July 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
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Ah gotcha Jason, on the other hand what do yall think about the potential weather setup for the 4th of July and beyond? Euro going crazy with some impressive rain fall totals, definitely think this front that is expected to stall could cause some problems
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jasons2k
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I think it’s going to dump over the next week. Some folks will see over a foot of rain potentially, but it should ease-off after that.
Stratton20
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Jasons2k yeah im concerned about the possibility of someone getting more than a foot especially since the Euro has a bullseye of 2 feet near San Antonio! Definitely hard to say where these bullseyes will occur, im just thankful my house was built on an inclined hill
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Rip76
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DoctorMu wrote: Thu Jul 01, 2021 10:53 am Wow. 5th named Atlantic Basin storm, and a wet July in the Brazos Valley in addition.

When unusual becomes the norm, indeed.

20/30 years ago the first four this year probably wouldn’t have been named.
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Rip76
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Man I’ve been sitting here refreshing the June topic all day. I was thinking, “No one has posted here all day?”

Duh
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srainhoutx
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Rip76 wrote: Thu Jul 01, 2021 5:55 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Thu Jul 01, 2021 10:53 am Wow. 5th named Atlantic Basin storm, and a wet July in the Brazos Valley in addition.

When unusual becomes the norm, indeed.

20/30 years ago the first four this year probably wouldn’t have been named.
Bingo! Technology has definitely caused an increase in naming Storms that would have been missed in earlier years.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
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tireman4
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Rainy weekend coming up!
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jasons2k
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srainhoutx wrote: Thu Jul 01, 2021 6:17 pm
Rip76 wrote: Thu Jul 01, 2021 5:55 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Thu Jul 01, 2021 10:53 am Wow. 5th named Atlantic Basin storm, and a wet July in the Brazos Valley in addition.

When unusual becomes the norm, indeed.

20/30 years ago the first four this year probably wouldn’t have been named.
Bingo! Technology has definitely caused an increase in naming Storms that would have been missed in earlier years.
That...and the accuracy of the NHC and the models both have made huge strides, even since Ike. The last 3-4 years, the NHC has been so accurate it's been almost mind-blowing.

It would be interesting to run a model initialization with Ike from September 3, 2008 and see what would happen with today's models. Of course, there weren't as many data inputs as we have today...but still....I bet they would do pretty well. Just speculating but I suspect that Florida cone probably would not appear out of today's NHC. They have just become that good in the last decade.
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Ptarmigan
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Rip76 wrote: Thu Jul 01, 2021 5:55 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Thu Jul 01, 2021 10:53 am Wow. 5th named Atlantic Basin storm, and a wet July in the Brazos Valley in addition.

When unusual becomes the norm, indeed.

20/30 years ago the first four this year probably wouldn’t have been named.
So very true.

I wonder if some of these record rain events in the past were caused by tropical systems that went undetected.

The 1932 Texas flood dumped nearly 34 inches of rain in 24 hour!
https://www.weather.gov/media/ewx/wxeve ... 992000.pdf

The North Central PA Flood of July 17-18, 1942
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYVEzfNgDzk
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Thu Jul 01, 2021 7:32 pm
srainhoutx wrote: Thu Jul 01, 2021 6:17 pm
Rip76 wrote: Thu Jul 01, 2021 5:55 pm


20/30 years ago the first four this year probably wouldn’t have been named.
Bingo! Technology has definitely caused an increase in naming Storms that would have been missed in earlier years.
That...and the accuracy of the NHC and the models both have made huge strides, even since Ike. The last 3-4 years, the NHC has been so accurate it's been almost mind-blowing.

It would be interesting to run a model initialization with Ike from September 3, 2008 and see what would happen with today's models. Of course, there weren't as many data inputs as we have today...but still....I bet they would do pretty well. Just speculating but I suspect that Florida cone probably would not appear out of today's NHC. They have just become that good in the last decade.
NHC has blown the models away. Remarkable accuracy.
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