July 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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Kingwood36 wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 12:08 pm As long as it doesn't rain next Friday night and Saturday I'm good..it can rain it's butt off except for those 2 days
For your convenience, fronts are progged to arrive on consecutive Tuesdays... 8-)
Kingwood36
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DoctorMu wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 12:20 pm
Kingwood36 wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 12:08 pm As long as it doesn't rain next Friday night and Saturday I'm good..it can rain it's butt off except for those 2 days
For your convenience, fronts are progged to arrive on consecutive Tuesdays... 8-)
Nice!😎
Pas_Bon
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Kingwood36 wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 12:41 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 12:20 pm
Kingwood36 wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 12:08 pm As long as it doesn't rain next Friday night and Saturday I'm good..it can rain it's butt off except for those 2 days
For your convenience, fronts are progged to arrive on consecutive Tuesdays... 8-)
Nice!😎
How do I speak to the fronts manager?
Stratton20
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By around the 3rd the latest GFS is showing Alot and I mean ALOT of rising air in the atlantic, gulf and caribbean, definitely a little bit concerning to say the least, especially with that front coming around that time
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jasons2k
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Gunite is in. It needs to cure before they can do much else except some plumbing work for awhile. We have passed the critical excavation/gunite stage so it can pour all it wants to now!

We got a surprise shower of .26” early this am and that was perfect timing, actually.
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DoctorMu
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^Nice!

We literally missed a shower this afternoon by 2 blocks! :roll:

There is a *slight* chance of a brief shower in the next 30 minutes... not holding my breath.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 301223
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
723 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

MVFR visibilites/ceilings will dissipate shortly after sunrise.
VFR will prevail the rest of the day. Southern airports (IAH,
HOU, SGR, LBX, and GLS) might see some afternoon tstorms, so VCTS
from approximately 20-01Z for those sites. Exact location of these
afternoon pop-up storms is uncertain right now, so expect short
term amendments should this activity impact a terminal. Brief
MVFR or IFR visibilites/ceilings and variable gusty winds
possible with the strongest activity.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 334 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021/...


.SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Night]...

A strong ridge stretching from Texas to the Pacific Northwest flanked
by a trough across the Eastern US will remain in place through the
short-term forecast. As the mid-level high pressure drifts slightly
north today, this will steer a mid-level easterly wave across the
Gulf Coast states through the weekend. For the southern half of our
CWA, PWs will climb to near 2.2 inches today and forecast soundings
predict at least 2000 J/kg of CAPE. This combined with other
instability indices and daytime heating should be enough to fire off
some afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the southern half of
our CWA. Our northern CWA will be competing with more subsidence and
relatively drier air, so deep convection will be harder to initiate
and maintain itself throughout the day primarily north of Harris
County. By Saturday morning, the mid-level high pressure will still
be north of our CWA while the mid-level easterly wave will be draped
across Coastal TX. This will provide just enough weakness aloft to
initiate afternoon showers and thunderstorms across our southern
counties, especially along the coast.

As far as temperatures go, it is still going to be a warm and humid
weekend. Daytime highs will be in the mid-90s and heat index values
will hover near heat advisory criteria this afternoon. Regardless
with heat index in the triple digits, it is still important to
practice proper heat safety when going outside for extended periods
of time. By Saturday, temperatures are forecast to be a few degrees
higher and therefore, heat index values will also be slightly
higher, prompting a potential heat advisory for Saturday.

KBL


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday Night]...

Another day of very warm temperatures (highs in the mid to upper 90s
and maybe even reaching 100 degrees at some spots) can be expected
on Sunday. Once again, we`ll be monitoring the possibility of a
Heat Advisory as heat index values approach or even exceed 108 degrees.
We might need to do the same thing again on Monday for parts of
the area before relief comes with an early August cold front.
Whether or not a Heat Advisory is in effect, continue to take all
heat safety precautions - practice heat safety wherever you are.

The front will slowly work its way southward toward our area in the
late Monday-Tuesday time period as the pattern shifts to ridging out
west and a trough out east. Increasing cloud cover and a rise in rain
chances can be expected with this front that could linger across parts
of our area through Thursday before beginning to retreat back northward
on Friday. 42


.MARINE...

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds will persist. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will remain in the forecast for mainly overnight
through morning activity. Stronger and variable winds along with locally
higher seas will be possible with any strong storms. 42


.CLIMATE...

The low temperature yesterday (July 29th) at Houston Hobby Airport was
81 degrees. This tied their old record of 81 degrees set in 2017.

Hobby`s average low temperature so far this month has been 77.8 degrees.
Dating back to 1931, this ranks as their 5th warmest July 1-29 period
on record. In first place is 2020 with an average of 78.8 degrees. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 94 75 95 76 98 / 20 10 10 0 20
Houston (IAH) 95 77 97 77 97 / 30 20 40 0 40
Galveston (GLS) 91 82 91 82 92 / 30 20 30 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$
Stratton20
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Seems like their is disagreement with the front by the models, CMC wants to stall the front for most of the week while the GFS pushes the front into the gulf
Cromagnum
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All this nice rain and every drop of it has dodged, or reformed just out of range of my yard.
Stratton20
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Getting a big thunderstorm here in Katy!
unome
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jasons2k wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 5:45 pm Gunite is in. It needs to cure before they can do much else except some plumbing work for awhile. We have passed the critical excavation/gunite stage so it can pour all it wants to now!

