September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stormlover2020
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Cpv17 wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:08 pm
Stormlover2020 wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:06 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:01 pm Not expecting much from this here in the Wharton/El Campo area. Hoping I can at least get an inch or two from it.


You serious lol
Yeah. With the current track, the center would pass about 30 miles east of me. I’d be on the dry side. Hoping it shifts a lil west.

U Will tons of bands
Cpv17
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Stormlover2020 wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:10 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:08 pm
Stormlover2020 wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:06 pm



You serious lol
Yeah. With the current track, the center would pass about 30 miles east of me. I’d be on the dry side. Hoping it shifts a lil west.

U Will tons of bands
I think the western side will be fighting some dry air so I’m expecting most of the convection to be on the eastern side.
Stratton20
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Interesting to note that it looks like a LLC has been found farther NW than originally anticipated
Samantha550
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djmike wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 12:56 pm Do yall think Jefferson county will eventually be included on any TS watch/warning?
Donald at Lake Charles NWS said tonight or tomorrow morning at the latest.
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Ptarmigan
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sambucol wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 12:13 pm
Ptarmigan wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 12:06 pm GFS has hurricane on Tuesday.
https://i.imgur.com/A3CL69G.png

HWRF has a hurricane and making landfall on Texas.
https://i.imgur.com/UjOup3F.png
979? That’s a high end category 2
979 millibars is usually Category 1. It depends on size and ambient pressure. I have see 979 millibars in tropical storms, mainly in the West Pacific.
Scott747
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12z Euro looks a little off early on. Ends up going in s of Brownsville and up through the King Ranch.
TexasBreeze
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The Euro looks rough to the west of here so far... Cpv17! Close to Bryan CS too Dr. Mu.
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Belmer
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Euro showing 60 inches in Fayette County... ok.

15-20 inches to our west/southwest counties. 5-12 inches around Houston with the lower amounts being further east you are (opposite of GFS).
Blake
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jabcwb2
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Belmer wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:49 pm Euro showing 60 inches in Fayette County... ok.

15-20 inches to our west/southwest counties. 5-12 inches around Houston with the lower amounts being further east you are (opposite of GFS).
When will you know if these numbers verify?
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Belmer
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jabcwb2 wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:57 pm When will you know if these numbers verify?
I'd like to see a dominant low-level circulation develop that we can track. I see a vigorous eddy that could be it. Further NW than where NHC has it and did line up with the Euro a bit better as far as position. Euro has been more of the outlier on the extreme rainfall totals. 00z runs tonight should provide better clarity... I hope.
Blake
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