July 2021

[Stratton20]

Ah gotcha Jason, on the other hand what do yall think about the potential weather setup for the 4th of July and beyond? Euro going crazy with some impressive rain fall totals, definitely think this front that is expected to stall could cause some problems

[jasons2k]

I think it’s going to dump over the next week. Some folks will see over a foot of rain potentially, but it should ease-off after that.

[Stratton20]

Jasons2k yeah im concerned about the possibility of someone getting more than a foot especially since the Euro has a bullseye of 2 feet near San Antonio! Definitely hard to say where these bullseyes will occur, im just thankful my house was built on an inclined hill

[Rip76]

Wow. 5th named Atlantic Basin storm, and a wet July in the Brazos Valley in addition.

When unusual becomes the norm, indeed.

20/30 years ago the first four this year probably wouldn’t have been named.

[Rip76]

Man I’ve been sitting here refreshing the June topic all day. I was thinking, “No one has posted here all day?”

Duh

[srainhoutx]

Wow. 5th named Atlantic Basin storm, and a wet July in the Brazos Valley in addition.

When unusual becomes the norm, indeed.

20/30 years ago the first four this year probably wouldn’t have been named.

Bingo! Technology has definitely caused an increase in naming Storms that would have been missed in earlier years.

[tireman4]

Rainy weekend coming up!

[jasons2k]

Wow. 5th named Atlantic Basin storm, and a wet July in the Brazos Valley in addition.

When unusual becomes the norm, indeed.

20/30 years ago the first four this year probably wouldn’t have been named.

Bingo! Technology has definitely caused an increase in naming Storms that would have been missed in earlier years.

That...and the accuracy of the NHC and the models both have made huge strides, even since Ike. The last 3-4 years, the NHC has been so accurate it's been almost mind-blowing.

It would be interesting to run a model initialization with Ike from September 3, 2008 and see what would happen with today's models. Of course, there weren't as many data inputs as we have today...but still....I bet they would do pretty well. Just speculating but I suspect that Florida cone probably would not appear out of today's NHC. They have just become that good in the last decade.

[Ptarmigan]

Wow. 5th named Atlantic Basin storm, and a wet July in the Brazos Valley in addition.

When unusual becomes the norm, indeed.

20/30 years ago the first four this year probably wouldn’t have been named.

So very true.

I wonder if some of these record rain events in the past were caused by tropical systems that went undetected.

The 1932 Texas flood dumped nearly 34 inches of rain in 24 hour!
https://www.weather.gov/media/ewx/wxeve ... 992000.pdf

The North Central PA Flood of July 17-18, 1942
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYVEzfNgDzk

[DoctorMu]

20/30 years ago the first four this year probably wouldn’t have been named.

Bingo! Technology has definitely caused an increase in naming Storms that would have been missed in earlier years.

That...and the accuracy of the NHC and the models both have made huge strides, even since Ike. The last 3-4 years, the NHC has been so accurate it's been almost mind-blowing.

It would be interesting to run a model initialization with Ike from September 3, 2008 and see what would happen with today's models. Of course, there weren't as many data inputs as we have today...but still....I bet they would do pretty well. Just speculating but I suspect that Florida cone probably would not appear out of today's NHC. They have just become that good in the last decade.

NHC has blown the models away. Remarkable accuracy.

[jasons2k]

Update from Jeff on now Hurricane Elsa:

USAF mission into Elsa along with radar data and surface observations from Barbados indicate that Elsa is now a hurricane.

Hurricane conditions are quickly spreading into the Windward Islands….various watches and warnings are in effect for portions of the Caribbean Islands (See graphic below).

Discussion:
Elsa has been able to take advantage of favorable conditions over the last 24 hours and based on data from the first USAF mission this morning and Barbados which reported sustained winds of 74g86mph this morning, Elsa has been upgraded to a hurricane. Radar data indicates good banding features with the hurricane and a small central core convective area near the center. Elsa continues to race WNW near 30mph which is extremely fast for a hurricane, but the system has thus far been able to keep its low level and upper level centers aligned.

