September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Kingwood36
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I saw this..it's true tho..lol
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Cpv17
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Kingwood36 wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:49 pm I saw this..it's true tho..lol
Yeah :lol: I saw that earlier
prospects8903
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Looking like bmt/pt Arthur area may take the brunt of this system
Cromagnum
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S2K folks worried about this one bombing out overnight.
Kingwood36
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Hell im. Starting to worry
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don
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prospects8903 wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:51 pm Looking like bmt/pt Arthur area may take the brunt of this system
Maybe with rains, but winds could be a bigger issue for metro Houston and surrounding areas now than before. Due to the system possibly being stronger because of more time over water, and the center's forecast to go right over the metro area.
Pas_Bon
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The rain has finally started in League City. It’s sobering to think it likely will not stop for days. Egads, I’m concerned.
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DoctorMu
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Ptarmigan wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:48 pm There is plenty of moisture from the East Pacific being fed into Tropical Storm Nicholas.

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That's a game change for rain, particularly if Nicholas slows. The center is still elongated, so I don't agree that it's reforming. There's a desire to find a circular center in a tropical system, when there isn't one. If Nick strengthens and forms a center, we have know more about where the path will be. But shear is waiting for Nicolaas when it heads onshore.

Rainfall will depend on bands attempting to wrap around. Given the Pacific firehose now present, there could be more potential for rain on we on the NW quadrant. We'll see.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Sun Sep 12, 2021 11:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Scott747
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I don't see any indications it's 'bombing' right now but it's clearly a different storm than the 10pm advisory.

Recon is turning around and we will quickly find out of there's a pressure drop. I'm guessing they are doing another pass so soon before coming out with a special advisory.
Cpv17
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Pas_Bon wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 11:02 pm The rain has finally started in League City. It’s sobering to think it likely will not stop for days. Egads, I’m concerned.
Yeah, LC is going to get pounded for sure. Rain and high winds.
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don
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The GFS and HWRF did a good job sniffing out the center relocation to the north tonight.
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don
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0Z GFS
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Texaspirate11
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Starting to rain!
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Cpv17
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don wrote: Sun Sep 12, 2021 11:12 pm0Z GFS
Hey that looks good to me! Lol
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DoctorMu
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WTNT44 KNHC 130259
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

Nicholas is not yet a well-organized tropical cyclone, with little
evidence of convective banding features on satellite imagery.
Observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the center is still not very well-defined, and appears to have
reformed again, this time farther south. Data from the aircraft
indicate that the central pressure has not changed much since
earlier today, and the maximum winds remain near 35 kt. This is
above the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Nicholas will be traversing very warm waters during the next day or
so, and within a moist, unstable atmosphere. These factors would
favor strengthening. However, moderate southwesterly shear
associated with an upper-level trough over northern Mexico could be
an inhibiting factor for strengthening. In spite of the shear,
the GFS model forecasts the system to strengthen while it nears
the Texas coast. The official intensity forecast is at the upper
end of the current model guidance. Given the uncertainties in the
future strength of Nicholas, a Hurricane Watch is in effect for a
portion of the Texas coast.

The current location of Nicholas is quite uncertain since the
aircraft-reported center position is within a broad area of light
winds and is well south of most of the deep convection. Although
the fixes show little motion this evening, based on the model
predictions, it appears likely that the center will shift or re-form
significantly northward as early as Monday morning.
This is at
least partially accounted for in the latest NHC track forecast, but
some northward adjustments are possible over night. The storm
is expected to move toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge
during the next 36 hours or so. The track guidance and the model
consensus has shifted eastward somewhat since the earlier advisory
package. This has necessitated an eastward shift in the official
track, and a northeastward extension of the watches and warnings.


Key Messages:

1. Periods of heavy rainfall are expected to impact portions of the
Texas and Louisiana coasts through the middle of the week.
Significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in
areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly
urbanized metropolitan areas. Isolated minor to moderate river
flooding is also expected.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to San Luis Pass.
Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.

3. Nicholas is forecast to approach the middle Texas coast as a
strong tropical storm late Monday and early Tuesday, and could be
near hurricane intensity if it moves to the right of the forecast
track and remains over water longer. Tropical storm conditions are
expected along portions of the middle Texas coast beginning Monday
afternoon, with hurricane conditions possible from Port Aransas to
Freeport late Monday and Monday night.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northeastern coast of Mexico and the coast of south Texas beginning
Monday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 22.5N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 24.7N 96.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 27.0N 96.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 28.6N 96.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 15/0000Z 29.9N 95.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 15/1200Z 30.4N 94.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/0000Z 31.0N 94.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 17/0000Z 31.7N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

CoC could reform, but the towers for now are well NNE of the oval-shaped low/center. I've indicated where the convection is blowing up.

We're damn near getting into now casting.

I will say this - the chance for substantial rainfall in Houston is high, especially with convection exploding and the Pacific firehose feeding into Nicholas.
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Cpv17
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It looks like a very slight shift west on the 0z GFS.
Cpv17
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0z GEFS also with a slight west shift:

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Scott747
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Recon is doing a traditional flight pattern collecting obs so it's talking a little longer. Now heading back towards the center and should get a new fix and if there's any pressure drop in about 30 min.
Andrew
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Bronwsville radar may be picking up on the still center but a little too far out to tell for sure.
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dp6
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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Special Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
1130 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

...NICHOLAS RE-FORMS TO THE NORTH AND STRENGTHENS...


SUMMARY OF 1130 PM CDT...0430 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 96.3W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM NE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
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