June 2021:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Cpv17
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DoctorMu wrote: Mon May 31, 2021 10:35 pm The storms near Del Rio could be heading toward the Houston area.
The HRR has them fizzling out before the reach Houston.
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GBinGrimes
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Location: Anderson, TX
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Getting blasted in Grimes County. Heavy, heavy downpour for at least the past hour when the 1st overhead thunderclap bounced me off the ceiling.
Kingwood36
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Is the rain pretty much done for today?
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don
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p1xz68i.gif
A flash flood watch may be needed tomorrow.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
546 AM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021

.SHORT TERM [Today through Wednesday Night]...
Heavy rainfall overnight from Caldwell to College Station to
Crocket/Grapeland. Very heavy rainfall over Houston county with
rainfall estimates over 10" just east of Grapeland including 1 high
water rescue.

Band of storms continues to move through the area and should
continue to do so and have trended the forecast towards this with
the storms pushing down into the coastal counties by 10 am.
Rainfall rates this morning of 2-3"/hour are going to be possible
where storms train. The line should move and could split but will
also probably leave a boundary near the coast for the afternoon
hours in which storms could develop upon. In addition the pesky
cold front is going to move into the northern CWA this afternoon
and will probably become a focus for some garden variety storms
driven primarily by daytime heating and fortunately should
dissipate with the loss of heating but the coastal storms may not.


A potent shortwave is headed towards the area Wednesday and will
bring back 1.8-2.0" PW/a right rear quad up the upper jet and likely
a wave on the stationary front as a focus for more organized
rainfall. It may not arrive until the the late morning or more
likely afternoon/evening. After all of the rain recently and then
todays rains thinking that a Flash Flood watch will probably be in
the works for Wednesday as we head into the upcoming wet
period...see below.

Temperatures will be somewhat moderated by the expansive cloud cover
and rainfall the couple of days.

&&
.LONG TERM [Thursday through Tuesday]...

With the prevailing upper-level trough/low remaining to our
southwest, the period of unsettled weather will continue through the
end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. As the trough axis
ejects eastward and advances towards SE TX during the day on
Thursday, the synoptic pattern will become more favorable for the
development of locally heavy rainfall. At the surface, persistent
onshore flow will continue to make moisture plentifully available,
with global models indicating total PWs in the 1.75 to 2.0 in
range. The propagation of the upper low into Western TX by late
Thursday will place SE TX within the left rear quadrant of an
associated jet streak, which will enhance upper-level divergence.
As a series of shortwave troughs traverse the region beginning on
Thursday and persisting through the weekend, shower and
thunderstorm development will remain likely each day. Of the
latest deterministic solutions, the ECMWF remains the most
aggressive in its depiction of heavy rainfall on Saturday and
Sunday where jet dynamics/moisture availability look to be most
favorable. While the GFS is more bearish, its latest solution
nonetheless shows the entirety of SE TX receiving several inches
of rainfall.

WPC 7-Day QPF forecast amounts for SE TX remain in the 4-5" range.
Of course, these forecast values indicate areal average totals and
the occurrence of locally higher amounts is a distinct
possibility. As we draw closer to the weekend, the potential for
flooding will need to be monitored closely. Those planning any
travel/outdoor activities should continue to stay up to date with
the latest forecast information.

Generally overcast/broken cloud decks and precipitation should keep
daytime highs slightly below normal through the remainder of the
week and into the weekend, with forecast temperatures expected to
stay confined to the lower to mid 80s (normals for early June are 90
at IAH, 90 at CLL, and 87 at GLS). Overnight lows will remain near
normal, in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Early indications are that the wet period may continue into next
week with the approach of another upper trough axis to our northwest
and continued onshore flow at the surface supplying widespread
moisture.
unome
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https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1200 PM EDT Tue Jun 01 2021

Day 1
Valid 16Z Tue Jun 01 2021 - 12Z Wed Jun 02 2021

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN LOUISIANA, ACROSS ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI...

