July 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
unome
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Re: July 2021

Post by unome » Fri Jul 30, 2021 6:17 pm

jasons2k wrote:
Thu Jul 29, 2021 4:45 pm
Gunite is in. It needs to cure before they can do much else except some plumbing work for awhile. We have passed the critical excavation/gunite stage so it can pour all it wants to now!

We got a surprise shower of .26” early this am and that was perfect timing, actually.

nice... storms missed us by feet this afternoon, I swear...

Stratton20
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Re: July 2021

Post by Stratton20 » Fri Jul 30, 2021 7:28 pm

18z GEFS ensemble is hinting at possible tropical development in the gulf , in the 8-10 day window from now, Euro ensembles not showing anything, something to watch though

Cromagnum
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Re: July 2021

Post by Cromagnum » Sat Jul 31, 2021 1:32 pm

If my luck wasn't bad I wouldn't have luck at all. Good storms formed right on top of us, but dropped nothing. Pouring just down the street now. So lame.

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DoctorMu
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Re: July 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Sat Jul 31, 2021 1:42 pm

Cromagnum wrote:
Sat Jul 31, 2021 1:32 pm
If my luck wasn't bad I wouldn't have luck at all. Good storms formed right on top of us, but dropped nothing. Pouring just down the street now. So lame.
That was my yesterday. Not even a sniff today. Lawn looking crispy. It looks like fertilizer + 2% iron, then massive watering this evening.

*There's a chance* Monday evening, maybe Tuesday as the front arrives a little early.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1234 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR with southwest winds becoming more southerly this afternoon.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms drifting inland on the
seabreeze. Unsure if it will push all the way to IAH, but have a
mention of VCTS this afternoon. Sky clears out this evening with
light/VRB/SW winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 639 AM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021/...

.SHORT TERM [Through Sunday Night]...

Much like yesterday, today will see a return of hot and humid
temperatures along with afternoon showers and thunderstorms. With a
mid-level high pressure still northwest of our region and a trough
over the Eastern US pushing further south, it will help steer a mid-
level easterly wave into Coastal TX today. Early this morning,
coastal streamer showers are expected to push onshore. By this
afternoon, rich moisture (PWs near 2 inches), SBCAPE of ~2000 J/kg,
and daytime heating will kick off afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. With weak synoptic steering flow, where these storms
initialize and propagate will be largely mesoscale driven. The mid-
level high pressure will be further north today compared to
yesterday, so this afternoon convective activity could initialize
and push further north as well.

Sunday is a similar story with morning coastal showers pushing
onshore and afternoon showers and thunderstorms firing off further
inland. However, as the trough over the Eastern US continues to push
further south, a very late season "cold" front will begin to push
south and encroach along our northern CWA late Sunday night.
Therefore, rain chances will slowly begin to increase for our
northernmost counties late Sunday night.

However, summertime heat is another concern today with our
northeastern counties (Houston, Trinity, San Jacinto, Polk and
Northern Liberty counties) under a heat advisory until this evening.
The remainder of our counties will still hover near heat advisory
criteria for this afternoon, so even if you aren`t located in the
previously mentioned counties, it is still important to practice
proper heat safety. By Sunday, temperatures will be slightly lower
and aren`t expected to reach heat advisory criteria, but will still
remain in the triple digits.

KBL


.LONG TERM [Monday Through Saturday Night]...

With the mid level ridge now out west, a deepening mid level trough
out east will help to push a cold front into our area. There are
some timing differences on this slowish moving boundary, but as of
now it looks to be in our northern counties on Monday and will slowly
sag southward on Monday night and Tuesday. Look for increasing shower
and thunderstorm chances with this front, especially Monday afternoon
through Tuesday. The rain chance and temperature forecast for much
of the remainder of the week then gets a little tricky for our area
due to the uncertainty as to if/when/where the front eventually stalls.

A drier and slightly cooler air mass can be expected behind the front
while the warm temperatures and better rain chances persist to the
south of the front. By the end of the week and into the first half
of the weekend, the front should be long gone (retreated back north
as a warm front), and with a return of south to southeast winds expect
warming temperatures and increasing humidities. 42


.MARINE...

Light to occasionally moderate south to southwest winds can be expected
through Monday. A weak cold front will approach the area in a late Monday
through Tuesday or Tuesday night time period and could stall near the
coast with north winds developing behind the boundary. Daily shower
and thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast and could increase in
association with the front. Locally higher winds and seas will be possible
in and around thunderstorms. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 77 97 77 95 75 / 0 20 30 60 40
Houston (IAH) 78 97 78 96 76 / 10 30 20 60 60
Galveston (GLS) 82 92 82 92 79 / 10 30 20 40 60

Stratton20
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Re: July 2021

Post by Stratton20 » Sat Jul 31, 2021 1:47 pm

12z Euro in the 8-10 day range is starting to show more tropical waves coming off the coast of africa, but this time these waves might hold together as they traverse the atlantic, something to watch

Stratton20
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Re: July 2021

Post by Stratton20 » Sat Jul 31, 2021 3:59 pm

DoctorMu will be interesting to see if that front stalls or pushes out into the gulf , GFS is suggesting we will have a lot of rising air/ motion in the atmosphere around when that front pushes into the gulf potentially, could see a sneaky spin up possibility next week

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DoctorMu
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Re: July 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Sat Jul 31, 2021 6:05 pm

GEFS and GEPS ensembles are buying into 1-3.5 in of rain into the area this week. We'll see.

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DoctorMu
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Re: July 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Sat Jul 31, 2021 6:07 pm

18z GFS run is drier. Another Lucy & football ?

Stratton20
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Re: July 2021

Post by Stratton20 » Sat Jul 31, 2021 6:29 pm

DoctorMu Hope we get some good rain from this front, my plants are looking pretty crispy

Cpv17
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Re: July 2021

Post by Cpv17 » Sat Jul 31, 2021 7:17 pm

Temps are boiling in the Gulf 84-88°F. Would hate for a storm to get in there under ideal conditions.

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