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Ita pretty much impossible to say if this system will be sheared or not, we have seen quite a few times with systems overcoming shear and obviously the opposite as well.

Storms in Bay of Campeche seems to always have a Crazy nature to them

It’s still June so I’d bet on shear being a factor. There is a trough on the models that induce shear and send most of it towards the east. Pretty textbook for a June system.

Hope thats not the case, hope the shear isnt bad, I dont want to end up getting dry slotted, I want more rain haha, not saying I want this to become a powerful system as I dont, but I definitely would love another 3-5 inches in my backyard

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 11, 2021 10:44 am Hope thats not the case, hope the shear isnt bad, I dont want to end up getting dry slotted, I want more rain haha, not saying I want this to become a powerful system as I dont, but I definitely would love another 3-5 inches in my backyard

If you want some rain the best case scenario would be for this to come in around the middle to south TX coast with a track towards San Antonio.

CPv17 thats what I kinda hope will happen( not wanting anyone to get hit hard though) my backyard dries up extremely fast, and it would definitely be nice to gets some more rain, however since this is tropical moisture Im hoping that nothing excessive occurs but no promise on that, also get ready yall, all the fear mongering people are probably going crazy seeing that yellow hased area in the BOC

The 12z GFS sends the storm to the Alabama/Florida panhandle region.Because it consolidates the system further east over the Yucatan instead of over the BOC. Like i mentioned yesterday where the system forms will have big implications on where a landfall may occur.

Don I think the GFS is an outlier at the moment as its been really inconsistent, not buying its mode runs at all

The GFS is all over the place.

Cpv17 thats exactly why im not buying into the GFS, its been too inconsistent in its pst model runs, EURO has been very consistent as well as the CMC,

CMC shifts east as well.

Ugh, I really dont want to be on the hot dry side of this system I prefer rainy weather over this down right heat wave kind of weather, As someone who has lived in a desert( middle east) for 2 years and for my two years their it rained maybe 2 times with a consistent average high in the summer around 110 degrees, dry and hot weather is not fun at all

Usually in these CAG systems, there’s multiple vortices competing against each other. Whichever one wins out will have big implications on its destination. I believe don has stated this as well.

Cpv17 I understand that, I just hope we get some rain from this, it feels like a furnace outside

Still have plenty of time I promise it will keep going back and forth

I’m thinking we just need to hope for the afternoon pop ups after this high pressure retreats back westward.

At this point ill take any sort of rain I can get, hope we can get some pop up showers, Ive only been outside for 5 minutes abd im already sweating like no tommorow haha

Rip76 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 11, 2021 1:00 pm I’m thinking we just need to hope for the afternoon pop ups after this high pressure retreats back westward.

I agree. I’m not holding my breath for this system to give us any heat relief.

12z Euro has shifted east as well, great looks like we are going to get the awful dry and hot side of the system smh

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 11, 2021 2:00 pm 12z Euro has shifted east as well, great looks like we are going to get the awful dry and hot side of the system smh

Many more model runs to go.