June 2021:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
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00z Intensity Guidance on tropical tidbits gets really interesting
Harveyvsallison
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Jun 12, 2021 8:41 pm 00z Intensity Guidance on tropical tidbits gets really interesting
I was just about to mention those ! Also the HWRF and HMON hurricane models both develop 92L into a tropical storm within 24 hours !
Stratton20
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Harveyvsallison we will have to see what happens but considering what im seeing from intensity guidance, we definitely gotta be on the look out for what happens in the next 3 days
Harveyvsallison
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Jun 12, 2021 9:24 pm Harveyvsallison we will have to see what happens but considering what im seeing from intensity guidance, we definitely gotta be on the look out for what happens in the next 3 days
Also I’m thinking if this gets its act together quickly it’ll be able to fend off dry air better later down the road. Just keep watching intensity models and satellite
Stratton20
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Harveyvsallison definitely agree about that , tonights GFS, CMC, ICON and Euro runs are going to be interesting to see what they day
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don
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0Z Intensity models.
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92L_intensity2_latest.png
Harveyvsallison
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Jun 12, 2021 9:33 pm Harveyvsallison definitely agree about that , tonights GFS, CMC, ICON and Euro runs are going to be interesting to see what they day
Yes I will be staying up for the 00Z suites ! I’m interested in the next batch of euro ensembles !!!! Watch the ensembles
Harveyvsallison
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Things will be really interesting come Wednesday
Stratton20
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Harveyvsallison I definitely am staying up as well😂 I usually got to bed around 2 am so just after the Euro model comes out
TexasMetBlake
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With the SAL layer moving in, wind shear AND the fact that the circulation is so broad, I find it hard to believe this would become much more than a low grade tropical storm--at least the way it looks to me now. If this is a shrimpy system then landfall will be irrelevant with as most of the rain will be east of the center.
Stratton20
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Your absolutely right blake, most likely this will stay a weak to moderate system, but then again stranger things have happened in the gulf in years past, definitely bears watching
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Texaspirate11
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KHOU BLake wrote: Sat Jun 12, 2021 9:59 pm With the SAL layer moving in, wind shear AND the fact that the circulation is so broad, I find it hard to believe this would become much more than a low grade tropical storm--at least the way it looks to me now. If this is a shrimpy system then landfall will be irrelevant with as most of the rain will be east of the center.
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Harveyvsallison
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It’s still early !!!! Models will shift
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DoctorMu
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Harveyvsallison wrote: Sat Jun 12, 2021 10:21 pm It’s still early !!!! Models will shift
Just how many kats with the same i.p. address are there? :lol:
davidiowx
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DoctorMu wrote: Sat Jun 12, 2021 10:34 pm
Harveyvsallison wrote: Sat Jun 12, 2021 10:21 pm It’s still early !!!! Models will shift
Just how many kats with the same i.p. address are there? :lol:
Lmao! It doesn’t even need that truth to tell it’s the same person.. oh the humanity
Stratton20
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00z ICON has trended further west, has a tropical storm just off the Texas coast
Kingwood36
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Jun 12, 2021 11:13 pm 00z ICON has trended further west, has a tropical storm just off the Texas coast
Icon is trash not a good tropical model
Stratton20
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Kingwood36 I know its not good, but the trend today in the models has been further to the west, so we will see what the other modes show
Cpv17
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Kingwood36 wrote: Sat Jun 12, 2021 11:27 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Sat Jun 12, 2021 11:13 pm 00z ICON has trended further west, has a tropical storm just off the Texas coast
Icon is trash not a good tropical model
Ehhh it’s not one of the best models but it’s not the worst either.
Stormlover2020
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Gfs shifted way farther east
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