Wx Infinity Forums

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 10:11 pm

jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 8:01 pm Just checked the gauge - my high today was 97F. Definitely summer now.

I thought College Station was hot. We peaked at 94-95°F. What circle of hell do you live in?

IAH hit 95F. I’m usually a degree or two hotter in the summer (along with surrounding gauges I check) and I’m usually 1-2 degrees colder in the winter mornings. Seems about right since I’m a touch further away from salt water.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 7:34 pm Out of curiosity has their ever been a time when a model has picked up on a storm beyond 9-10 days and that storm actually happened or formed? That is something that has me curious if its happened before

Yes, and it happens more often than it use to. Due too the models being better at tropical genesis than they were 10+ years ago.Models now produce much less phantom canes than they use too also.

The only model that’s been somewhat consistent is the Euro with this system. All the other models are all over the place. No telling what’s going to happen.

Cpv17 yeah thats why my biggest attention is on the EURO, not saying it will be right, but it has been pretty consistent with developing the system, Im not even gonna bother looking at the GFS until we get some sort of agreement

00z Euro has a strong tropical storm heading North towards Houston or just east of houston

The latest Euro and GFS are in complete agreement right now on timing and track lol go figure! They both have a tropical storm hitting around the TX/LA border in 10 days.

0Z Euro

don wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 7:51 am0Z Euro

I SAID NOOOO TX/LA BORDER! Stop it! <wink wink>

One thing to remember this year we have airlines busy!! Last year we didn’t due to Covid so we couldn’t get as much data model wise, our commercial planes collect temps pressure dew points and it's all fed into the models, like mobile weather stations.

djmike wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 8:14 am

don wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 7:51 am0Z Euro

I SAID NOOOO TX/LA BORDER! Stop it! <wink wink>

Well, these model runs are happening because you’re an A&M fan.

Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 8:43 am

djmike wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 8:14 am

don wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 7:51 am0Z Euro

I SAID NOOOO TX/LA BORDER! Stop it! <wink wink>

Well, these model runs are happening because you’re an A&M fan.

Yeah, the models would mean 100°F and no rain in College Station. Again. I haven't used the sprinklers in quite awhile and would like to keep it that way.

12Z GFS shows the storm slowly moving north out of the BOC late next week. With landfall of a category 1 the following week around Baffin Bay FWIW.

Even though thats 12 days out, I think what’s happening here is that it seems that the models are saying that whatever forms in the BOC is going to be really moving slowly North or just meandering because of weak steering currents

The Canadian is faster than the GFS fwiw with a landfall in north Mexico over the weekend of next week.

Even a landfall in North Mexico would still bring us impacts , definitely something to watch, hope this system doesnt end up stall, but we shall see, definitely wouldnt be surpised by Saturday or Sunday if the NHC highlights the Southern Gulf

A kat-astrophe.

Again would not focus on the details....i would focus on the big picture development right now. So many things will change over the next 10 days

I think its important to focus on details as these model depictions can give us hints and clues as to what may happen next week( not saying these models will be right, but they definitely give us reason to watch them), I have moderate to high confidence that something will spin up in the BOC, after that well im not going to evem try to say where it will go, steering currents look to be pretty sporadic

Yep we shouldn't pay too much attention to details such as track and strength this far out,whats more important in this range is seeing consistency from run to run in regards to tc genesis. 12z EURO with a Depression or weak Tropical Storm meandering around the coast the end of next week.Until we at least have an invest expect big differences in regards to strength and track from run to run.Saying that it does seem at this time if something does develop in the gulf it will be in the western gulf and we need to keep a very close eye next week.

I know its definitely impossible to know the strength of this potential system, what am I growing somewhat concerned is the fact that the Euro is meandering this system off the Texas coast for a few days , definitely too early still, but thats not something you want to see a model showing