July 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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Re: July 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Tue Jul 20, 2021 1:41 pm

Had a couple of power surges today, lost a lot of work and spending hours trying to recover. (*^%&E$*^&$!

Besides being hot as hell, another reason to pray for rain, clouds, etc...Texas' power grid and infrastructure are still in the crapper and Abbott and ERCOT have only worsened the situation. We're looking at brownouts and rolling blackouts in August if the Death Ridge returns after a year's absence.

Stratton20
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Re: July 2021

Post by Stratton20 » Tue Jul 20, 2021 1:42 pm

DoctorMu well I sure hope the Euro is correct, the 12z run favors weaker ridging over SE Texas by this weekend

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DoctorMu
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Re: July 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Tue Jul 20, 2021 3:59 pm

Yeah, the ridging on Saturday peaks in south Texas, then weakens on Euro, GFS, CMC models beginning Sunday,

Ridging next week builds more over the Southeast, Limited showers for us, but a 20%-30% chance next week would be better than the usual CLL summer fare.

We may get lucky late week. Not counting on it.

The good news today is that we are 89°F at the peak of the day heat with a N10 wind. There's still enough moisture in the ground not to water yet. Will probably have to after mowing tomorrow evening and/or Thursday.

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Re: July 2021

Post by Stratton20 » Tue Jul 20, 2021 4:02 pm

DoctorMu id gladly take a weakened ridge with 20-30% rain chances than a heat ridge sitting right on top of us any day😁keeping fingers crossed this ridge stays far enough away from SE TEXAS to allow for some scattered showers

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DoctorMu
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Re: July 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Tue Jul 20, 2021 5:19 pm

Widely scattered small storms riding in from the NE - very unusual.

Edit: Lucy & football again

The bad news is that NWS and Meteorologist Fowler just jacked up the highs during the weekend.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
347 PM CDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday]...

The majority of the thunderstorms today have remained offshore
today, but some thunderstorms have developed across the coast this
afternoon. These storms will move offshore in the next few hours
with some lingering showers continuing through the evening. A lull
in the precipitation is expected tonight over land with showers
and thunderstorms persisting over the Gulf. The north to
northeasterly flow that occurred today will become more variable
tomorrow, and then east to southeasterly tomorrow evening as the
upper level low moves into West Texas. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms begin to move onshore during the morning tomorrow,
and then expand inland through the afternoon as a diffuse warm
front/sea breeze moves through. Expecting coverage to expand
between noon and 4pm south of I-10, then north of I-10 between 4pm
and sunset. The diffuse warm front will bring in higher slightly
PWATS with outflow boundary collisions being the main driver in
where and when thunderstorms pop up. Breaks in the cloud cover
tomorrow will lead to slightly warmer temperatures with afternoon
highs climbing into the low 90s.

Fowler


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Tuesday]...
Wednesday night deeper moisture poised over the Gulf will start
flowing back into SETX as the upper low in WestCentralTX drifts
westward and upper level winds become more favorable for lift with
upper diffluence and speed max rotating around the low. PW of
1.8-2.1" ramp up. Expect rain chances in the morning near the
coast to expand inland and scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop a little earlier in the day and potentially wane a little
sooner in the afternoon as the upper ridging/subsidence increases
over the Gulf and expands into the coastal areas. Currently
leaning toward a slightly slower arrival of the subsidence and
will maintain the higher chances Thursday. Thursday night into
Friday should begin the warmup with a fairly abrupt drop in rain
chances. Temperatures in the afternoon Friday and Saturday should
be in the mid to upper 90s...upper 90s more likely on Saturday. :shock:
Staying hot on Sunday as the upper ridge builds in directly
overhead Saturday and then slowly starts to edge away on Sunday.

By late Monday as well as on Tuesday will get into easterly flow
aloft and could help to focus storms along the I-10 corridor as
moisture levels increase again.

Heat safety will become a focus again Friday through Sunday with
abundant sunshine, heat indices 104 to 109. May need heat
advisories this weekend.
45

&&

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jasons2k
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Re: July 2021

Post by jasons2k » Wed Jul 21, 2021 7:04 am

Rain chances are back to below 50% the next few days and then hopefully a break (for me at least).

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Re: July 2021

Post by Cpv17 » Wed Jul 21, 2021 11:27 am

Just got a decent 20 min shower at my job in Rosenberg. Rained hard for about 10 minutes of that.

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Re: July 2021

Post by tireman4 » Wed Jul 21, 2021 11:30 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 211129
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
629 AM CDT Wed Jul 21 2021

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms again today, but lighter
coverage more like yesterday than seen in days prior. Best shot
for storms nearer the seabreeze. E/SE winds developing today,
becoming light and variable again overnight. IFR-MVFR level
clouds can be expected, but not anticipating CIGs at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 442 AM CDT Wed Jul 21 2021/...

.DISCUSSION...

