June 2021:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:25 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:19 pm Cpv17 do you have a picture?
Yep:

Image
Ensembles are indeed just picking up something disorganized near the Texas gulf coast. That works for me. The grass is starting to dry out.
Stratton20
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When do yall think the NHC will come out with a highlighted area to watch in the BOC?, the EURO has the disturbance entering the gulf on sunday
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jasons2k
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 8:23 pm When do yall think the NHC will come out with a highlighted area to watch in the BOC?, the EURO has the disturbance entering the gulf on sunday
After a lot more model consistency than what we have been seeing, at least for a start.

It's still early in the season and shear might be an issue. That in itself will cause potential forecast headaches...
Stratton20
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00z GFS And CMC runs just got really really interesting
Scott747
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 8:23 pm When do yall think the NHC will come out with a highlighted area to watch in the BOC?, the EURO has the disturbance entering the gulf on sunday
The area that the Euro is depicting is already highlighted. ;)
Stratton20
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Ah That must be on the pacific side
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 12:47 am Ah That must be on the pacific side
Yep. It’s been highlighted there for awhile now. I was never concerned about the area the NHC had highlighted in the Caribbean. This possible system would be an EPAC crossover into the BOC.
Stratton20
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Ah i gotcha, well have you seen the latest CMC and GFS runs, both have a very similar scenario, we might be seeing signs that the models are starting to come into better agreement
Scott747
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 12:54 am
Stratton20 wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 12:47 am Ah That must be on the pacific side
Yep. It’s been highlighted there for awhile now. I was never concerned about the area the NHC had highlighted in the Caribbean. This possible system would be an EPAC crossover into the BOC.
The thing is that it's essentially the same system. The NHC never jumped the gun, they were just tracking and highlighting what was slowly happening in the Caribbean and continues to evolve.

It's a typical, slow crawling evolution of a CAG (Central American Gyre, or monsoonal low) that year after year can cause fits in forecasting and models.

Definitely a pita for any of us that follows these potential early systems.
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Morning update from Jeff:
Impressive heat ridge of high pressure is building over the SW US and will continue to build into the weekend and next week with heights of potentially 600dm located over portions of Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico. This ridge extends NE into the US central plains with SE TX on the east/southeast side of the heat dome. This high pressure ridge will influence our weather into the weekend, but then begins to retreat toward the W and NW by late in the weekend and early next week allowing disturbances to approach from the NE as early as Sunday afternoon with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms. Will have to keep an eye on this period as sometimes these “NE flow” event can produce some strong and severe thunderstorms over the region.

Gulf of Mexico Late Next Week:
There is and has been “lots” of talk about the potential for some sort of tropical system to form in the southern Gulf of Mexico late next week. Global model solutions continue with the 00Z runs to show surface low pressure forming in the southern Gulf of Mexico toward the middle to end of next week and then moving generally northward. This system appears to evolve from the current area of disturbed weather in the Eastern Pacific south of Mexico. While there is a lot to be worked out on the “when” and “where” and “how organized” there continues to be enough consistency in the guidance to signal that something may develop. Regardless of development a significant surge of tropical moisture looks at least possible toward the NW Gulf/Texas by the end of next week with at the very least an increase in rain chances. For now something to monitor in the coming days.

A good reminder we are in hurricane season and now is a good time to make sure your plans and kits are fully stocked and ready for any potential threats that we may face this season.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure is expected to form early next week over
the Bay of Campeche and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Subsequent
slow development of this system is possible as it drifts
northwestward to northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven
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Cpv17
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The EPS seems to have came in a bit more bullish overnight.
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don
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Yep they sure have,a decent increase in ensemble support in the 0z runs.
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DoctorMu
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The lemonade stand opens next week.
oleander
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jasons2k wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 2:40 pm As others have posted, it’s too early to focus on the details of any particular model run. A lot will change over the next week that just can’t be resolved by the models this far out.

I’d advise folks to pay attention to our Senior Members and Pro-Mets for reliable information 😉
Yes! I can't imagine the combined years of experience our members have. What an incredible resource!
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don
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This is what Wxman57 is thinking about the system from Storm2k.
I changed the thread title. I'm becoming confident in what will happen next week. Squalls will increase in the BoC by next Monday/Tuesday. All models are now in very good agreement on the timing of development and the track. Still some disagreement on the intensity, but shear will be a factor. A low center will develop Tue-Wed and track northward, generally toward the upper TX coast or the SW LA coast. The NHC will classify this low as a depression Thursday morning and likely a TS prior to its moving ashore Fri/Sat, once recon finds a small area of TS winds. It will be a sheared, weak TS with heavy rainfall being the primary threat to TX/LA.
Cpv17
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don wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 8:48 am This is what Wxman57 is thinking about the system from Storm2k.
I changed the thread title. I'm becoming confident in what will happen next week. Squalls will increase in the BoC by next Monday/Tuesday. All models are now in very good agreement on the timing of development and the track. Still some disagreement on the intensity, but shear will be a factor. A low center will develop Tue-Wed and track northward, generally toward the upper TX coast or the SW LA coast. The NHC will classify this low as a depression Thursday morning and likely a TS prior to its moving ashore Fri/Sat, once recon finds a small area of TS winds. It will be a sheared, weak TS with heavy rainfall being the primary threat to TX/LA.
If it’s sheared and goes towards the upper TX coast we probably won’t get much of anything around here and could help support drier and hotter conditions for much of Texas.
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don
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Not necessarily, as it would depend on just how sheared it is, as a sheared systems doesn't necessarily mean there wont be heavy convection near the center. It's the areas to the west of the center that would be high and dry though.And of course the center could be devoid of convection also, but again it would depend on the amount of shear in place.
Cpv17
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don wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 9:09 am Not necessarily, as it would depend on just how sheared it is, as a sheared systems doesn't necessarily mean there wont be heavy convection near the center. It's the areas to the west of the center that would be high and dry though.And of course the center could be devoid of convection also, but again it would depend on the amount of shear in place.
Yeah I’ve seen some systems in June have hardly any convection near the center. Like you said it depends how much shear there is. Sometimes in June shear can be pretty bad in the Gulf.
Kingwood36
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Wxmn57 is good..but alot of times he is wrong also...just saying..
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