General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stormlover2020
Posts: 457 Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:04 pm
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Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:10 pm
Cpv17 wrote: ↑ Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:08 pm
Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑ Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:06 pm
Cpv17 wrote: ↑ Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:01 pm
Not expecting much from this here in the Wharton/El Campo area. Hoping I can at least get an inch or two from it.
You serious lol
Yeah. With the current track, the center would pass about 30 miles east of me. I’d be on the dry side. Hoping it shifts a lil west.
U Will tons of bands
Cpv17
Posts: 5234 Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
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Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:13 pm
Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑ Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:10 pm
Cpv17 wrote: ↑ Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:08 pm
Yeah. With the current track, the center would pass about 30 miles east of me. I’d be on the dry side. Hoping it shifts a lil west.
U Will tons of bands
I think the western side will be fighting some dry air so I’m expecting most of the convection to be on the eastern side.
Stratton20
Posts: 4225 Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
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Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:15 pm
Interesting to note that it looks like a LLC has been found farther NW than originally anticipated
Samantha550
Posts: 16 Joined: Fri Nov 30, 2018 10:07 pm
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Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:19 pm
djmike wrote: ↑ Sun Sep 12, 2021 12:56 pm
Do yall think Jefferson county will eventually be included on any TS watch/warning?
Donald at Lake Charles NWS said tonight or tomorrow morning at the latest.
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 3982 Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
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Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:20 pm
sambucol wrote: ↑ Sun Sep 12, 2021 12:13 pm
979? That’s a high end category 2
979 millibars is usually Category 1. It depends on size and ambient pressure. I have see 979 millibars in tropical storms, mainly in the West Pacific.
Scott747
Posts: 1488 Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2010 9:56 am
Location: Freeport/Surfside Beach
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Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:22 pm
12z Euro looks a little off early on. Ends up going in s of Brownsville and up through the King Ranch.
TexasBreeze
Posts: 942 Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:46 pm
Location: NW Houston, TX
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Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:42 pm
The Euro looks rough to the west of here so far... Cpv17! Close to Bryan CS too Dr. Mu.
Belmer
Global Moderator
Posts: 744 Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2011 7:29 pm
Location: Dallas, TX
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Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:49 pm
Euro showing 60 inches in Fayette County... ok.
15-20 inches to our west/southwest counties. 5-12 inches around Houston with the lower amounts being further east you are (opposite of GFS).
Blake
Boomer Sooner
jabcwb2
Posts: 180 Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 5:43 am
Location: Tomball, Texas
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Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:57 pm
Belmer wrote: ↑ Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:49 pm
Euro showing 60 inches in Fayette County... ok.
15-20 inches to our west/southwest counties. 5-12 inches around Houston with the lower amounts being further east you are (opposite of GFS).
When will you know if these numbers verify?
Belmer
Global Moderator
Posts: 744 Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2011 7:29 pm
Location: Dallas, TX
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Sun Sep 12, 2021 2:03 pm
jabcwb2 wrote: ↑ Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:57 pm
When will you know if these numbers verify?
I'd like to see a dominant low-level circulation develop that we can track. I see a vigorous eddy that could be it. Further NW than where NHC has it and did line up with the Euro a bit better as far as position. Euro has been more of the outlier on the extreme rainfall totals. 00z runs tonight should provide better clarity... I hope.
Blake
Boomer Sooner
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