August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

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TexasBreeze
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Re: August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

Post by TexasBreeze » Mon Aug 30, 2021 3:43 pm

The added pressure gradient breeziness is making things not too bad in the shade at my place with low humidity and 68 dewpoint. It is hot, but it could sure be worse!

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jasons2k
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Re: August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

Post by jasons2k » Mon Aug 30, 2021 4:20 pm

TexasBreeze wrote:
Mon Aug 30, 2021 3:43 pm
The added pressure gradient breeziness is making things not too bad in the shade at my place with low humidity and 68 dewpoint. It is hot, but it could sure be worse!
Yep, my Monday forecast of “hot and dry” came to fruition. The deck form boards and rebar were done today. We took a spot from another jobsite that wasn’t ready yet and jumped in line. Got the text at 6:45am they wanted to head over. Fine by us! Kinda hectic but less hectic than last minute preps for a major hurricane!!

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Re: August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

Post by TexasBreeze » Mon Aug 30, 2021 5:00 pm

Definitely! It sounds like that pool is really coming along!

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Ptarmigan
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Re: August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

Post by Ptarmigan » Mon Aug 30, 2021 5:54 pm

jasons2k wrote:
Sun Aug 29, 2021 9:29 pm
Ptarmigan wrote:
Sun Aug 29, 2021 9:16 pm
Some parts of Jefferson Parish are flooding.
https://twitter.com/nwo313/status/1432172099209150466

Cajun Navy is starting to rescue people.
https://twitter.com/KevinAllman/status/ ... 0502245381
This first tweet is not confirmed. The quote cannot be attributed to any credible source and I can't find it anywhere else. Someone posted the same on Storm2K and I deleted it.
I went ahead and removed it.

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jasons2k
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Re: August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

Post by jasons2k » Mon Aug 30, 2021 6:16 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:
Mon Aug 30, 2021 5:54 pm
jasons2k wrote:
Sun Aug 29, 2021 9:29 pm
Ptarmigan wrote:
Sun Aug 29, 2021 9:16 pm
Some parts of Jefferson Parish are flooding.
https://twitter.com/nwo313/status/1432172099209150466

Cajun Navy is starting to rescue people.
https://twitter.com/KevinAllman/status/ ... 0502245381
This first tweet is not confirmed. The quote cannot be attributed to any credible source and I can't find it anywhere else. Someone posted the same on Storm2K and I deleted it.
I went ahead and removed it.
Cool. Thanks for all you do. It can get quite frantic these days with social media and it’s hard to ensure what gets re-posted on the forums is reliable. The mods on this forum and S2K try our best but we can’t check everything in real-time, all the time.

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tireman4
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Re: August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

Post by tireman4 » Mon Aug 30, 2021 7:34 pm

000
FXUS64 KHGX 302053
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
353 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday Night]...

A plume of slightly deeper moisture coupled with subtle low level
convergence has fostered the development of showers today over
mainly the western half of the CWA. The showers will gradually end
this evening with the loss of heating but some convergence near the
coast could allow for some showers to redevelop prior to sunrise.
It`ll remain warm tonight with lows generally in the mid 70`s to
lower 80`s. A series of weak disturbances rotating around Ida will
continue to move into the area from the NW. The disturbances coupled
with deep moisture will set the stage for additional showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday. The CAMs are rather aggressive with rain
chances on Tuesday and they might be on to something as surface wind
fields support strong convergence in the afternoon as the deep N-NW
flow around Ida collides with a late afternoon sea breeze. Fcst
soundings show a developing saturated layer in the afternoon with
PWATs reaching 2.20 inches. Will go with high end chance PoPs for
now and see how things evolve. Precip will end Tuesday evening with
MinT values remaining close to tonight values with lows ranging
from the mid 70s inland to the lower 80s around the bays/coast. 43