We got a surprise shower of .26” early this am and that was perfect timing, actually.

nice... storms missed us by feet this afternoon, I swear...
Stratton20
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18z GEFS ensemble is hinting at possible tropical development in the gulf , in the 8-10 day window from now, Euro ensembles not showing anything, something to watch though
Cromagnum
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If my luck wasn't bad I wouldn't have luck at all. Good storms formed right on top of us, but dropped nothing. Pouring just down the street now. So lame.
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DoctorMu
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Cromagnum wrote: Sat Jul 31, 2021 2:32 pm If my luck wasn't bad I wouldn't have luck at all. Good storms formed right on top of us, but dropped nothing. Pouring just down the street now. So lame.
That was my yesterday. Not even a sniff today. Lawn looking crispy. It looks like fertilizer + 2% iron, then massive watering this evening.

*There's a chance* Monday evening, maybe Tuesday as the front arrives a little early.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1234 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR with southwest winds becoming more southerly this afternoon.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms drifting inland on the
seabreeze. Unsure if it will push all the way to IAH, but have a
mention of VCTS this afternoon. Sky clears out this evening with
light/VRB/SW winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 639 AM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021/...

.SHORT TERM [Through Sunday Night]...

Much like yesterday, today will see a return of hot and humid
temperatures along with afternoon showers and thunderstorms. With a
mid-level high pressure still northwest of our region and a trough
over the Eastern US pushing further south, it will help steer a mid-
level easterly wave into Coastal TX today. Early this morning,
coastal streamer showers are expected to push onshore. By this
afternoon, rich moisture (PWs near 2 inches), SBCAPE of ~2000 J/kg,
and daytime heating will kick off afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. With weak synoptic steering flow, where these storms
initialize and propagate will be largely mesoscale driven. The mid-
level high pressure will be further north today compared to
yesterday, so this afternoon convective activity could initialize
and push further north as well.

Sunday is a similar story with morning coastal showers pushing
onshore and afternoon showers and thunderstorms firing off further
inland. However, as the trough over the Eastern US continues to push
further south, a very late season "cold" front will begin to push
south and encroach along our northern CWA late Sunday night.
Therefore, rain chances will slowly begin to increase for our
northernmost counties late Sunday night.

However, summertime heat is another concern today with our
northeastern counties (Houston, Trinity, San Jacinto, Polk and
Northern Liberty counties) under a heat advisory until this evening.
The remainder of our counties will still hover near heat advisory
criteria for this afternoon, so even if you aren`t located in the
previously mentioned counties, it is still important to practice
proper heat safety. By Sunday, temperatures will be slightly lower
and aren`t expected to reach heat advisory criteria, but will still
remain in the triple digits.

KBL


.LONG TERM [Monday Through Saturday Night]...

With the mid level ridge now out west, a deepening mid level trough
out east will help to push a cold front into our area. There are
some timing differences on this slowish moving boundary, but as of
now it looks to be in our northern counties on Monday and will slowly
sag southward on Monday night and Tuesday. Look for increasing shower
and thunderstorm chances with this front, especially Monday afternoon
through Tuesday. The rain chance and temperature forecast for much
of the remainder of the week then gets a little tricky for our area
due to the uncertainty as to if/when/where the front eventually stalls.

A drier and slightly cooler air mass can be expected behind the front
while the warm temperatures and better rain chances persist to the
south of the front. By the end of the week and into the first half
of the weekend, the front should be long gone (retreated back north
as a warm front), and with a return of south to southeast winds expect
warming temperatures and increasing humidities. 42


.MARINE...

Light to occasionally moderate south to southwest winds can be expected
through Monday. A weak cold front will approach the area in a late Monday
through Tuesday or Tuesday night time period and could stall near the
coast with north winds developing behind the boundary. Daily shower
and thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast and could increase in
association with the front. Locally higher winds and seas will be possible
in and around thunderstorms. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 77 97 77 95 75 / 0 20 30 60 40
Houston (IAH) 78 97 78 96 76 / 10 30 20 60 60
Galveston (GLS) 82 92 82 92 79 / 10 30 20 40 60
Stratton20
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12z Euro in the 8-10 day range is starting to show more tropical waves coming off the coast of africa, but this time these waves might hold together as they traverse the atlantic, something to watch
Stratton20
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DoctorMu will be interesting to see if that front stalls or pushes out into the gulf , GFS is suggesting we will have a lot of rising air/ motion in the atmosphere around when that front pushes into the gulf potentially, could see a sneaky spin up possibility next week
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DoctorMu
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GEFS and GEPS ensembles are buying into 1-3.5 in of rain into the area this week. We'll see.
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DoctorMu
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18z GFS run is drier. Another Lucy & football ?
Stratton20
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DoctorMu Hope we get some good rain from this front, my plants are looking pretty crispy
Cpv17
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Temps are boiling in the Gulf 84-88°F. Would hate for a storm to get in there under ideal conditions.
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