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CMC shifts east as well.

Ugh, I really dont want to be on the hot dry side of this system I prefer rainy weather over this down right heat wave kind of weather, As someone who has lived in a desert( middle east) for 2 years and for my two years their it rained maybe 2 times with a consistent average high in the summer around 110 degrees, dry and hot weather is not fun at all

Usually in these CAG systems, there’s multiple vortices competing against each other. Whichever one wins out will have big implications on its destination. I believe don has stated this as well.

Cpv17 I understand that, I just hope we get some rain from this, it feels like a furnace outside

Still have plenty of time I promise it will keep going back and forth

I’m thinking we just need to hope for the afternoon pop ups after this high pressure retreats back westward.

At this point ill take any sort of rain I can get, hope we can get some pop up showers, Ive only been outside for 5 minutes abd im already sweating like no tommorow haha

Rip76 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 11, 2021 1:00 pm I’m thinking we just need to hope for the afternoon pop ups after this high pressure retreats back westward.

I agree. I’m not holding my breath for this system to give us any heat relief.

12z Euro has shifted east as well, great looks like we are going to get the awful dry and hot side of the system smh

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 11, 2021 2:00 pm 12z Euro has shifted east as well, great looks like we are going to get the awful dry and hot side of the system smh

Many more model runs to go.

Cpv17 fair enough I guess, majority of the 12z Euro ensemble members still show Texas in the cards

There isnt even a system to model off of yet...chilll...

Sorry for getting so wound up yall about something that hasnt even formed yet, Im getting so many questions from friends and family members about if this is going to effect texas or not, and these frequent Model changes are driving me nuts because I cant get them answers yet

Models will drive you crazy..they are a tool...not the end all be all. They are going to change 928,489 times before it focuses on a solution..relax and wait till it makes it in the gulf/boc or it will drive you crazy..you can't live and die by each model run

Won't know much till it forms and it is a week or so away! Someone here is really going to stress out if a real strong system takes aim here in peak season!!!

I 100% understand yall, its juat annoying that im getting so many questions from people and that I cant give them a good answer because the models keep changing the track of where this goes

That is all.

from https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussio ... isc=pmdepd

...In the
Gulf of Mexico, a disturbance may form near the Bay of Campeche
and move northward late in the week but there remains a large
degree of uncertainty in its evolution.

...Over the Gulf of Mexico, the models and means show an area of
increasing moisture and lower heights aloft/surface pressures
lifting northward out of the Bay of Campeche, with some signals
for possible tropical development per the ECMWF tropical cyclone
formation probabilities >40-50%. By day 7 Friday the manual
forecast shows an area of low pressure ~300 miles south of the
TX/LA border per the NHC-WPC coordinated forecast. Monitor future
forecasts for any adjustments.

...Portions of the Gulf Coast region could see an increase
of rainfall toward the end of next week as moisture pushes
northward across the Gulf. Monitor forecasts/National Hurricane
Center discussions over the coming days for the latest information
regarding any potential tropical cyclone development.


right now, NHC gives it just a 20% chance of development in the next 5 days https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

keep an eye on the NHC, but also experts for your local forecast

https://www.weather.gov/hgx/
https://twitter.com/nwshouston
https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 11, 2021 2:40 pm I 100% understand yall, its juat annoying that im getting so many questions from people and that I cant give them a good answer because the models keep changing the track of where this goes

It's easy..just tell them you won't know till it actually makes it in the gulf and develops...

Well fwiw, the CPC forecast that just came out today still looks good for the rest of the month calling for below average temps and above average precipitation.