July 2021

[unome]

according to the Chronicle article, 87 is "chilly"

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/h ... 290374.php

Houston forecast from HGX https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... n=-95.3695

[Cromagnum]

So I thought we were suppose to have numerous thunderstorms and lots of rain starting today?

[Stratton20]

Na the action really starts tommorow, though I am getting a nice little storm over Katy right now

[Cromagnum]

Sigh. Mother in law was suppose to catch a flight out of hobby tomorrow at 10 and it got bumped back to 1. Gonna be a fun day

[Cpv17]

The CMC tonight is off it’s rocker lol

[Cromagnum]

The CMC tonight is off it’s rocker lol

How so?

[davidiowx]

The CMC tonight is off it’s rocker lol

How so?

Was wondering the same thing, went back and looked and I don’t see anything from the CMC that shows a lot of rain for our area and it’s definitely nothing to write home about with Elsa

[TexasBreeze]

The interesting part is the area in the sw and west of our area on that cmc model showing major accumulations.

[Stratton20]

That bullseye could be anywhere though, models can only predict where the heaviest rains will fall, obviously not calling for a 20 inch bullseye here, just depends on where the upper low to the southwest sets up

[Cpv17]

That bullseye could be anywhere though, models can only predict where the heaviest rains will fall, obviously not calling for a 20 inch bullseye here, just depends on where the upper low to the southwest sets up

Yep! That’s what I was referring to. I mean the Victoria area isn’t that far away.

[Stratton20]

Cov17 yeah its prwtty close, we will see what the 12z model runs show, I definitely will be growing more concerned if the Euro spits out totals similar to the CMC

[TexasBreeze]

The gfs shows the high totals, but over the water instead.

[Stratton20]

GFS has trended wetter for our area and the 12z CMC has shifted the really high rain totals closer to houston

[don]

Models are trending further east with the cutoff low. Bringing more energy over the gulf as a surface low develops either just offshore or inland in south Texas.With the saturated grounds i wouldn't rule out the possibility of a inland depression forming due to the brown ocean effect, and the surface lows proximity to the coast. Both the 12Z GFS and CMC show the potential for excessive rainfall, they just differ on there placement of it, as to be expected in this range. And both models show precipitable waters on par with tropical cyclones. Stay weather aware as next week could get interesting around here.

[Stratton20]

DON Yeah i an starting to become more concerned with flooding problem after the 4th, will be interesting to see what the Euro shows in an hour

[DoctorMu]

I think we're down to Nowcasting.

NW conveyer belt of showers along the front, draped across the region, are becoming more potent.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/c ... &length=24

[DoctorMu]

GOES majestically tells the tale from the front to Hurricane Elsa

[DoctorMu]

Man, it's pouring up in CLL now. This could be an all-afternoon event.

Looks like 2-3 inch an hour stuff IF it's sustained. However, the cells are patchy and moving about 30 mph SE.

[DoctorMu]

Models are trending further east with the cutoff low. Bringing more energy over the gulf as a surface low develops either just offshore or inland in south Texas.With the saturated grounds i wouldn't rule out the possibility of a inland depression forming due to the brown ocean effect, and the surface lows proximity to the coast. Both the 12Z GFS and CMC show the potential for excessive rainfall, they just differ on there placement of it, as to be expected in this range. And both models show precipitable waters on par with tropical cyclones. Stay weather aware as next week could get interesting around here.

Right. Let's also keep in mind the potential for tropical development as the front sags into the GoM.

[Cpv17]

Models are trending further east with the cutoff low. Bringing more energy over the gulf as a surface low develops either just offshore or inland in south Texas.With the saturated grounds i wouldn't rule out the possibility of a inland depression forming due to the brown ocean effect, and the surface lows proximity to the coast. Both the 12Z GFS and CMC show the potential for excessive rainfall, they just differ on there placement of it, as to be expected in this range. And both models show precipitable waters on par with tropical cyclones. Stay weather aware as next week could get interesting around here.

Right. Let's also keep in mind the potential for tropical development as the front sags into the GoM.

Waters in the western Gulf are in the mid 80’s. Easily warm enough.