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Re: July 2021

Posted: Tue Jul 20, 2021 1:03 am
by DoctorMu
Cpv17 wrote: Mon Jul 19, 2021 10:23 pm
jasons2k wrote: Mon Jul 19, 2021 9:15 pm Wow it was supposed to rain and didn’t…
Shocker :lol:
A July front overperformed on advancing through Texas to the Gulf. It was predicted to stall near us. :lol:

Re: July 2021

Posted: Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:02 am
by Cromagnum
Very impressive looking rain right at and just off the coast.

But I guess that's that for rain today, unless this brews over the water and comes back.

Re: July 2021

Posted: Tue Jul 20, 2021 8:32 am
by jasons2k
Wow, so much for that 80% of rain today. Gone.
I’ll take it. Pool company says later this week is a possibility.

Re: July 2021

Posted: Tue Jul 20, 2021 10:00 am
by DoctorMu
Cromagnum wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:02 am Very impressive looking rain right at and just off the coast.

But I guess that's that for rain today, unless this brews over the water and comes back.
That front is way, way into the Gulf. The only chance of rain for us now would be if a tropical system in the GoM emerged.

At least we have northerly winds and lower dewpoints!

Re: July 2021

Posted: Tue Jul 20, 2021 10:17 am
by Goomba
Hi guys. Long time lurker. Probably won't post much, but read a lot. I'm west of Beaumont and we had quite a bit of rain overnight. Almost 2 inches and still raining, but lightly now. We only had 30% chance overnight and 70% today. I feel like that was the most for today, and it's enough.

Re: July 2021

Posted: Tue Jul 20, 2021 10:35 am
by Stratton20
DoctorMu its possible, not saying something definitely will spin up, but these fronts can always be a little mischievous in the gulf, just something casually to watch

Re: July 2021

Posted: Tue Jul 20, 2021 11:19 am
by DoctorMu
Stratton20 wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 10:35 am DoctorMu its possible, not saying something definitely will spin up, but these fronts can always be a little mischievous in the gulf, just something casually to watch
They always are.

Re: July 2021

Posted: Tue Jul 20, 2021 12:24 pm
by tireman4
000
FXUS64 KHGX 201130
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
630 AM CDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Overnight thunderstorms have pushed off the coast, leaving LIFR to
MVFR conditions in their wake. Potential for showers and storms to
redevelop later this morning into the afternoon closer to the
coast, with VCSH for UTS/CXO/IAH and VCTS for the southern half of
Houston and the coastal sites. SW/W winds at the coast, and N
winds further inland, becoming light and variable tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 427 AM CDT Tue Jul 20 2021/...

.DISCUSSION...

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are already occurring along the
Gulf Coast early this morning - and while it`s drier further inland,
there are still some isolated showers there as well.

Sporadic rounds of showers and storms will continue to be the
dominant weather story for most of the work week as an upper low
closes off to our west, but as we approach the weekend, an upper
ridge will build over Texas, and as the rain chances dwindle, we`ll
shift from a rainier and cooler summer pattern to a hotter and drier
summer pattern.




.SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Night]...

After the radar started to cool down for the briefest bit, things
have really started to light up again down at the coast. While it`s
a bit difficult to discern in radar and satellite imagery, surface
obs show pretty clearly the development of a mesoscale convective
vortex to the northeast of the Houston metro, in the rough vicinity
of the Tyler/Hardin county line.

As noted in the recent WPC mesoscale precip discussion, this really
highlights the Louisiana coast for heavy rain potential. But, with
that said, the offshore flow on the backside of the MCV will also
create a convergence zone at the coast, with a front-like boundary
becoming the main focus for rain in our forecast area into early
Tuesday morning. This flow pattern is also likely to really cut down
on rain potential farther inland - and while we are already seeing
that some isolated showers will still be able to pop up farther
inland, they will be cut off from the best environment for rain and
storms today. Because of that, I kept with the evening shift`s trend
of lower PoPs inland.

MCVs are notorious for being handled terribly by numerical guidance.
For what it is worth, the HRRR seems to be the most on top of the
situation, so my forecast in the short term leans pretty heavily to
the HRRR. This brings the MCV southeast towards the coast, gradually
pushing the most significant band of rainfall offshore later this
morning and into the afternoon. I`m not totally sold on things
getting totally dry given the inherent uncertainty involved in such
a mesoscale-dominated situation. So while I do bring the highest
rain potential offshore, I smear some chance PoPs back into
Southeast Texas, just in case we don`t see as much movement out of
this MCV today. Similarly, though the guidance would tend to favor
going totally dry inland of the Houston metro, I`ll keep some slight
PoPs up there.