...Southern Missouri into Arkansas, northern to Central
Louisiana...
1600 UTC Update -- Minor adjustments were made to the Slight Risk
area, mainly to include a bit more real estate across eastern TX
and the Upper TX coast, based on the latest observational
(convective) trends and 12Z high-res CAMs, including the HREF
exceedance probabilities.

0800 UTC Discussion...

A MCV will continue to press eastward out of Oklahoma and across
northern Arkansas/southern Missouri Tuesday and toward the Lower
Ohio Valley by early Wednesday. Model consensus is for an axis of
heavy rains and isolated excessive rainfall amounts in the axis of
above average PW values stretching from southern Missouri, through
much of Arkansas into northern to central Louisiana to the east
and southeast of this MCV. The best instability will be to the
south of the MCV, across much of Arkansas into Louisiana. The
slight risk was extended farther to the south from the previous
issuance into northern and central Louisiana given this. This is
supported by the latest HREF neighborhood probabilities that are
high (50-90%+) for 2"+ amounts into northern to central Louisiana
and 30-60%+ for 3"+ amounts this period. On the hourly time
scale, the greater probabilities for 1 and 2"/hr amounts are from
central AR into northern to central Louisiana given the location
of the better instability. We were tempted to trim the northern
portion of the slight risk area, but given the model consensus for
heavy amounts farther to the north and current watches, we did
not. Models do have a heavy bias closer to the MCV track, with
the heavier totals often farther south into the better
instability. The marginal risk was also expanded farther eastward
into the Middle Tennessee Valley and central Gulf coast to cover
model spread with heavy rains across these areas.

...South Texas, northwestward into West Texas and eastern New
Mexico...
The previous marginal risk area over portions of central Texas was
expanded into West Texas and eastern New Mexico and pushed
southward into South Texas. The extension of the marginal risk
into South Texas was to cover current convection pressing
southeastward through the Lower Rio Grande Valley. This activity
may affect South Texas for the first few hours of the day 1 period
after 1200 UTC Tuesday. Across West Texas into eastern New
Mexico, additional scattered convection likely to fire this
afternoon from southeast Colorado into eastern New Mexico and West
Texas. With recent rains across these areas, FFG values have
lowered. While confidence is low with respect to details, there
is a model signal for locally heavy rains. HREF neighborhood
probabilities are greatest across West Texas, with 40-60%
probabilities of 1"+ totals this period, with lower probabilities
westward into eastern New Mexico.

Hurley/Oravec


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt


Image
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jasons2k
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A true legend has passed. I grew-up watching Roy.

He had AMS Seal #10.

https://www.fox13news.com/news/roy-leep ... asses-away
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DoctorMu
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The high was 10°F below normal. Nice northerly breeze. Partly cloudy. No rain.
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unome
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https://twitter.com/NWSCPC/status/1399806269599281153
Moderate confidence exists for tropical cyclones to form over both the Western Caribbean and East Pacific during June 9th through 15th.

Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook Discussion
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... /index.php
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DoctorMu
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Location: College Station
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unome wrote: Tue Jun 01, 2021 7:48 pm https://twitter.com/NWSCPC/status/1399806269599281153
Moderate confidence exists for tropical cyclones to form over both the Western Caribbean and East Pacific during June 9th through 15th.

Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook Discussion
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... /index.php
West Caribbean gyre
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jasons2k
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I'd be OK with the occasional sea breeze shower to keep things green, but this is ridiculous. It should be transitioning to the meteorological summer right now, but instead, we are stuck in this late-spring muck for awhile it looks like.

At least my pool outline is painted on the grass now. Progress. But it's still just in my imagination until they can get that hole dug!
Stratton20
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00z EURO around days 9-10 is hinting at the formation of a tropical system in the western or Northwestern Caribbean, something to monitor as the week goes by
Cromagnum
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When is go time for the next heavy rain event to begin? This evening?
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don
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Location: Heights
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
437 AM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021


