June 2021:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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As others have posted, it’s too early to focus on the details of any particular model run. A lot will change over the next week that just can’t be resolved by the models this far out.

I’d advise folks to pay attention to our Senior Members and Pro-Mets for reliable information 😉
Stratton20
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The 12z Euro has the tropical disturbance getting into the BOC by this sunday/ monday, thats sooner than the GFS or other models, thats something to watch and see if this occurs
Cpv17
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The EPS definitely looks concerning for the western Gulf.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 do you have a picture?
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:19 pm Cpv17 do you have a picture?
Yep:

Image
Stratton20
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Oh yeah that’s definitely concerning, next week is going to be interesting for sure, we got alot to watch
Scott747
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Actually, that's not 'concerning' considering there's 50 ensemble members....
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don
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Scott747 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:34 pm Actually, that's not 'concerning' considering there's 50 ensemble members....
To be fair that's still a decent amount of ensemble support,and operational support considering were still 7+ days out from possible tc genesis.
Cpv17
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For those that aren’t aware (and I wasn’t aware of this for the longest time) , the Euro model has 51 ensemble members that make up the EPS while the GFS model has 21 ensemble members that make up the GEFS. I’ve been following the weather closely for over 10 years now and I just recently learned that maybe 2 or 3 years ago. I feel like it’s good to educate everyone on that.
Scott747
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don wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:15 pm
Scott747 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:34 pm Actually, that's not 'concerning' considering there's 50 ensemble members....
To be fair that's still a decent amount of ensemble support,and operational support considering were still 7+ days out from possible tc genesis.
For a potential system? Somewhat, no disagreement there. But even then the ensembles are having issues with an eventual epac focus, a split or a BoC genesis. Standard op with these gyre systems.
Stratton20
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Well whatever happens regardless their is one thing that is pretty clear, if this does end up developing in the BOC it is going to be a western gulf threat, if that is Mexico, Louisiana or Texas , that still is to be determined
Scott747
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Cpv17 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:25 pm For those that aren’t aware (and I wasn’t aware of this for the longest time) , the Euro model has 51 ensemble members that make up the EPS while the GFS model has 21 ensemble members that make up the GEFS. I’ve been following the weather closely for over 10 years now and I just recently learned that maybe 2 or 3 years ago. I feel like it’s good to educate everyone on that.
The GFS now has 31 members after the recent upgrade (v.12.0) I've mentioned previously.
Cpv17
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Scott747 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:35 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:25 pm For those that aren’t aware (and I wasn’t aware of this for the longest time) , the Euro model has 51 ensemble members that make up the EPS while the GFS model has 21 ensemble members that make up the GEFS. I’ve been following the weather closely for over 10 years now and I just recently learned that maybe 2 or 3 years ago. I feel like it’s good to educate everyone on that.
The GFS now has 31 members after the recent upgrade (v.12.0) I've mentioned previously.
Sweet. That should help.
Scott747
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Cpv17 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:36 pm
Scott747 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:35 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:25 pm For those that aren’t aware (and I wasn’t aware of this for the longest time) , the Euro model has 51 ensemble members that make up the EPS while the GFS model has 21 ensemble members that make up the GEFS. I’ve been following the weather closely for over 10 years now and I just recently learned that maybe 2 or 3 years ago. I feel like it’s good to educate everyone on that.
The GFS now has 31 members after the recent upgrade (v.12.0) I've mentioned previously.
Sweet. That should help.
Yeah between the operational upgrade in March and the ensemble upgrade the change was significant and substantial. Testing showed a much better hit on genesis. So those first few potential storms are important.

One knock though between the two big guns is with the GFS running four times a day as opposed to two like the euro it has more opportunities to be 'wrong.' So far it's been inline with what the euro is showing outside of a few runs and even then it wasn't by much.
Stratton20
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18z GFS run has a weak tropical storm slowly heading north and then stalls it somewhere along the middle texas coast🤔🤔
Pas_Bon
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:53 pm 18z GFS run has a weak tropical storm slowly heading north and then stalls it somewhere along the middle texas coast🤔🤔
:(
No. No. No. No. No
Cpv17
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18z GFS is a typical June sloppy sheared ts with most of the convection well east of the center.
Stormlover2020
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Yeah no doubt I would agree with the western gulf
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sambucol
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When would there be landfall if it forms and heads to the middle to upper Texas coast.
Stratton20
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SamBucol If i had to take my best guess, sometime by next friday or ao
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