For tomorrow, we`ll look for the deep upper trough to pinch off a
closed low overhead, which will then retrograde back to our west
over Central Texas. This is another situation in which the details
are frustratingly difficult to pin down, as subtle differences in
the location of everything in the setup can mean a big difference in
sensible weather for us. On a broader perspective, though, this
pattern is a very high confidence one for an unsettled, stormy
pattern to continue a little bit longer. We`ll eventually see a
change to that, but it`s not to come in this part of the forecast.
Read on for more on that.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...

With the upper trough expected to weaken (as it retrogrades SW), we
may be able to squeeze out one more day of scattered activity along
the seabreeze on Thurs. As it has been of late, things should start
out over the coastal waters/counties during the early morning hours
with development increasing/strengthening during the day as all the
convection moves inland. Activity is expected decrease by sunset.

Thereafter, a warmer/drier pattern will be settling in for the week
end as the upper ridge builds back over the region. The progged 85h
temperatures are hinting that daytime highs could range in the mid/
upper 90s across much of the CWFA for Sat/Sun. Lows will range from
the lower to mid 70s inland...around 80 at the coast.

Rain chances could return by early next week as this aforementioned
upper ridge is forecast to drift north a bit. This should allow for
seabreeze activity to start up once again and perhaps an occasional
shortwave or two to approach from the east (as they move across the
northern Gulf/coast).


.MARINE...

Winds have increased on the waters into the 15 to 20 knot range as
an MCV inland develops. Because of this, caution flags are up
until later this morning, when winds are expected to diminish. In
addition to that, widespread showers and thunderstorms are
developing, which will further increase winds and waves where the
storms are strongest, as well as introduce threats of frequent
lightning and heavy rain.

Expect at least scattered showers and storms to stick with us for
the next few days, as we sit in an environment that is conducive
to their development. A ridge will build west from the Atlantic
this weekend, which should put an end to this prolonged stretch of
enhanced thunderstorm development. At the same time, the surface
pressure pattern will respond with a tighter gradient, meaning
some more moderate to occasionally gusty onshore flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 89 72 90 72 92 / 20 20 30 10 40
Houston (IAH) 89 74 91 76 93 / 40 20 50 30 50
Galveston (GLS) 88 79 89 81 92 / 70 50 40 30 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston
Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...41
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Luchs

Re: July 2021

Posted: Tue Jul 20, 2021 1:10 pm
by Stratton20
I think the tropics might start to wake up or become more active around the 27/28th of July, a favorable phase of the MJO is expected to move into the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf Of Mexico during that time, promoting favorable rising upward motion, I suspect we will start to see an uptick in activity within the next 10 days

Re: July 2021

Posted: Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:01 pm
by TexasBreeze
I could get used to this mid 80s and breeze at almost 2pm in the afternoon! Not sweating outside so far!

Re: July 2021

Posted: Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:41 pm
by DoctorMu
Had a couple of power surges today, lost a lot of work and spending hours trying to recover. (*^%&E$*^&$!

Besides being hot as hell, another reason to pray for rain, clouds, etc...Texas' power grid and infrastructure are still in the crapper and Abbott and ERCOT have only worsened the situation. We're looking at brownouts and rolling blackouts in August if the Death Ridge returns after a year's absence.

Re: July 2021

Posted: Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:42 pm
by Stratton20
DoctorMu well I sure hope the Euro is correct, the 12z run favors weaker ridging over SE Texas by this weekend

Re: July 2021

Posted: Tue Jul 20, 2021 4:59 pm
by DoctorMu
Yeah, the ridging on Saturday peaks in south Texas, then weakens on Euro, GFS, CMC models beginning Sunday,

Ridging next week builds more over the Southeast, Limited showers for us, but a 20%-30% chance next week would be better than the usual CLL summer fare.

We may get lucky late week. Not counting on it.

The good news today is that we are 89°F at the peak of the day heat with a N10 wind. There's still enough moisture in the ground not to water yet. Will probably have to after mowing tomorrow evening and/or Thursday.