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

Not much change to the extended part of the forecast with upper
ridging beginning to build into the Southern Plains on Wednesday.
Despite this, the development of a weak upper trough/cutoff low
over the far eastern Gulf will promote fairly robust mid/upper-
level moisture transport through the remainder of the week and
keep chances of rainfall fairly elevated as a result. While storm
development will generally be diurnal in nature, PW values in the
range of 1.75 to 2.0 in through early Friday will allow for
scattered coverage during the afternoon/early evening hours with
the greatest activity along and south of the I-10 corridor. As a
result, have maintained PoP values in the 30-40% range in this
forecast package. With the upper low beginning to push
southwestward by late Friday/early Saturday and the ridge building
further, drier air will begin to filter into the region and PW
values drop below 1.5 in. A drier weekend looks to be in store,
though a stray shower/storm or two along the coast cannot be ruled
out during the morning/afternoon hours.

High temperatures will remain slightly above seasonal averages
with most locations seeing values in the upper 90s through the
remainder of the week and into the weekend. This will produce heat
index values of approximately 103-106 through Friday, though
values should drop heading into the weekend with the arrival of
slightly lower dew points as drier air moves in.

Both the extended EC and GFS are now picking up on an early-
season cold front approaching the area sometime during the middle
of next week. Still too far out to express any real confidence in
this scenario unfolding...but something to watch.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

A corridor of deeper moisture over the western half of the CWA
coupled with subtle low level convergence and daytime heating will
foster the development of shra/tsra this afternoon. Coverage will
be spotty and will start off with vicinity and see how things
evolve. Will keep showers in the forecast tonight with maybe a gap
in coverage this evening. Soundings look a bit more aggressive
with precip coverage on Tuesday with stronger low level
convergence and a deeper saturated layer. Sky conditions are
expected to remain VFR over most TAF sites. 43

&&

.MARINE...

West winds will continue to gradually shift to the southwest
through tomorrow and further to the south by Wednesday, remaining
around 10 to 15 knots during this time. Conditions may approach
caution criteria at times, though caution flags are unlikely to be
required in the near term with seas remaining at around 2 to 3
feet. With relatively deep moisture remaining in place following
the departure of Ida to our west, conditions will be favorable for
the development of scattered showers and storms each day before
the approach of an upper ridge this weekend brings in drier air
and lower rainfall chances.

Cady

&&

.TROPICAL...

We are now heading into the peak of hurricane season as September
approaches. While there are currently no tropical systems that
pose a threat to SE TX, now is the time to make sure that you are
prepared to act in the event that a storm does threaten us at some
point. Check to make sure you have an updated hurricane kit and
that you and your family have a plan in place to respond to a
storm.

You can find a list of suggested supplies to include in your
hurricane kit at www.www.ready.gov/kit.

Cady

&&

.CLIMATE...

The city of Houston has gone 365 days without reaching 100 degrees.
It will come close to this value later this afternoon and tomorrow.
You gotta love a west wind as well. With the flow coming from land,
Galveston tied a record high temperature of 97 degrees today. It`ll
be difficult to break the high temperature records tomorrow as
temperatures will be competing with the brutal Labor Day weekend
heatwave of 2000. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 77 97 77 97 76 / 10 30 10 40 10
Houston (IAH) 79 98 78 96 77 / 20 50 30 50 10
Galveston (GLS) 82 92 82 93 81 / 40 40 30 40 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Galveston Island...Matagorda Islands.

GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM...Cady
AVIATION...43
MARINE...Cady
TROPICAL...Cady
CLIMATE...43

redneckweather
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Re: August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

Post by redneckweather » Mon Aug 30, 2021 8:22 pm

jasons2k wrote:
Mon Aug 30, 2021 4:20 pm
TexasBreeze wrote:
Mon Aug 30, 2021 3:43 pm
The added pressure gradient breeziness is making things not too bad in the shade at my place with low humidity and 68 dewpoint. It is hot, but it could sure be worse!
Yep, my Monday forecast of “hot and dry” came to fruition. The deck form boards and rebar were done today. We took a spot from another jobsite that wasn’t ready yet and jumped in line. Got the text at 6:45am they wanted to head over. Fine by us! Kinda hectic but less hectic than last minute preps for a major hurricane!!
Was wondering how the pool was coming along since your update the other day. Good to hear they are making progress! Thanks for bringing it up, again.