Though our unsettled stretch chock full of periods of showers and
storms is not quite over yet, there is light at the end of the
tunnel, and a transition to the hot `n dry version of our summer
is set to begin. Well...dry by Southeast Texas standards, anyway.
For today and tomorrow, we should have the last gasp of days with
pretty decent coverage of showers and storms, mainly driven by the
daily seabreeze pattern. And even though coverage still looks
notable, it is not likely to be as widespread as it was several
days ago. This will be particularly noticeable farther from the
seabreeze.

Once we get to Friday, a more obvious change to dominant fair
weather should begin to emerge, and really take over for the
weekend. On the plus side, we`ll get a good, solid respite from
our stretch of rainy weather, and the humidity should back off
modestly. On the down side, where the sun comes out and the air is
drier, the temperature will go up. The one nice thing about the
month so far was that temperatures had been consistently running a
few degrees below seasonal averages - giving our bodies, and our
electric bills, a nice rest on the heat front. That comes to an
end this weekend. High temperatures will be near or above seasonal
averages into next week.




.SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]...

Like last night, some convection near the coast is beginning to
push offshore - this has already occurred around Galveston Bay,
but the rain is still over land back by Bay City. The radar also
shows a handful of showers further inland as well, though this is
pretty limited as some persistent, weak, offshore (or, at least,
not onshore) flow has helped precipitable water values drift down
to 1.6 inches or so per GOES-East.

The Gulf waters should be the main focus through the morning
thanks to a nocturnal land breeze. It`s able to set up among the
remnants of low pressure over the Louisiana coast that was the
mesoscale convective vortex we dealt with last night. But,
eventually, given how weak the surface pressure pattern is,
heating will win out and a seabreeze will begin to push inland
this afternoon. It will be the focus for afternoon convection
today, and should be the area with the best coverage of storms
today. That said, a weak upper low is drifting around to our west,
and should keep midlevel heights low enough for some isolated
storms to pop up further inland. So, while those north/northwest
of the Houston metro may not see quite as much in the way of
showers and storms this afternoon, don`t necessarily expect for
that area to be completely dry. Amongst this, expect highs to
again be near or just a little below seasonal averages, in the
ballpark of 90 degrees.

And if that plan for today sounds good, I`ve got some real good
news for you about tomorrow. The broad picture stays pretty much
the same to start the day, with a land breeze taking over late
tonight, giving way to a seabreeze for the afternoon. And along
with that, we`ll have another afternoon with some isolated to
scattered showers and storms with highs in the lower 90s. But,
though the end result looks pretty similar, there are the hints of
the upcoming pattern change here. The aforementioned upper low
will drift further west into West Texas, allowing a stacked ridge
to begin building in from the east. This will result in onshore
flow at the surface to enhance the seabreeze and push it further
inland. Meanwhile, ridging up through the column will introduce
anticyclonic flow overhead at basically all levels, and will
become a bigger factor in our weather in the long term.


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...

A deepening ridge of high pressure will be building into the region
by Fri (from the northern Gulf and this feature is expected to loom
large and charge through the upcoming weekend. With the skies most-
ly clear and light S/SW winds in place, we could be looking at some
warm daytime temperatures and heat index values for Sat and Sun. At
this time, heat indicies ranging from 105-110F are progged with max
afternoon temperatures in the upper 90s through the weekend. We may
need to visit the idea of a Heat Advisory for this time frame...but
heat safety should be a focus nonetheless (as it *IS* mid/late July
in SE TX). Some relief will be possible during the evening and over-
night hours as lows range from the lower to mid 70s inland...around
80 at the coast.

Rain chances could return by early next week as this aforementioned
upper ridge is forecast to drift north a bit. This should allow for
seabreeze activity to start up once again and perhaps an occasional
shortwave or two approaching from the east (as they move across the
northern Gulf/coast).


.MARINE...

A few showers and storms can be expected into the morning,
particularly south of Galveston Bay. Light and variable winds
will persist through tonight, but southerly flow resumes Thursday.
Deepening moisture will continue to give us potential for
scattered showers and thunderstorms one more time on Thursday as
well. Drier weather is expected after Friday as high pressure to
the east takes control, establishing southerly flow into the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 90 73 92 76 95 / 30 20 30 20 20
Houston (IAH) 91 75 92 77 95 / 50 40 30 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 88 81 90 83 94 / 30 30 60 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...41
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Luchs

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Rip76
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Re: July 2021

Post by Rip76 » Wed Jul 21, 2021 12:34 pm

So nothing going on with the front that washed out to the GoM?

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tireman4
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Re: July 2021

Post by tireman4 » Wed Jul 21, 2021 1:03 pm

XUS64 KHGX 211749
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1249 PM CDT Wed Jul 21 2021

.AVIATION...

Mostly VFR expected today with another round of SH/TS through
this evening. Activity will dissipate with the loss of diurnal
heating. A few areas may experience some shallow fog and lowered
cigs briefly during the night and early morning hours, but chance
is low at this time and have thus not mentioned it in this TAF
package. A few SH/TS could move into the coastal locations early
Thu morning and may affect GLS/LBX from time to time. VRB light
winds today will turn S Thu.

24

&&

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