September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

[weatherguy425]

Even the 12Z Euro members are significantly spread apart, 1 cluster goes to Texas and the other goes toward the NE Gulf

Still a spread, but the mean favors a more eastward track and the envelope has shifted east from this morning. We’ll watch for trends over the next 3-4 days.

[DoctorMu]

Friday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

A weak area of low pressure that developed over the SW Caribbean Sea late this week has moved inland over central America in the last 24 hours. Development is not likely as the system remains over the land areas of central America.

By early next week the system is expected to drift into the Bay of Campeche and possibly track toward the NW or N. Global model guidance is mixed on if any sort of surface low pressure will develop, although overnight guidance has suggested a bit of a better chance of some degree over development over the southern or southwestern Gulf by the early part of next week. A trough of low pressure that is expected to develop along the US east coast will likely keep mid level ridging anchored over the western US which potentially allows a door for anything in the southern Gulf to move northward next week. Upper level winds initially look unfavorable for development with westerly shear and it is unclear how far north this shear may extend.

Regardless of development, a large pool of tropical moisture will likely move into the southern Gulf this weekend and then begin to move northward mid to late next week.

NHC currently gives 91L a 30% chance of development over the next 5 days once the system reaches the Bay of Campeche.

Need a cool drink of lemonade!

Just missed a nice seabreeze shower IMBY by a just a few block. Left campus early - this place is a zoo with gameday just hours away now!

[Stratton20]

weatherguy425 we will see, im not that concerned about it atm but until we get a defined center of circulation (IF at all) models dont have much to work with, so we definitely will probably be looking at some big flip flops from the models in the coming days

[weatherguy425]

weatherguy425 we will see, im not that concerned about it atm but until we get a defined center of circulation (IF at all) models dont have much to work with, so we definitely will probably be looking at some big flip flops from the models in the coming days

Models have come a long way over the past twenty years. A center of circulation increases confidence in the forecast, absolutely, but it doesn’t mean a model can’t have a reasonably accurate solution without it. We just saw this with Ida. We’ll see how it goes. Still early in the game, like you said.

[DoctorMu]

Out in Fantasyland about September 18th GFS sniffed a major front, producing lows up here in the NW territories in the mid to upper 50s. Ha!

For your entertainment pleasure on this Labor Day Weekend!

[Stratton20]

weatherman425 yes sir that is true! But ya im definitely keeping my eye on this one just in case, lets just hope none of us lose sleep from the models runs ahead to come haha

[Cpv17]

Even the 12Z Euro members are significantly spread apart, 1 cluster goes to Texas and the other goes toward the NE Gulf

Troughs usually win out making the eastern solution more likely.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 yep that is true, im inclined to go with an eastern solution, but i definitely am not writing off a Texas landfall either

[Rip76]

Pretty intense rainfall rates here in Friendswood. Wow

[Cpv17]

Out in Fantasyland about September 18th GFS sniffed a major front, producing lows up here in the NW territories in the mid to upper 50s. Ha!

For your entertainment pleasure on this Labor Day Weekend!

Look at that urban heat island across Houston

Glad I don’t have to worry about that living out in the country.

[Katdaddy]

Wow that was intense. Intense lightning, torrential rainfall, and strong gusty winds.
Two outflow boundaries collided in NW Galveston County and had a significant
party.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
340 PM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021

TXZ213-238-338-032100-
Inland Galveston TX-Coastal Galveston TX-Inland Harris TX-
340 PM CDT Fri Sep 3 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will produce strong wind gusts across
portions of northwestern Galveston and southeastern Harris Counties
through 400 PM CDT...

At 339 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
southeastern League City, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
League City, Texas City and Dickinson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

[Katdaddy]

Yep, estimating close to 3" in 45 minutes in the backyard.

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
Northeastern Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
West Central Galveston County in southeastern Texas...
Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 445 PM CDT.

* At 350 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms with heavy
rain rates capable of producing street and small stream flooding.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Eastern Pearland, League City, Texas City, Friendswood, Dickinson,
La Marque, Webster and southwestern Clear Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

[DoctorMu]

Out in Fantasyland about September 18th GFS sniffed a major front, producing lows up here in the NW territories in the mid to upper 50s. Ha!

For your entertainment pleasure on this Labor Day Weekend!

Look at that urban heat island across Houston

Glad I don’t have to worry about that living out in the country.

Even in College Station. It's 1-2°F cooler IMBY vs the Airport and campus with all that darn concrete!

[Cromagnum]

Got a quick quartet inch yesterday but all the good stuff today has went around me or evaporated into nothing.

[Katdaddy]

That was some intense rainfall. 2.6” mostly falling in 45 minutes. A weather station half a mile to the SSW recorded 2.27” in 35 minutes.

[Texaspirate11]

Katdaddy that really was quite a storm!

[DoctorMu]

Ensemble speak for we don't know.

[Iceresistance]

I'm under a Marginal Risk of severe storms today, primary threat is 60 mph winds, there may be up to Nickel sized hail as well . . .

[cperk]

The 6Z GFS has a 984mb hurricane hitting the Houston/Galveston area on 9/14.

[Scott747]

That 6z system is independent of 91l and comes from yet another hybrid/pseudo set-up in the Caribbean. I'd have to look a little closer but I can't find the wave that triggers this one plus it originates more off of SA. The GFS has already been hinting at it but was burying it in the southern BoC so it isn't coming out of nowhere and is in a range that can't be immediately dismissed.

We'll see in the subsequent runs today if it was a one off or continues back to the southern end solution.