Track:
Elsa is racing W to WNW and this motion is expected to continue with the strong sub-tropical ridge of high pressure to the north of the hurricane. As mentioned this is really fast for a tropical system. This motion should continue through day 2 (48 hours) and then Elsa will approach a weakness in the strong sub-tropical ridge over the western Atlantic as a mid latitude trough moves across the US east coast. The ECWMF continues to be very fast and weak with Elsa…and why it may have the fast forward speed correct, Elsa is already stronger than the ECWMF suggests. It continues to be an eastern outlier and nearly dissipates Elsa over the Dominican Republic by Sunday. However the GFS and UKMET indicate more of a WNW motion longer and more gradual turn of Elsa into the weakness. This appears to be the increasingly more likely outcome, but guidance ensemble spread is very large from east of the Bahamas to near the northern Yucatan at days 4-5 so confidence remains lower than average on the track.

Intensity:
Conditions are seemingly favorable for development as clearly noted this morning. The fast forward motion of Elsa could at some point become a negative factor to intensification, but thus far this does not seem to be effecting the development of the system. Based on the track reasoning above, land interaction with the high mountains of Hispaniola appear less likely. There remains a large spread in the intensity guidance with most keeping Elsa near the intensity it is now…a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane, while some guidance is much stronger. NHC continues to lean toward the lower end of the guidance spectrum, and the current forecast keeps the system as a weak hurricane or strong tropical storm through the period. It continues to be indicated that Elsa could be stronger than forecasted especially over the NW Caribbean Sea early next week.

[jasons2k]

Lovely - HGX radar is down

Edit: new parts. Hopefully back up soon. I hope they know what they are doing. Seems like an odd day to pick for maintenance

Message Date: Jul 01 2021 17:35:15

HGX will be down for parts replacements between 13-17z Friday July 2nd. kp

[DoctorMu]

As we know unsettled weather is the theme for the July 4th weekend and week ahead.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
647 AM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

TAF package remains generally on track with VFR conditions
generally prevailing through the current period. Winds will
continue to stay light and variable (around 5 knots) ahead of the
approach of a weak surface cold frontal boundary later today.
Scattered showers and storms will accompany the frontal boundary,
but have included VCSH/VCTS wording given expected coverage and
timing uncertainties. Brief reductions in visibility may accompany
any developing storms. Precipitation will continue into the
overnight hours as the boundary stalls near the coast.

Cady

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021/

SHORT TERM [Today Through Saturday Night]...

A messy weekend looks to be ahead, with multiple rounds of
showers and storms potentially putting a damper on any outdoor
Independence Day celebrations. As a mature surface low pushes into
New England today, its associated surface cold front will
continue to drag through much of the eastern half of the CONUS.
While this boundary will be fairly weak as it approaches SE TX
this afternoon and evening, it should nonetheless be sufficient to
aid convective initiation given the favorable antecedent
environmental conditions that are expected to be in place. Global
models and forecast soundings continue to indicate SBCAPE values
reaching in excess of 2000 J/kg while total PWs remain around 2.0
in. A combination of diurnal effects (including the propagation
of the sea breeze) and the approach of the frontal boundary this
afternoon should prove favorable for fairly widespread coverage of
showers and storms with some locally heavy downpours possible
this afternoon and evening. Overnight, the front is expected to
stall before reaching the coast, providing a focus for additional
rainfall on Saturday.

Moisture availability will become even more abundant on Saturday as
the redevelopment of a more persistent onshore flow over the
coastal waters will allow for PW values to rise to around 2.25 in
or higher by early Saturday. With the stalled boundary remaining
situated near the Houston metro, widespread surface instability,
and the aforementioned moisture, showers and storms shouldn`t have
much to overcome to develop during the afternoon and evening
hours. With locally heavy downpours remaining a possibility,
remain weather aware and monitor local road conditions if you plan
to head to any holiday events.

Not much in the way of change in regards to high temperatures
today, with most locations rising into the low to mid 90s once
again. Highs should conversely top out in the upper 80s on
Saturday with more widespread rainfall and cloud cover providing a
bit of cooling. Low temperatures each night will remain in the mid
to upper 70s.

Cady

LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...

Unsettled weather will persist thru much of the week. On July 4th,
guidance is fair agreement depicting the diffuse surface boundary
situated somewhere near the I-10 corridor first thing in the
morning, then begin lifting northward thru the day and serve as a
continued initiation focus for shra/tstms. Expect widespread precip
expand across most of the area throughout the day. Overall coverage
should begin diminishing in the evening, but lingering sct activity
may still impact some firework displays. Confidence in regards to
whether any specific location will see a persistent rain-free time
period between 9-11pm is extremely low at this point, but not
impossible.