Re: July 2021

Posted: Tue Jul 20, 2021 5:02 pm
by Stratton20
DoctorMu id gladly take a weakened ridge with 20-30% rain chances than a heat ridge sitting right on top of us any day😁keeping fingers crossed this ridge stays far enough away from SE TEXAS to allow for some scattered showers

Re: July 2021

Posted: Tue Jul 20, 2021 6:19 pm
by DoctorMu
Widely scattered small storms riding in from the NE - very unusual.

Edit: Lucy & football again

The bad news is that NWS and Meteorologist Fowler just jacked up the highs during the weekend.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
347 PM CDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday]...

The majority of the thunderstorms today have remained offshore
today, but some thunderstorms have developed across the coast this
afternoon. These storms will move offshore in the next few hours
with some lingering showers continuing through the evening. A lull
in the precipitation is expected tonight over land with showers
and thunderstorms persisting over the Gulf. The north to
northeasterly flow that occurred today will become more variable
tomorrow, and then east to southeasterly tomorrow evening as the
upper level low moves into West Texas. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms begin to move onshore during the morning tomorrow,
and then expand inland through the afternoon as a diffuse warm
front/sea breeze moves through. Expecting coverage to expand
between noon and 4pm south of I-10, then north of I-10 between 4pm
and sunset. The diffuse warm front will bring in higher slightly
PWATS with outflow boundary collisions being the main driver in
where and when thunderstorms pop up. Breaks in the cloud cover
tomorrow will lead to slightly warmer temperatures with afternoon
highs climbing into the low 90s.

Fowler


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Tuesday]...
Wednesday night deeper moisture poised over the Gulf will start
flowing back into SETX as the upper low in WestCentralTX drifts
westward and upper level winds become more favorable for lift with
upper diffluence and speed max rotating around the low. PW of
1.8-2.1" ramp up. Expect rain chances in the morning near the
coast to expand inland and scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop a little earlier in the day and potentially wane a little
sooner in the afternoon as the upper ridging/subsidence increases
over the Gulf and expands into the coastal areas. Currently
leaning toward a slightly slower arrival of the subsidence and
will maintain the higher chances Thursday. Thursday night into
Friday should begin the warmup with a fairly abrupt drop in rain
chances. Temperatures in the afternoon Friday and Saturday should
be in the mid to upper 90s...upper 90s more likely on Saturday. :shock:
Staying hot on Sunday as the upper ridge builds in directly
overhead Saturday and then slowly starts to edge away on Sunday.

By late Monday as well as on Tuesday will get into easterly flow
aloft and could help to focus storms along the I-10 corridor as
moisture levels increase again.

Heat safety will become a focus again Friday through Sunday with
abundant sunshine, heat indices 104 to 109. May need heat
advisories this weekend.
45

&&

Re: July 2021

Posted: Wed Jul 21, 2021 8:04 am
by jasons2k
Rain chances are back to below 50% the next few days and then hopefully a break (for me at least).

Re: July 2021

Posted: Wed Jul 21, 2021 12:27 pm
by Cpv17
Just got a decent 20 min shower at my job in Rosenberg. Rained hard for about 10 minutes of that.

Re: July 2021

Posted: Wed Jul 21, 2021 12:30 pm
by tireman4
000
FXUS64 KHGX 211129
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
629 AM CDT Wed Jul 21 2021

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms again today, but lighter
coverage more like yesterday than seen in days prior. Best shot
for storms nearer the seabreeze. E/SE winds developing today,
becoming light and variable again overnight. IFR-MVFR level
clouds can be expected, but not anticipating CIGs at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 442 AM CDT Wed Jul 21 2021/...

.DISCUSSION...

Though our unsettled stretch chock full of periods of showers and
storms is not quite over yet, there is light at the end of the
tunnel, and a transition to the hot `n dry version of our summer
is set to begin. Well...dry by Southeast Texas standards, anyway.
For today and tomorrow, we should have the last gasp of days with
pretty decent coverage of showers and storms, mainly driven by the
daily seabreeze pattern. And even though coverage still looks
notable, it is not likely to be as widespread as it was several
days ago. This will be particularly noticeable farther from the
seabreeze.

Once we get to Friday, a more obvious change to dominant fair
weather should begin to emerge, and really take over for the
weekend. On the plus side, we`ll get a good, solid respite from
our stretch of rainy weather, and the humidity should back off
modestly. On the down side, where the sun comes out and the air is
drier, the temperature will go up. The one nice thing about the
month so far was that temperatures had been consistently running a
few degrees below seasonal averages - giving our bodies, and our
electric bills, a nice rest on the heat front. That comes to an
end this weekend. High temperatures will be near or above seasonal
averages into next week.




.SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]...

Like last night, some convection near the coast is beginning to
push offshore - this has already occurred around Galveston Bay,
but the rain is still over land back by Bay City. The radar also
shows a handful of showers further inland as well, though this is
pretty limited as some persistent, weak, offshore (or, at least,
not onshore) flow has helped precipitable water values drift down
to 1.6 inches or so per GOES-East.

The Gulf waters should be the main focus through the morning
thanks to a nocturnal land breeze. It`s able to set up among the
remnants of low pressure over the Louisiana coast that was the
mesoscale convective vortex we dealt with last night. But,
eventually, given how weak the surface pressure pattern is,
heating will win out and a seabreeze will begin to push inland
this afternoon. It will be the focus for afternoon convection
today, and should be the area with the best coverage of storms
today. That said, a weak upper low is drifting around to our west,
and should keep midlevel heights low enough for some isolated
storms to pop up further inland. So, while those north/northwest
of the Houston metro may not see quite as much in the way of
showers and storms this afternoon, don`t necessarily expect for
that area to be completely dry. Amongst this, expect highs to
again be near or just a little below seasonal averages, in the
ballpark of 90 degrees.

And if that plan for today sounds good, I`ve got some real good
news for you about tomorrow. The broad picture stays pretty much
the same to start the day, with a land breeze taking over late
tonight, giving way to a seabreeze for the afternoon. And along
with that, we`ll have another afternoon with some isolated to
scattered showers and storms with highs in the lower 90s. But,
though the end result looks pretty similar, there are the hints of
the upcoming pattern change here. The aforementioned upper low
will drift further west into West Texas, allowing a stacked ridge
to begin building in from the east. This will result in onshore
flow at the surface to enhance the seabreeze and push it further
inland. Meanwhile, ridging up through the column will introduce
anticyclonic flow overhead at basically all levels, and will
become a bigger factor in our weather in the long term.


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...

A deepening ridge of high pressure will be building into the region
by Fri (from the northern Gulf and this feature is expected to loom
large and charge through the upcoming weekend. With the skies most-
ly clear and light S/SW winds in place, we could be looking at some
warm daytime temperatures and heat index values for Sat and Sun. At
this time, heat indicies ranging from 105-110F are progged with max
afternoon temperatures in the upper 90s through the weekend. We may
need to visit the idea of a Heat Advisory for this time frame...but
heat safety should be a focus nonetheless (as it *IS* mid/late July
in SE TX). Some relief will be possible during the evening and over-
night hours as lows range from the lower to mid 70s inland...around
80 at the coast.

Rain chances could return by early next week as this aforementioned
upper ridge is forecast to drift north a bit. This should allow for
seabreeze activity to start up once again and perhaps an occasional
shortwave or two approaching from the east (as they move across the
northern Gulf/coast).


.MARINE...

A few showers and storms can be expected into the morning,
particularly south of Galveston Bay. Light and variable winds
will persist through tonight, but southerly flow resumes Thursday.
Deepening moisture will continue to give us potential for
scattered showers and thunderstorms one more time on Thursday as
well. Drier weather is expected after Friday as high pressure to
the east takes control, establishing southerly flow into the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 90 73 92 76 95 / 30 20 30 20 20
Houston (IAH) 91 75 92 77 95 / 50 40 30 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 88 81 90 83 94 / 30 30 60 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...41
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Luchs

Re: July 2021

Posted: Wed Jul 21, 2021 1:34 pm
by Rip76
So nothing going on with the front that washed out to the GoM?

Re: July 2021

Posted: Wed Jul 21, 2021 2:03 pm
by tireman4
XUS64 KHGX 211749
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1249 PM CDT Wed Jul 21 2021

.AVIATION...

Mostly VFR expected today with another round of SH/TS through
this evening. Activity will dissipate with the loss of diurnal
heating. A few areas may experience some shallow fog and lowered
cigs briefly during the night and early morning hours, but chance
is low at this time and have thus not mentioned it in this TAF
package. A few SH/TS could move into the coastal locations early
Thu morning and may affect GLS/LBX from time to time. VRB light
winds today will turn S Thu.

24

&&