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tireman4
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Re: August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

Post by tireman4 » Tue Aug 31, 2021 6:40 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 311130
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
630 AM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will be possible by mid-late afternoon
with daytime heating and seabreeze interaction. Light west winds
will shift to the south this afternoon and will continue through
the rest of the period. 05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 356 AM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021/...



.SHORT TERM [through Wednesday Night]...

A relatively quiet morning is expected across most of the region.
There is an area of deep layer moisture and convergence extending
from Galveston Island into the LA/MS coastline. With PWs near 2.0+
inches and decent low-level lapse rates, expect isolated showers and
storms along these locations. Most of this activity should remain
offshore, but there could be some activity around Brazoria and
Galveston and Chambers counties through mid morning.

Another hot day is expected across the region with afternoon highs
climbing into the mid to upper 90s. While a drier airmass will
continue to filter in from the northwest thanks to the ridge aloft,
winds at the surface will transition to the south, resulting in an
increase in low-to mid level moisture. Given that, isolated to
scattered convection should develop and expand in coverage late this
afternoon as convective temps reach the mid 90s. Deep layer shear is
lacking; however, forecast soundings display an inverted-v signature
this afternoon. This feature a top of mid to upper level dry air
will bring a threat of gusty winds with any strong storms. Showers
and storms should gradually taper off around sunset.

Rain and storm chances continue on Wednesday. South sfc winds and
PWATS in the 1.9-2.1 inch range, should be enough to spark diurnal
thunderstorms in the afternoon with the seabreeze. Highs will once
again reach the mid to upper 90s inland, and into the low 90s along
the coast. 05


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...

As the week progresses and then on into the weekend and the start of
next week, a high pressure ridge aloft will gradually build across
the state and then shift off to the west. This will eventually help
to bring much lower rain chances to the area with the higher values
closer to the coast and the lower values inland. Over the weekend
and into the start of next week, a majority of the area is expected
to stay dry, and the ridge should keep any potential Gulf tropical
development well to our south. The main story will be the high
temperatures (mid to upper 90s inland and close to 90 at the coast)
and the potential Heat Advisory level heat index values. All heat
safety precautions should be taken. 42


.MARINE...

Except for occasional showers and thunderstorms (especially through
the rest of the week), a mostly quiet marine forecast can be expected.
Winds will gradually work their way back to the south and southeast
through the end of the week and on through the weekend. Wind speeds
and gusts should remain light to moderate, generally staying around
5 to 15 knots (occasionally approaching caution levels) with seas
around 1 to 3 feet.

42


.CLIMATE...

With just one day left in the month and with the help of thirteen new
record high minimum temperature records, Houston Hobby is most likely
going to have one of their five warmest Augusts on record. Through the
30th, Hobby`s August average minimum temperature of 79.2 degrees is
their warmest on record (second place is 78.5 degrees last set in 2020).


Dating back to 1930, here are Hobby`s top five warmest Augusts on record.

1. 89.1 degrees in 2011
2. 87.0 degrees in 2021 (one day left)
3. 87.0 degrees in 2021
4. 86.9 degrees in 2010
5. 86.7 degrees in 2019

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 97 77 97 76 95 / 30 20 40 10 20
Houston (IAH) 98 79 96 78 95 / 30 30 50 10 40
Galveston (GLS) 92 82 93 81 91 / 20 30 40 20 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 9 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

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jasons2k
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Re: August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

Post by jasons2k » Tue Aug 31, 2021 2:03 pm

Hot hot hot!
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