A shortwave will dive southward along the eastern periphery of the
ridge to our west and carve out a weakness and/or closed low across
cntl & southern parts of the state into midweek. Higher end Gulf
moisture will still be in place to provide good chances of daily
precipitation...bulk of which will probably be diurnal in nature.

Heading into late week, the low/weakness will transition wwd into
cntl Mexico which should allow for a gradual downward trend of
precip chances/coverage Thurs-Fri and an uptick in daily highs.

Seven day precip totals will probably average 2-5" looking on a
large scale. That said, with the tropical airmass in place, some
localized spots could easily see that in a single day where any of
the slow moving, stronger cells cluster up. Heavy rain rates in a
short time period will be the key, as it almost always is, in
regards to any FF/street flooding threat. 47

MARINE...

Light winds/low seas will persist thru the holiday weekend. Onshore
flow increases early next week which should allow for gradually
building seas. Primary issue/hazard for the next several days will
be increasing shower and thunderstorm chances over the waters. Winds
and seas will be higher in and near storms. TS Elsa should not pose
much of an issue here locally based on the latest NHC fcst track.
May see a longer period erly swell mixed in late Wed-Thurs. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 75 87 74 88 / 50 60 70 30 60
Houston (IAH) 93 76 88 75 87 / 50 60 70 30 70
Galveston (GLS) 90 80 87 78 86 / 30 50 60 40 70

[unome]

Lovely - HGX radar is down

Edit: new parts. Hopefully back up soon. I hope they know what they are doing. Seems like an odd day to pick for maintenance

Message Date: Jul 01 2021 17:35:15

HGX will be down for parts replacements between 13-17z Friday July 2nd. kp

13-17z = 8 AM-Noon CDT, not a horrible time to be down, per our area forecast. Probably difficult to schedule for all the radars nationwide

I know you are anxiously monitoring rainfall and I do hope for the earliest possible pool dig for you, so your daughter can be safely cooling off in her own pool soon - wishing a safe & happy holiday weekend to you & yours & everyone else, too!

[jasons2k]

Lovely - HGX radar is down

Edit: new parts. Hopefully back up soon. I hope they know what they are doing. Seems like an odd day to pick for maintenance

Message Date: Jul 01 2021 17:35:15

HGX will be down for parts replacements between 13-17z Friday July 2nd. kp

13-17z = 8 AM-Noon CDT, not a horrible time to be down, per our area forecast. Probably difficult to schedule for all the radars nationwide

I know you are anxiously monitoring rainfall and I do hope for the earliest possible pool dig for you, so your daughter can be safely cooling off in her own pool soon - wishing a safe & happy holiday weekend to you & yours & everyone else, too!

Thank you!!

Yes, if they finish on-time we should be good. I am a little cautious I guess - I’ve seen too many projects take longer than expected. As soon as you open the hood, so to speak, who knows what else you’ll find, etc.

Anyway - can’t do anything to stop the rain. We would like a break, yes, to get the pool going. My boys are ready (I got 2 boys but not a daughter….sometimes wish I had one though, except when I hear my friends’ stories about their teenage daughters haha).

To you and to everyone else out there on our WxInfinity community - I wish you all a safe and happy 4th!!

[Stratton20]

Hope everyone has a fun 4th of July! Im growing more optimistic that storms will die down in the evening on sunday allowing for fireworks

[unome]

I'm sorry Jason, not sure why I thought you had a daughter? I'll blame it on getting older & grayer & raising 2 boys here as well, lol

anyway, happy & safe 4th all y'all !

[jasons2k]

Unome - don’t sweat it buddy! I can’t keep up myself so I didn’t think anything of it

And…radar is back up folks. Kudos to them!!

[unome]

Elsa up to 85 mph already

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Elsa
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/f ... d=AL052021
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... k#contents

2:00 PM AST Fri Jul 2
Location: 13.7°N 62.5°W
Moving: WNW at 29 mph
Min pressure: 991 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph

[jasons2k]

So much for the E. Caribbean graveyard. Looking like a busy season!