July 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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That is one heavy band of rain pushing into Matagorda County now from the Gulf. Will be interesting to see if it can hold together as it moves further inland.
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don
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A new meso low is taking over as the one from earlier today dies out.Moving inland into San Antonio Bay at the moment. These surface features will continue to rotate around the main broad mid level low.And as one dies another one will form and "takeover", the meso lows will be one of the main drivers when it comes to the heavy rainfall potential over the next 48 hours.BTW like Cpv17 mentioned the EURO has not done a good job with this system at all, for the last week it was consistently pulling the main area of low pressure into Mexico raining itself out with excessive rainfall over there.Which has yet to happen... And now doesn't seem likely at all, as the main area of surface low pressure within the broader mid level low is stalled around the middle Texas coast. And will be for the next 48 hours or so.
Stratton20
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Don what does this mean for areas further northwest like fort bend county? Future track on my weather apps wants to bring in the heavy rain band into katy later on after midnight
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srainhoutx
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Wednesday evening update from Jeff:

High end flash flood event ongoing across the Matagorda Bay and coastal bend region of TX.

Earlier today 10-15 inches of rain fell over the Rockport and Fulton areas resulting in significant flash flooding.

Mid level trough axis remains nearly stationary from deep S TX to west of Victoria with extremely favorable influx of moisture transport and low level convergence along the middle TX coast from north of Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay. “Feeder band” of intense rainfall with hourly rates of 2-5 inches has slowly migrated NNE up from the Rockport area to near Seadrift currently and appears to be aligning for an evening assault on Calhoun County eastward toward Palacios. Low level inflow and rainfall rates will be maximized over Calhoun County for the next several hours where short term totals of 4-8 inches will be possible extending NNW into southern Victoria and portions of Jackson Counties. Significant flash flooding will be possible.

Later tonight this band may progress a bit more NNE into western Matagorda County while additional activity develops to the eastern flank offshore of the Brazoria and Galveston County coasts. Significant rainfall will be possible over the southern and western portions of Matagorda County Thursday morning and some of this may extend inland into Wharton County.

Trough axis shifts little into Friday, yet jet dynamics aloft and continued surge of tropical air mass into the region support another night of excessive rainfall potential Thursday night into Friday morning. This setup may favor more into SE TX as some of the short range models are hinting at large QPF bullseyes over coastal SE TX possibly up to I-10 during this period. Will need to closely monitor this trend over the next 24 hours as the current flash flood watch may need to be expanded some to the northeast.

Additional rainfall totals around Matagorda Bay of 4-8 inches with isolated amounts of 12-14 inches will be possible. Totals across Matagorda into coastal Brazoria and possibly Wharton Counties will likely average 3-6 inches with isolated amounts of up to 8-10 inches. Elsewhere current totals should average less than 3 inches.

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don
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Looking at radar and Infrared if i didn't know any better i would think the meso low moving in was a tropical depression or weak storm,with how large and organized the rainsheild is.Whoever ends up under that band may get dumped on tonight.Not sure how far inland it will make it though we'll have to watch radar trends.
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Stratton20
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That is crazy don, that definitely has some nice structure to it
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Rip76
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That outer edge is approaching Freeport in an hour or so.
Cpv17
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Well the 0z HRRR now has more of a west track...
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Ptarmigan
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don wrote: Wed Jul 07, 2021 8:11 pm Looking at radar and Infrared if i didn't know any better i would think the meso low moving in was a tropical depression or weak storm,with how large and organized the rainsheild is.Whoever ends up under that band may get dumped on tonight.Not sure how far inland it will make it though we'll have to watch radar trends.
Looks like a tropical low to me.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 yeah... Hopefully that changes though, seems like the HRRR keeps flip flopping on where the low goes
davidiowx
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That’s a comma if I’ve ever seen one!
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Ptarmigan
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed Jul 07, 2021 9:30 pm Cpv17 yeah... Hopefully that changes though, seems like the HRRR keeps flip flopping on where the low goes
Forecast models do not handle them well.
Stratton20
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Ptarmigan the way I see it , trying to forecast the movement of a meandering low is like trying to throw a dart at the center of the dartboard while blindfolded, that dart could go anywhere, same thing with the low, that was a bad analogy but that’s how I see it😂😂
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Rip76
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Outer edge about to move into West Columbia now. Looks like the Houston area in a few hours.
Cpv17
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I’d rather this be a depression so the NHC would put out a track for it.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 thats actually not a bad idea, but how could they put out a track when models aren't agreeing on where the low is going to go?
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed Jul 07, 2021 10:40 pm Cpv17 thats actually not a bad idea, but how could they put out a track when models aren't agreeing on where the low is going to go?
They’re pretty accurate though tbh. They’ve improved quite a bit the past few years.
davidiowx
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Quite an interesting blob and the rain shield is migrating NE. Models are out the window at this point: it’s a now cast/wait and see situation now. People just need to be weather aware, especially if traveling.
Cromagnum
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Looks like it's dumping in Lake Jackson right now. Should be a fun morning commute for the 3rd morning in a row.
MH5
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I’m headed down to South Padre for family vacation on Friday.. will be really curious to see what route I have to end up taking if this thing continues to park it and just spin over the same general area these next 2 days.
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