.SHORT TERM [Today Through Thursday Night]...
Light winds this morning over the area with a diffuse cold front
that has crept down through Conroe and Caldwell. Patchy fog near
Conroe/Caldwell/Cleveland will be short lived as the sun comes up.
Temperatures rise quickly this morning and should climb into the
mid 80s and with that scattered storms should develop along and
south of the frontal boundary this afternoon. Slow moving storms
could bring a quick inch of rainfall. A s/w dropping southeast
should approach the region with active convection associated with
it to the west late in the afternoon and evening. The most likely
scenario is that the large cluster of storms stays to the west of
the region but a few models indicate it could expand into the
southwest and western areas tonight. Have trended up on rain
chances there - but not going in whole hog yet. Thursday the
upper jet becomes more favorably aligned as the upper trough
moves northeast and the influence of the upper low near Baja
swings up the subtropical jet. Soundings indicate the end of the
cap with enough moisture but the frontal boundary will be lifting
north so scattered showers and thunderstorms in the morning could
easily become more numerous in the afternoon with heating
potentially shifting the coverage northward and possibly tapering
down near the coast. Wind profiles indicate that in general storms
should be northward morning at 10-15 knots which should give the
area a good soaking (not that it needs it)...yes some heavy
downpours but probably more in the nuisance/isolated street
flooding range. A more potent s/w moving through Mexico Thursday
night could begin to bring in showers toward sunrise as the
subtropical jet strengthens. 45

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...
The upcoming weekend remains in focus as potentially the most
impactful portion of the upcoming extended stretch of unsettled
weather across SE TX. By early Friday, the prevailing upper trough
axis will continue to drift eastward, along with an associated
jet streak to its south. Global models continue to place SE TX
within the left rear quadrant of this jet streak, which will
provide favorable upper-level divergence necessary to sustain
heavy rainfall. Surface flow will remain out of the south to
southeast as surface high pressure remains situated over the
southeastern CONUS while pressures deepen over Western TX. This
persistent flow pattern will provide the region with ample low
level moisture, with total PWs nearing 2.0 in by Friday and
potentially exceeding it on Saturday. As a series of shortwaves
round the prevailing midlevel trough axis, there will be multiple
rounds of showers and storms through the duration of the weekend
and likely into early next week. Based on the current expected
synoptic pattern reflected by the latest round of deterministic
global model solutions, the potential for heaviest rainfall looks
to be in the late Saturday-early Sunday time frame. Those with
travel or event plans this weekend should continue to monitor the
forecast closely.

WPC continues to forecast 3-5" of total rainfall over SE TX over the
next 7 days, with the bulk of this precipitation occuring between
Saturday morning and Monday morning. As I discussed yesterday, these
values represent areal averages and locally higher totals driven by
individual strong storms that develop over the course of this event
are certainly possible. Flash Flood Watches may be required in the
coming days as the forecast continues to be refined.


As the upper trough axis continues to slowly jog eastward heading
into the early part of next week, jet dynamics become less favorable
for heavy rainfall. That being said, continued onshore winds and the
propagation of additional midlevel shortwaves across SE TX will
continue to prove favorable for the development of showers and
storms with locally heavy rainfall remaining a concern. By the end
of next week, indications are that upper ridging will build into the
central CONUS and the rainy pattern may finally come to an end.

Not much change to the temperature forecast tonight with below-
normal daytime highs still expected, aided by persistent cloud cover
and periods of rainfall. Most locations remain confined to the low-
mid 80s into the early part of next week. Lows will remain closer to
normal as broken to overcast decks inhibit radiative cooling, with
values staying in the upper 60s/low 70s inland and in the mid 70s
along the coast.
Cpv17
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Location: El Campo/Wharton
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The 0z Euro came in with its most wet run yet showing 6 to 13” across southeast TX.
Cpv17
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Location: El Campo/Wharton
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Cromagnum wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 7:21 am When is go time for the next heavy rain event to begin? This evening?
I actually don’t think it’ll be too much rain today besides a few heat driven scattered showers.
Cpv17
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Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
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I think the best opportunity for rain today will be from about 2pm-7pm. Some areas could pick up a quick inch if you get caught in one of the heavier showers.
Cpv17
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Location: El Campo/Wharton
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don wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 7:55 am Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
437 AM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021


