecast looks better.
Stratton20
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In still shooting fireworks even if its raining, gotta take a bit of risk sometimes🙂🙂
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