August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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Morning update from Jeff:

A weak front will move into the area today and tonight and stall near the coast or just offshore on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Slow moving surface boundary is moving southward across north and central TX this morning with numerous showers and thunderstorms having formed along this feature. Local air mass will become unstable by mid to late morning into the afternoon hours as the front slowly progresses into the region. Expect numerous, slow moving showers and thunderstorms to develop across the region. Combination of slow storm motions, deep tropical moisture, and potential for cell training all points toward a heavy rainfall threat this afternoon over the area. Main threat will likely be short term rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour leading to rapid onset street flooding.

Front looks to push toward the coast tonight and may even move offshore on Tuesday. A slightly drier air mass will build into the region behind the front with rain chances focusing likely near the coast and across the Gulf waters. Will keep rain chances going for areas south of I-10 on Tuesday, but think much of the activity will be over the NW Gulf.

Enjoy the slightly drier air mass and “cooler” temperatures which will be more a function of rain and clouds than any actual cold air advection as the front washes out by late week and onshore flow returns along with the humidity. In fact with high pressure aloft and SSE/S winds next weekend heat index values could near advisory levels over the area.

Tropics:
No concerns for the next 5 days throughout the Atlantic basin. There are signals that the Atlantic basin will become increasingly favorable for development potential toward mid August.
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DoctorMu
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Energy/storms sliding west and south of us. Concerned about potential bust.
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Rip76
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DoctorMu wrote: Mon Aug 02, 2021 9:26 am Energy/storms sliding west and south of us. Concerned about potential bust.
Maybe not
JDsGN
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All of a sudden those storms just died heading into NW Harris County
Stratton20
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Just put my dog down today due to cancer, at least the weather was cooperating 😞
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Rip76
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JDsGN wrote: Mon Aug 02, 2021 12:36 pm All of a sudden those storms just died heading into NW Harris County
Wow, that was pretty impressive.
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Aug 02, 2021 12:39 pm Just put my dog down today due to cancer, at least the weather was cooperating 😞
I’m sorry to hear that. That’s tough.
Stratton20
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CPV17 Thanks man, its been a tough day, hoping for a nice thunderstorm to cheer me up though
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DoctorMu
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Rip76 wrote: Mon Aug 02, 2021 12:25 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Mon Aug 02, 2021 9:26 am Energy/storms sliding west and south of us. Concerned about potential bust.
Maybe not
Maybe so. :(

The next wave is dying again as it nears CLL. Hitting some lower level dry air.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

*Might* have a brief shower in an hour.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Mon Aug 02, 2021 1:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Rip76
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DoctorMu wrote: Mon Aug 02, 2021 1:51 pm
Rip76 wrote: Mon Aug 02, 2021 12:25 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Mon Aug 02, 2021 9:26 am Energy/storms sliding west and south of us. Concerned about potential bust.
Maybe not
Maybe so. :(
Yeah man. My post didn’t age very well. That was impressive kill action. We have a high over us?
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DoctorMu
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Rip76 wrote: Mon Aug 02, 2021 1:54 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Mon Aug 02, 2021 1:51 pm
Rip76 wrote: Mon Aug 02, 2021 12:25 pm

Maybe not
Maybe so. :(
Yeah man. My post didn’t age very well. That was impressive kill action. We have a high over us?

Just updated that post. Dry air around Navasota and south - maybe it fills in? Mid and upper levels look OK though..

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

*Might* have a brief shower in an hour.
Cromagnum
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Looks DOA heading into our area.
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DoctorMu
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NW wind. Complete bust.
Stratton20
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We got a new tropical disturbance in the Eastern Atlantic, Low chance to develop but its a sign that the tropics are about to get really busy soon, though I don’t understand why the GFS continues to show nothing over the next 16 days? Maybe the GFS is bad at picking up on the ACTIVE MJO phase in the pacific thats expected to cross into the Atlantic within the next 14 days or less?
guinness
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Aug 02, 2021 12:39 pm Just put my dog down today due to cancer, at least the weather was cooperating 😞
Sorry Stratton. That is never easy.
Stratton20
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Guinness thank you, and unfortunately we no rain here, main all that rain just fell apart
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DoctorMu
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The front/wind shift is around Spring. Absolutely no showers on the front...there are some showers north still running into dry air.
Cromagnum
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These dry fronts suck.
Cpv17
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Cromagnum wrote: Mon Aug 02, 2021 6:38 pm These dry fronts suck.
It’s not over. We will have another chance later tonight and again tomorrow. Better chances south of 10.
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DoctorMu
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We received about 20 drops. Calling it a trace of rain would be generous.

Welp. That could be it until football season, assuming no tropical mischief.
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