.SHORT TERM [Today Through Thursday Night]...
Light winds this morning over the area with a diffuse cold front
that has crept down through Conroe and Caldwell. Patchy fog near
Conroe/Caldwell/Cleveland will be short lived as the sun comes up.
Temperatures rise quickly this morning and should climb into the
mid 80s and with that scattered storms should develop along and
south of the frontal boundary this afternoon. Slow moving storms
could bring a quick inch of rainfall. A s/w dropping southeast
should approach the region with active convection associated with
it to the west late in the afternoon and evening. The most likely
scenario is that the large cluster of storms stays to the west of
the region but a few models indicate it could expand into the
southwest and western areas tonight. Have trended up on rain
chances there - but not going in whole hog yet. Thursday the
upper jet becomes more favorably aligned as the upper trough
moves northeast and the influence of the upper low near Baja
swings up the subtropical jet. Soundings indicate the end of the
cap with enough moisture but the frontal boundary will be lifting
north so scattered showers and thunderstorms in the morning could
easily become more numerous in the afternoon with heating
potentially shifting the coverage northward and possibly tapering
down near the coast. Wind profiles indicate that in general storms
should be northward morning at 10-15 knots which should give the
area a good soaking (not that it needs it)...yes some heavy
downpours but probably more in the nuisance/isolated street
flooding range. A more potent s/w moving through Mexico Thursday
night could begin to bring in showers toward sunrise as the
subtropical jet strengthens. 45

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...
The upcoming weekend remains in focus as potentially the most
impactful portion of the upcoming extended stretch of unsettled
weather across SE TX. By early Friday, the prevailing upper trough
axis will continue to drift eastward, along with an associated
jet streak to its south. Global models continue to place SE TX
within the left rear quadrant of this jet streak, which will
provide favorable upper-level divergence necessary to sustain
heavy rainfall. Surface flow will remain out of the south to
southeast as surface high pressure remains situated over the
southeastern CONUS while pressures deepen over Western TX. This
persistent flow pattern will provide the region with ample low
level moisture, with total PWs nearing 2.0 in by Friday and
potentially exceeding it on Saturday. As a series of shortwaves
round the prevailing midlevel trough axis, there will be multiple
rounds of showers and storms through the duration of the weekend
and likely into early next week. Based on the current expected
synoptic pattern reflected by the latest round of deterministic
global model solutions, the potential for heaviest rainfall looks
to be in the late Saturday-early Sunday time frame. Those with
travel or event plans this weekend should continue to monitor the
forecast closely.

WPC continues to forecast 3-5" of total rainfall over SE TX over the
next 7 days, with the bulk of this precipitation occuring between
Saturday morning and Monday morning. As I discussed yesterday, these
values represent areal averages and locally higher totals driven by
individual strong storms that develop over the course of this event
are certainly possible. Flash Flood Watches may be required in the
coming days as the forecast continues to be refined.


As the upper trough axis continues to slowly jog eastward heading
into the early part of next week, jet dynamics become less favorable
for heavy rainfall. That being said, continued onshore winds and the
propagation of additional midlevel shortwaves across SE TX will
continue to prove favorable for the development of showers and
storms with locally heavy rainfall remaining a concern. By the end
of next week, indications are that upper ridging will build into the
central CONUS and the rainy pattern may finally come to an end.

Not much change to the temperature forecast tonight with below-
normal daytime highs still expected, aided by persistent cloud cover
and periods of rainfall. Most locations remain confined to the low-
mid 80s into the early part of next week. Lows will remain closer to
normal as broken to overcast decks inhibit radiative cooling, with
values staying in the upper 60s/low 70s inland and in the mid 70s
along the coast.
Actually the WPC is predicting 5-7” with isolated totals of 7-10”.
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DoctorMu
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Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
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Will bear the mosquitos...no way am I complaining about rain this time of year in this area of Texas and tempting the Death Ridge gods! :lol:
TexasBreeze
Posts: 942
Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:46 pm
Location: NW Houston, TX
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The Ecmwf sure is cranking out the rain totals lately for the whole area.
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MontgomeryCoWx
Posts: 2356
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
Location: Weimar, TX
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No complaints from my end. 80 and off and on rain in June sure as hell beats 90s and muggy with no rain in sight.
Team #NeverSummer
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