August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
Posts: 2452
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Re: August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

Post by Cpv17 » Tue Aug 31, 2021 3:18 pm

jasons2k wrote:
Tue Aug 31, 2021 2:03 pm
Hot hot hot!
8 degrees warmer than me with a 15 degree warmer heat index :lol:

96°F here feels like 106°F

User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 3241
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

Post by tireman4 » Tue Aug 31, 2021 3:46 pm

000
FXUS64 KHGX 312033
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
333 PM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday Night]...

Convection has been slow to develop this afternoon but with
continued heating, feel there is still some potential for showers
and thunderstorms into the evening and will carry low end chance
PoPs through 03z. hat index values have also been warmer than
forecast with Galveston briefly reaching advisory criteria (108
degrees). Other sites have reached HI values between 103 and 107
degrees. As heating wanes, am expecting convection to end with
generally clear skies for most of the night with showers developing
near the coast toward morning. As has been the case for the past
several nights, it will remain very warm with MinT values ranging
from the mid 70`s inland and upper 70`s to lower 80`s near the
coast/bays.

On Wednesday, PW values are progged to increase to between2.30 and
2.40 inches in the afternoon. Global models bring a weak short wave
into the eastern half of the CWA between 18-00z . The extra lift
from the short wave coupled with daytime heating (convective temps
around 91 degrees) and the deep tropical moisture should yield a
good chance for showers and thunderstorms. 850 mb temperatures cool
a little and will a few degrees of MaxT values with high
temperatures reaching the middle 90`s inland and lower 90`s coast.
Precipitation Wednesday night will end near sunset with the loss of
heating. MinT values look similar to the last couple of nights with
low temps in the mid/upper 70s inland and lower 80`s coast. 43


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

Relatively deep moisture will remain in place over most of the
SE Texas on Thursday as upper ridging slowly begins to establish
itself over the area, with global models remaining in agreement in
showing PW values in excess of 2.0 in during this time. As a
result, a similar day to Wednesday can be expected with scattered
diurnally driven showers and storms mainly impacting areas around
and south of the I-10 corridor during the afternoon and early
evening hours. By Friday, however, as the upper ridge pushes
further into the Southern Plains, a drop off in moisture
availability is expected which should keep rainfall chances
diminished given the lack of a synoptic forcing mechanism through
the holiday weekend. As the associated area of surface high
pressure begins to depart eastward bu the beginning of next week
and upper ridging flattens, a more persistent onshore flow will
redevelop and precipitation chances will be on a gradual
increase.

Temperatures in the extended term are expected to remain near or
above seasonal norms. Daily highs will remain situated in the mid
to upper 90s, with heat index values reaching as high as 105-108.
Overnight lows will also remain elevated, staying in the low 80s
along the coast and upper 70s inland. As a result, those with
outdoor plans should remain cognizant of heat safety practices.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will be possible by late afternoon with
daytime heating and seabreeze interaction. Light S-SW winds will
persist through the the TAF period. 43

&&

.MARINE...

Both winds and seas should remain relatively calm over the next
week as a ridge of high pressure builds into the Southern
Plains/northern Gulf. Expect winds to continue to back over the
next couple of days, turning to the south by late this evening and
the southeast on Thursday. The pressure gradient will remain
moderately strong at best, however, and as a result winds should
generally remain below caution criteria for the foreseeable
future with seas remaining around 2 to 3 feet. However, the
resultant increase in moisture that this wind shift provides will
create favorable conditions for shower/thunderstorm development
offshore over the next few days, so mariners should remain aware
of current weather conditions.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 77 97 76 95 75 / 30 30 10 20 10
Houston (IAH) 78 97 78 95 77 / 30 60 10 40 10
Galveston (GLS) 83 93 82 93 82 / 30 50 30 40 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM...Cady
AVIATION...43
MARINE...Cady

User avatar
MontgomeryCoWx
Posts: 1551
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
Location: Magnolia, TX
Contact:

Re: August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

Post by MontgomeryCoWx » Tue Aug 31, 2021 5:38 pm

Today sucked weather wise. Good riddance to my least favorite month!

Let’s get meteorological Fall started!
Team #NeverSummer

User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 3241
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

Post by tireman4 » Tue Aug 31, 2021 8:08 pm

Goodbye to August!

Post Reply