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Re: June 2021

Posted: Thu Jun 10, 2021 2:40 pm
by jasons2k
As others have posted, it’s too early to focus on the details of any particular model run. A lot will change over the next week that just can’t be resolved by the models this far out.

I’d advise folks to pay attention to our Senior Members and Pro-Mets for reliable information 😉

Re: June 2021

Posted: Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:16 pm
by Stratton20
The 12z Euro has the tropical disturbance getting into the BOC by this sunday/ monday, thats sooner than the GFS or other models, thats something to watch and see if this occurs

Re: June 2021

Posted: Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:16 pm
by Cpv17
The EPS definitely looks concerning for the western Gulf.

Re: June 2021

Posted: Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:19 pm
by Stratton20
Cpv17 do you have a picture?

Re: June 2021

Posted: Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:25 pm
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:19 pm Cpv17 do you have a picture?
Yep:

Image

Re: June 2021

Posted: Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:27 pm
by Stratton20
Oh yeah that’s definitely concerning, next week is going to be interesting for sure, we got alot to watch

Re: June 2021

Posted: Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:34 pm
by Scott747
Actually, that's not 'concerning' considering there's 50 ensemble members....

Re: June 2021

Posted: Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:15 pm
by don
Scott747 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:34 pm Actually, that's not 'concerning' considering there's 50 ensemble members....
To be fair that's still a decent amount of ensemble support,and operational support considering were still 7+ days out from possible tc genesis.

Re: June 2021

Posted: Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:25 pm
by Cpv17
For those that aren’t aware (and I wasn’t aware of this for the longest time) , the Euro model has 51 ensemble members that make up the EPS while the GFS model has 21 ensemble members that make up the GEFS. I’ve been following the weather closely for over 10 years now and I just recently learned that maybe 2 or 3 years ago. I feel like it’s good to educate everyone on that.

Re: June 2021

Posted: Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:26 pm
by Scott747
don wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:15 pm
Scott747 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:34 pm Actually, that's not 'concerning' considering there's 50 ensemble members....
To be fair that's still a decent amount of ensemble support,and operational support considering were still 7+ days out from possible tc genesis.
For a potential system? Somewhat, no disagreement there. But even then the ensembles are having issues with an eventual epac focus, a split or a BoC genesis. Standard op with these gyre systems.

Re: June 2021

Posted: Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:29 pm
by Stratton20
Well whatever happens regardless their is one thing that is pretty clear, if this does end up developing in the BOC it is going to be a western gulf threat, if that is Mexico, Louisiana or Texas , that still is to be determined

Re: June 2021

Posted: Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:35 pm
by Scott747
Cpv17 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:25 pm For those that aren’t aware (and I wasn’t aware of this for the longest time) , the Euro model has 51 ensemble members that make up the EPS while the GFS model has 21 ensemble members that make up the GEFS. I’ve been following the weather closely for over 10 years now and I just recently learned that maybe 2 or 3 years ago. I feel like it’s good to educate everyone on that.
The GFS now has 31 members after the recent upgrade (v.12.0) I've mentioned previously.

Re: June 2021

Posted: Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:36 pm
by Cpv17
Scott747 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:35 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:25 pm For those that aren’t aware (and I wasn’t aware of this for the longest time) , the Euro model has 51 ensemble members that make up the EPS while the GFS model has 21 ensemble members that make up the GEFS. I’ve been following the weather closely for over 10 years now and I just recently learned that maybe 2 or 3 years ago. I feel like it’s good to educate everyone on that.
The GFS now has 31 members after the recent upgrade (v.12.0) I've mentioned previously.
Sweet. That should help.

Re: June 2021

Posted: Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:48 pm
by Scott747
Cpv17 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:36 pm
Scott747 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:35 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:25 pm For those that aren’t aware (and I wasn’t aware of this for the longest time) , the Euro model has 51 ensemble members that make up the EPS while the GFS model has 21 ensemble members that make up the GEFS. I’ve been following the weather closely for over 10 years now and I just recently learned that maybe 2 or 3 years ago. I feel like it’s good to educate everyone on that.
The GFS now has 31 members after the recent upgrade (v.12.0) I've mentioned previously.
Sweet. That should help.
Yeah between the operational upgrade in March and the ensemble upgrade the change was significant and substantial. Testing showed a much better hit on genesis. So those first few potential storms are important.

One knock though between the two big guns is with the GFS running four times a day as opposed to two like the euro it has more opportunities to be 'wrong.' So far it's been inline with what the euro is showing outside of a few runs and even then it wasn't by much.

Re: June 2021

Posted: Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:53 pm
by Stratton20
18z GFS run has a weak tropical storm slowly heading north and then stalls it somewhere along the middle texas coast🤔🤔

Re: June 2021

Posted: Thu Jun 10, 2021 6:49 pm
by Pas_Bon
Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:53 pm 18z GFS run has a weak tropical storm slowly heading north and then stalls it somewhere along the middle texas coast🤔🤔
:(
No. No. No. No. No

Re: June 2021

Posted: Thu Jun 10, 2021 6:54 pm
by Cpv17
18z GFS is a typical June sloppy sheared ts with most of the convection well east of the center.

Re: June 2021

Posted: Thu Jun 10, 2021 7:23 pm
by Stormlover2020
Yeah no doubt I would agree with the western gulf

Re: June 2021

Posted: Thu Jun 10, 2021 7:37 pm
by sambucol
When would there be landfall if it forms and heads to the middle to upper Texas coast.

Re: June 2021

Posted: Thu Jun 10, 2021 7:39 pm
by Stratton20
SamBucol If i had to take my best guess, sometime by next friday or ao