July 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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Re: July 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Tue Jul 20, 2021 12:03 am

Cpv17 wrote:
Mon Jul 19, 2021 9:23 pm
jasons2k wrote:
Mon Jul 19, 2021 8:15 pm
Wow it was supposed to rain and didn’t…
Shocker :lol:
A July front overperformed on advancing through Texas to the Gulf. It was predicted to stall near us. :lol:

Cromagnum
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Re: July 2021

Post by Cromagnum » Tue Jul 20, 2021 6:02 am

Very impressive looking rain right at and just off the coast.

But I guess that's that for rain today, unless this brews over the water and comes back.

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jasons2k
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Re: July 2021

Post by jasons2k » Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:32 am

Wow, so much for that 80% of rain today. Gone.
I’ll take it. Pool company says later this week is a possibility.

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DoctorMu
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Re: July 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Tue Jul 20, 2021 9:00 am

Cromagnum wrote:
Tue Jul 20, 2021 6:02 am
Very impressive looking rain right at and just off the coast.

But I guess that's that for rain today, unless this brews over the water and comes back.
That front is way, way into the Gulf. The only chance of rain for us now would be if a tropical system in the GoM emerged.

At least we have northerly winds and lower dewpoints!

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Re: July 2021

Post by Goomba » Tue Jul 20, 2021 9:17 am

Hi guys. Long time lurker. Probably won't post much, but read a lot. I'm west of Beaumont and we had quite a bit of rain overnight. Almost 2 inches and still raining, but lightly now. We only had 30% chance overnight and 70% today. I feel like that was the most for today, and it's enough.

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Re: July 2021

Post by Stratton20 » Tue Jul 20, 2021 9:35 am

DoctorMu its possible, not saying something definitely will spin up, but these fronts can always be a little mischievous in the gulf, just something casually to watch

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DoctorMu
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Re: July 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Tue Jul 20, 2021 10:19 am

Stratton20 wrote:
Tue Jul 20, 2021 9:35 am
DoctorMu its possible, not saying something definitely will spin up, but these fronts can always be a little mischievous in the gulf, just something casually to watch
They always are.

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tireman4
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Re: July 2021

Post by tireman4 » Tue Jul 20, 2021 11:24 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 201130
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
630 AM CDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Overnight thunderstorms have pushed off the coast, leaving LIFR to
MVFR conditions in their wake. Potential for showers and storms to
redevelop later this morning into the afternoon closer to the
coast, with VCSH for UTS/CXO/IAH and VCTS for the southern half of
Houston and the coastal sites. SW/W winds at the coast, and N
winds further inland, becoming light and variable tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 427 AM CDT Tue Jul 20 2021/...

.DISCUSSION...

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are already occurring along the
Gulf Coast early this morning - and while it`s drier further inland,
there are still some isolated showers there as well.

Sporadic rounds of showers and storms will continue to be the
dominant weather story for most of the work week as an upper low
closes off to our west, but as we approach the weekend, an upper
ridge will build over Texas, and as the rain chances dwindle, we`ll
shift from a rainier and cooler summer pattern to a hotter and drier
summer pattern.




.SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Night]...

After the radar started to cool down for the briefest bit, things
have really started to light up again down at the coast. While it`s
a bit difficult to discern in radar and satellite imagery, surface
obs show pretty clearly the development of a mesoscale convective
vortex to the northeast of the Houston metro, in the rough vicinity
of the Tyler/Hardin county line.

As noted in the recent WPC mesoscale precip discussion, this really
highlights the Louisiana coast for heavy rain potential. But, with
that said, the offshore flow on the backside of the MCV will also
create a convergence zone at the coast, with a front-like boundary
becoming the main focus for rain in our forecast area into early
Tuesday morning. This flow pattern is also likely to really cut down
on rain potential farther inland - and while we are already seeing
that some isolated showers will still be able to pop up farther
inland, they will be cut off from the best environment for rain and
storms today. Because of that, I kept with the evening shift`s trend
of lower PoPs inland.

MCVs are notorious for being handled terribly by numerical guidance.
For what it is worth, the HRRR seems to be the most on top of the
situation, so my forecast in the short term leans pretty heavily to
the HRRR. This brings the MCV southeast towards the coast, gradually
pushing the most significant band of rainfall offshore later this
morning and into the afternoon. I`m not totally sold on things
getting totally dry given the inherent uncertainty involved in such
a mesoscale-dominated situation. So while I do bring the highest
rain potential offshore, I smear some chance PoPs back into
Southeast Texas, just in case we don`t see as much movement out of
this MCV today. Similarly, though the guidance would tend to favor
going totally dry inland of the Houston metro, I`ll keep some slight
PoPs up there.

For tomorrow, we`ll look for the deep upper trough to pinch off a
closed low overhead, which will then retrograde back to our west
over Central Texas. This is another situation in which the details
are frustratingly difficult to pin down, as subtle differences in
the location of everything in the setup can mean a big difference in
sensible weather for us. On a broader perspective, though, this
pattern is a very high confidence one for an unsettled, stormy
pattern to continue a little bit longer. We`ll eventually see a
change to that, but it`s not to come in this part of the forecast.
Read on for more on that.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...

With the upper trough expected to weaken (as it retrogrades SW), we
may be able to squeeze out one more day of scattered activity along
the seabreeze on Thurs. As it has been of late, things should start
out over the coastal waters/counties during the early morning hours
with development increasing/strengthening during the day as all the
convection moves inland. Activity is expected decrease by sunset.

Thereafter, a warmer/drier pattern will be settling in for the week
end as the upper ridge builds back over the region. The progged 85h
temperatures are hinting that daytime highs could range in the mid/
upper 90s across much of the CWFA for Sat/Sun. Lows will range from
the lower to mid 70s inland...around 80 at the coast.

Rain chances could return by early next week as this aforementioned
upper ridge is forecast to drift north a bit. This should allow for
seabreeze activity to start up once again and perhaps an occasional
shortwave or two to approach from the east (as they move across the
northern Gulf/coast).


.MARINE...

Winds have increased on the waters into the 15 to 20 knot range as
an MCV inland develops. Because of this, caution flags are up
until later this morning, when winds are expected to diminish. In
addition to that, widespread showers and thunderstorms are
developing, which will further increase winds and waves where the
storms are strongest, as well as introduce threats of frequent
lightning and heavy rain.

Expect at least scattered showers and storms to stick with us for
the next few days, as we sit in an environment that is conducive
to their development. A ridge will build west from the Atlantic
this weekend, which should put an end to this prolonged stretch of
enhanced thunderstorm development. At the same time, the surface
pressure pattern will respond with a tighter gradient, meaning
some more moderate to occasionally gusty onshore flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 89 72 90 72 92 / 20 20 30 10 40
Houston (IAH) 89 74 91 76 93 / 40 20 50 30 50
Galveston (GLS) 88 79 89 81 92 / 70 50 40 30 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston
Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...41
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Luchs

Stratton20
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Re: July 2021

Post by Stratton20 » Tue Jul 20, 2021 12:10 pm

I think the tropics might start to wake up or become more active around the 27/28th of July, a favorable phase of the MJO is expected to move into the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf Of Mexico during that time, promoting favorable rising upward motion, I suspect we will start to see an uptick in activity within the next 10 days

TexasBreeze
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Re: July 2021

Post by TexasBreeze » Tue Jul 20, 2021 1:01 pm

I could get used to this mid 80s and breeze at almost 2pm in the afternoon! Not sweating outside so far!

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